Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[Sanibel]

Watch the southern curved convection. It will carry energy into the center if it gets going. Felix had a similar band of southern curved convection when it was still unknown.

[Meso]

GFS shows a low of 1010mb with the wave in 24 hours

[Zardoz]

Hmmmm. Look what's happening to the wave at 9N 37W. Does the same fate await this wave?

Central Atlantic Rainbow

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072s.gif

As you can see,once again it's developing the wave behind it that I've been calling for.Or so it looks

[windstorm99]

Still looks good...

[KWT]

GFS once again develops both lows and once again decays the first in favor of the second.
I actually think the first system is more likely to form as the second system is much more likely to injest some of the drier air to its N/NE if it tries to develop and the second one should protect the wave coming off Africa now from any dry air.

[punkyg]

Hi i'm back any one have any new pics of this wave?
i need to know how it looks now.

[windstorm99]

Hi i'm back any one have any new pics of this wave?
i need to know how it looks now.

[windstorm99]

If this wave holds some covection i believe we will see another invest in the next day or two

[punkyg]

Hi i'm back any one have any new pics of this wave?
i need to know how it looks now.

So thats the latest one? man i seen that one. looks like i'll have to wait.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like most of it is getting locked up in the ITCZ. Yes we have to watch the northern part near 12-14 north...But development should be very slow, with the dry air.

[windstorm99]

Looks like most of it is getting locked up in the ITCZ. Yes we have to watch the northern part near 12-14 north...But development should be very slow, with the dry air.

Dry air!Youve got to be kidding this is in a very moist environment with the SAL almost complete gone from this area.

SAL view

[punkyg]

Atleast some agrees with me that we'll have to watch the northern half of this wave. any ways matt show this dry air this wave has to deal with?
i saw the loops and didn't see dry air.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm talking about mid level dry air/stable air which has caped most of the Atlatic. Also eastly shear on the base of the subtropical high. I don't see it devleoping in the next 24-36 hours,,,worth watching. But I would not put any stock in the GFS after 99L.

[punkyg]

Well can you show us matt.

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120s.gif

Looking like a fish.I`m wondering,this thread's been hijacked from the original wave I meant Wondering if there shouldn't be 2 threads.One for the one currently exiting africa and the one the models are picking up on Oh well,if the first one poofs I guess we could just use this thread for the second one,but if they both hold up they should probably be given each a seperate thread

[KWT]

As I said to Derek Matt 99L and this wave are two rather different set-ups, this one from Africa should have some decent data going into the models while 99L is spinning in an area where data will be sparse.

Easterly shear really probably isn't all that strong as the subtropical high isn't all that strong right now and located further west of this wave:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006s.gif

However there may be an increase as that high drifts eastwards and strengthens which may be why GFS kills off the first closed low.

[cycloneye]

Meso,I am becoming into doubt that this is the wave the models develop,as I now see that the wave behind is not too far from the coast.Lets see what happens with both of these waves to see which one develops,or both,one and the other no, or none.

[punkyg]

Ok so its really the next wave that has the model support? if so bummer!
oh what ever. is there finally a new pic of this wave? or was the picture cycloneye posted the new one.

cycloneye you never answer my question. Is this your site?

[cycloneye]

cycloneye you never answer my question. Is this your site?

I didnt saw it until now.Not my site.mf_dolphin and chadtm80 created this weather community board for all of you participate in the many forums it has.