Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
I am taking a break for tonight.Tommorow will be another day of watching,looking at models,and looking to the east at that wave.
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- GeneratorPower
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- brunota2003
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
Don't know where all the model watchers are, or how to change the title, but the 00 GFS 78 hour shows a pretty good smack on NC.
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
.....and she's off
I have no clue if this works. I figure most of y'all know how to find this. Hopefully it worked for those who didn't.
TCW
.....and she's off
I have no clue if this works. I figure most of y'all know how to find this. Hopefully it worked for those who didn't.
TCW
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- brunota2003
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
Code: Select all
789
WHXX04 KWBC 060522
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L
INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 6
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.5 69.8 75./ 8.9
6 29.5 69.2 88./ 5.5
12 29.6 68.8 69./ 3.5
18 29.6 68.8 129./ .6
24 29.5 69.5 259./ 6.0
30 29.3 70.4 262./ 7.9
36 29.0 71.5 256./10.2
42 29.1 72.1 275./ 5.3
48 29.6 72.9 301./ 8.2
54 30.3 73.8 307./10.9
60 31.0 75.0 301./12.5
66 31.6 76.0 300./10.1
72 32.1 76.8 302./ 8.7
78 32.6 77.7 301./ 8.9
84 33.3 77.8 349./ 6.9
90 34.2 78.0 349./ 9.1
96 34.8 78.0 358./ 6.3
102 35.3 77.4 49./ 7.3
108 36.2 76.5 47./10.8
114 36.8 75.8 52./ 8.5
120 37.3 74.7 65./ 9.8
126 38.2 73.6 50./12.6
Further west and fully inland
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- brunota2003
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
0z GFDL, moves over Wilmington, NC on Sunday but it only as a TS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
Other 0z models:
0z HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
0z UKMET:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
0z CMC:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html
0z NOGAPS:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGA ... sloop.html
0z ECMWF:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
After looking at 0z models tonight, all of them still develop this system and either having make landfall along the NC or SC coasts sometime Sunday and then moving up the east coast (except the ECMWF, which dissaptes it after making landfall over SC). It may not be as strong as looked earlier in the week, but should still see a TS or minmal hurricane out this storm. Don't expect too much development this system, until high pressure builds over it on Friday.
0z HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
0z UKMET:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
0z CMC:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html
0z NOGAPS:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGA ... sloop.html
0z ECMWF:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
After looking at 0z models tonight, all of them still develop this system and either having make landfall along the NC or SC coasts sometime Sunday and then moving up the east coast (except the ECMWF, which dissaptes it after making landfall over SC). It may not be as strong as looked earlier in the week, but should still see a TS or minmal hurricane out this storm. Don't expect too much development this system, until high pressure builds over it on Friday.
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- HURAKAN
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483
WHXX01 KWBC 060737
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0737 UTC THU SEP 6 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070906 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070906 0600 070906 1800 070907 0600 070907 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 69.5W 29.5N 69.4W 29.7N 70.1W 30.6N 71.4W
BAMD 29.5N 69.5W 30.3N 69.1W 30.9N 69.7W 31.8N 71.2W
BAMM 29.5N 69.5W 29.6N 69.2W 30.0N 69.6W 30.9N 70.8W
LBAR 29.5N 69.5W 29.9N 68.2W 30.4N 67.1W 30.7N 66.3W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070908 0600 070909 0600 070910 0600 070911 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.0N 72.6W 35.2N 74.3W 38.5N 72.9W 40.4N 69.9W
BAMD 33.1N 73.1W 36.2N 75.5W 39.6N 70.8W 38.4N 63.8W
BAMM 32.5N 72.0W 36.2N 73.7W 40.0N 70.3W 40.8N 65.3W
LBAR 31.2N 64.8W 31.7N 61.8W 32.0N 58.9W 31.9N 55.3W
SHIP 52KTS 59KTS 52KTS 34KTS
DSHP 52KTS 59KTS 52KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 69.5W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 70.5W DIRM12 = 73DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 72.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 060737
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0737 UTC THU SEP 6 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070906 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070906 0600 070906 1800 070907 0600 070907 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 69.5W 29.5N 69.4W 29.7N 70.1W 30.6N 71.4W
BAMD 29.5N 69.5W 30.3N 69.1W 30.9N 69.7W 31.8N 71.2W
BAMM 29.5N 69.5W 29.6N 69.2W 30.0N 69.6W 30.9N 70.8W
LBAR 29.5N 69.5W 29.9N 68.2W 30.4N 67.1W 30.7N 66.3W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070908 0600 070909 0600 070910 0600 070911 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.0N 72.6W 35.2N 74.3W 38.5N 72.9W 40.4N 69.9W
BAMD 33.1N 73.1W 36.2N 75.5W 39.6N 70.8W 38.4N 63.8W
BAMM 32.5N 72.0W 36.2N 73.7W 40.0N 70.3W 40.8N 65.3W
LBAR 31.2N 64.8W 31.7N 61.8W 32.0N 58.9W 31.9N 55.3W
SHIP 52KTS 59KTS 52KTS 34KTS
DSHP 52KTS 59KTS 52KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 69.5W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 70.5W DIRM12 = 73DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 72.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- hurricanetrack
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I tell you what, looking at the cloud shots, it looks terrible. But that low is not moving east anymore in my opinion. Looks to be just sitting there or may a hair southeast- maybe.
Also, looking at the latest NAM and GFS, this has about 24 more hours of getting its butt kicked and kicked hard, then the upper levels become favorable. We see a well define low level circulation in satellite and on that recent QS posted somewhere....it is hard for me to believe that ALL of the global models will bust and NOTHING will come of this system. Not impossible for me to believe, just difficult.
This time tomorrow morning, we will know whether it is gone or coming to get us!
Also, looking at the latest NAM and GFS, this has about 24 more hours of getting its butt kicked and kicked hard, then the upper levels become favorable. We see a well define low level circulation in satellite and on that recent QS posted somewhere....it is hard for me to believe that ALL of the global models will bust and NOTHING will come of this system. Not impossible for me to believe, just difficult.
This time tomorrow morning, we will know whether it is gone or coming to get us!
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
6z GFDL still develops it and takes over Wilmington, NC again. This time it's a Cat 1 hurricane.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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- brunota2003
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Looks to be just about stalled out.
Now that its stalled lets see if we can get some banding like features out of 99L. Right now it looks like a typical winter like cold front with a low attached to it.
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