Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 66 hours



00z GFS develops this wave as it has shown in past runs.The track is a fish one,but lets see what this run shows.

I will quit for the night,so Meso or anyone can continue to post this GFS and other model runs.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm not going to say this doesn't have any potential at all but I think we're experiencing some Tropical Cyclone Withdrawal symptoms. Just remember the dozens of waves in the last couple months where they look great on Africa but then the ITCZ does its deal and it disappears like a Copperfield act. I'd give it maybe about a 25 percent chance of development.

[njweather]

Wind shear has been steadily decreasing, thus providing favorable conditions for development.

CIMSS Wind Shear Map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

There's also lower amounts of dust than before in the Atlantic, which is again, favorable.

The models are in strong agreement with this developing system, as are the atmospheric conditions.


If it continues to hold that convection and thunderstorm-activity, then we've got ourselves something to really watch...

[ConvergenceZone]

Steve Lyons talked about this wave saying that "We are going to have to watch this wave in the comming days as it has a well defined circulation".

If any waves are going to develop, this one will. It's been awhile I've felt this strongly about a wave emerging off Africa, but this looks like a contender here for sure. You can see the circulation already. this should be a long tracker too....I agree with Steve Lyons, this one looks really good.

[cycloneye]

[Meso]

From what I can tell the wave emerging off Africa now is a different system than what I noticed the GFS developing.I remember a few days ago the CMC was developing two lows that moved off at the same time,but the other model support was for the one behind it.

I noticed on the models at the one that develops is quite a northerly wave that comes a bit south at the end of Africa with the ITCZ.

From what I can tell the wave that develops from the GFS emerges in 72 Hours.Although the wave exiting the coast now has a possibility too.

[Derek Ortt]

wake me up when the models actually have some skill at predicting genesis

the events of the past week leave me with almost zero confidence in the models

[KWT]

To be fair Derek the models should be better at forecasting genesis of waves coming off Africa as there should be much more data from that area then say in the mid-Atlantic and they did nail Dean which was a African wave.

[cycloneye]

Visible image of the tropical Atlantic.Apart of the wave still emerging if you look closely,a nitid swirl is seen in the middle of Atlantic.

Note=The feature to look at a closeup view is working now so click to symbol in the upper left.

[KWT]

Nice wave for sure but its highly likely to be a fish, there a nice big low present over the mid-Atlantic that wil lsend this system NW/N as soon as it hits 40W. Looks like Dean when it emerged from Africa.
Looks like it wil be a long tracker which will be good for the ACE total this season and hopefully a nice strong system to watch, i'd like a Karl 04 type system!

[Gustywind]

Latest sat pic....looking always good with some tunrning and slight popping trend in terms of tstorm activity and... it has not emerges entirely:roll:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/ir4.jpg
Hey note that the dry air has gone...only very very light pocket of dust can be seen but for the end of the week end we can except a clear atmosphere without any dust *
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
Shear tendency is very low and continuing on the entire Atlantic Bassin
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7sht.html
This morning i was reading the discussion of Puerto Rico and it seems that models tendency is confirmed and concerning the future path we could see some changes with this ...if it verifies it could be the firt system at 15 North or higer as the upper pattern will be a little different if if if this happens too We have to wait and see!
"MID ATLC UPPER TROF FORECAST TO SHIFT SW AND EXTEND
INTO LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND AFFECT
THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO DRAW APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVES IN A MORE WNW TO NW TRAJECTORY AS THEY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
ATLC TOWARDS THE E/NE CARIB...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RECENT
PATTERN THAT FORCED DEAN AND FELIX ALMOST DUE W. GLOBAL MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE W AFRICAN COAST...BUT THIS
FORECAST STEERING FLOW...IF CORRECT...WOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM W
THEN NW AND INTO W CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...TIS THE PEAK OF THE
SEASON...SO EVERY TROPICAL WAVE BEARS WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL
REGION...REGARDLESS OF INITIAL MODEL IMPRESSIONS"...
Interressing things down the road:spam:

[punkyg]

This is one interesting wave.... hmmm i wonder if this is the one to come near the states.


p.s cycloneye is just as excited as us.

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view.Remember to click symbol to the upper left to see the images in closeup.

[Meso]

Looking again at the new GFS,it does seem that the wave lots of you are talking about (The one emerging now) isn't the one that deepens.There is a low that the GFS develops with the one emerging from Africa now,but if you look at the GFS of this system and the timing.



You can see the 48 Hour GFS showing the wave that it develops emerging with a 1008mb low.

[KWT]

As long as that low stays out in the mid-atlantic the wave will eventually be forced to turn NW-N and as soon as that happens the chances of a states hit goes down pretty rapidly and unless a new high forms over the top of it like it does to some extent on the 06z run then it'll head into no-mans land from tropical systems in the end.

By the way the GFs does create a closed low this wave

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

Then it decays it away again.

[cycloneye]

In other words KWT,those westward Dean/Felix type tracks will not occur for now.

[punkyg]

Well i guess we have to wait for the next wave. that one has all the model support, but until that wave comes we're just gonna watch and see if this wave does anything.

[cycloneye]

We will know soon enough,which wave is the one the models are bullish on.If this wave emerging now Africa develops in a couple of days,then this is the one.If it does not develop,the is the one behind the one that is still emerging.

[HURAKAN]

[punkyg]

So the question is does this wave have a low with it?
and is it building convection.