Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Hii punkyg, tkanks for the last reply, it seems that i'm nice lol you too lool
Humm i've noticed that you like lows with wave lool, but right now it's too early for that i tkinkthis thing seems really in shape...so we have to wait and see when he will emerges entirely...matter of hours punkyg.
But for my untrained eyes we have a moderate to high chance to see something growing steadily since yesterday !

[punkyg]

Ok i say around 5pm this wave will be off africa and into the atlantic, then we can really start making our predictions, but until lets talk about where it would go.

[cycloneye]

Senegal observations

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

Winds (Not Strong Winds) are from the north meaning there is a low pressure south of that area.Pressures in Dakar range between 1011 and 1009 mbs.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely , 5 pm seems quite reasonnable punkg. Did you read my last reply concerning the Puerto Rico forecast.....? I hope lol that will see the feature at 15n or higher but should it verifies as Puerto Rico mentionned it ..."MID ATLC UPPER TROF FORECAST TO SHIFT SW AND EXTEND
INTO LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND AFFECT
THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO DRAW APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVES IN A MORE WNW TO NW TRAJECTORY AS THEY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
ATLC TOWARDS THE E/NE CARIB...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RECENT
PATTERN THAT FORCED DEAN AND FELIX ALMOST DUE W. GLOBAL MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE W AFRICAN COAST...BUT THIS
FORECAST STEERING FLOW...IF CORRECT...WOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM W
THEN NW AND INTO W CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...TIS THE PEAK OF THE
SEASON...SO EVERY TROPICAL WAVE BEARS WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL
REGION...REGARDLESS OF INITIAL MODEL IMPRESSIONS"....humm very suspcious....as usual too early to speculate on track and i don't like to be in the wrong, but informative and true. So in other words Puerto Rico don't indicate a high fishy chance but a noticeable change in the pattern. As i'm the Leewards we have time to see if it can be near us or not:double: That's very subjective too don't forget it!
What are your thoughts on that punkyg?

[KWT]

Well they do say that is the forecast steering current is correct it'll head out into central.W Atlantic which would mean a fish system however they just point out that at this time of year everything needs watching ujust in case which I suppose makes sense.

[KWT]

By the way on the 06z this system at 384hrs eventually goes on to beocme a 975mbs low in the north sea just east of the UK giving a bout of strong gales!

[punkyg]

I think this is something to watch if the storm gets to 15n. did they say anything about the high building back in?

[Gustywind]

Yeah KWT, absolutely too early too said that or trying to extrapolate more. But for me hope that this trend can be confirmed because since two months the upper pattern were the same all the features drifting west and with a potential threat for the Windwars islands (below 15N and 60w) until 90w....
There's time we wil see

[cycloneye]

Gustywind In what island in the Leewards you live? I am in Puerto Rico.

[Gustywind]

Hii Luis i'm in Guadeloupe near 16N 61w:D

[punkyg]

Guys do you think this will actually make it north of the windward islands.
i just saying. it may not make it that far north, but you can never say it won't yet.



oh and cycloneye i always wanted to ask you this question. is this your site?

[Gustywind]

What you thoughts on this one?
I never see since July a feature approching 15N lol in spite of the strong upper levels , whereas that's amzing, based on a new tend given the models forecasts hope that we will see fish storms and none near 16 , 17N or near your location or FL?!!!!! I want to see that because that's too close for comfort Time will tell!!!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The system is almost completely at the Ocean...

[cycloneye]

Hii Luis i'm in Guadeloupe near 16N 61w:D

Beautiful island that I visited in a cruise.Guadeloupe is like a door for us here in Puerto Rico.If a system moves over or close to that island,a majority of them or move over PR or pass very close and the history since 1508 shows that.

[punkyg]

If this were the storm to hit florida i would be oh so excited, but thats just me. any ways this might not make it to 15n, but as Puerto Rico forecast said this may move to wnw or nw so thats something to watch.

[Gustywind]

Given the model forecats i tkink that we could if if if this verifies pass higher than 14 N lool , mother nature is so versatile hope "that the below 14n" wont'be the trend of the season but little more north too... put my island and Cycloneye in some troubles and US threat too....we will see punkyg. Vote for fish mid season and late I will be ok !:cheesy:
Note that since 2000 canes in the carib have been tracking more south than the past years...Ivan Joyce Dean Felix and some Td churning near Ste Lucia too before being cane... Here in Guadeloupe since Marylin in 1995...no direct hit at 16N.....only Erika 1997 ,Georges 1998 and Jose 1999 were close to our latitude without real landfall. Only a td at our latitude in 2004...being Jeanne after if i'am not wrong... All in all very very south path of this features since 2000 and amazingly for 2007, if there's a big change in the pattern they can fish

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This will likely do what 98L did if it gets lucky. Unless it can get to the base of the high near 55 west in about a week. Then maybe it will have a chance, if it go's north its dead. It will poof...This season reminds me a little of 97 outside the caribbean. The caribbean is a whole different animal then 97.

[windstorm99]

Folks its way to early to be calling this a fish lol....Lets wait a few days.

[KWT]

It may be too early to call it fish but looking at the bigger picture you have to admit thats a airly strong im-dAtlantic low and there is going to be a weakness forming thanks to the developing mid-Atlantic low around 72-120hrs which will make it hard for the system to not become a fish, it'll have to stay very southerly:

[Gustywind]

Yeah absolutely Luis, nice post as usual. Tkanks for my island, yours is beautil too, i discovery this one during a cruise too lol on the tallest boat of the world lool.
And you're very very right concerning the path when canes pass over us they cross your island that's remind the Herbert Box that's it?! i forget maybe i'm wrong lol.
Whereas, usually when Guadeloupe has good chances to be hit Puerto rico too...remember Marylin Georges Jose... Very beautifull island of Puerto rico