Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[fci]

I'd be very cautious trusting those shear maps that say low shear anywhere near 99L. The shear maps are only as good as the data used to initialize them, which is sparse. Take a look at a long-term WV loop and you'll see a very strong jet core digging south of the upper low and south of the LLC. Shear isn't about to drop off anytime soon. Chances of development have diminished considerably, probably less than 10% now. I think Dr. McCoy is walking up to the microphone to make an announcement this afternoon.

Is it dead Jim?

[windstorm99]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061522
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

[cpdaman]

never mind

[Ed Mahmoud]

Been one heck of a hurricane season South of 20ºN this year with two Cat 5s, and a real yawner, a few pathetic sub-tropical systems (Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Erin) outside the Deep Tropics.


Well, if Erin had gotten its act together a day earlier, it might have been a hurricane at landfall, and it did some impressive stuff with flooding and severe weather in Oklahoma, but I guess I've been spoiled by 2005.

99L looks just sad to me. Looks like the LLCC is stretching Northeast-Southwest, and will eventually be absorbed into the remnant frontal trough.


Good for homeowners and insurance companies. Boring is good, sometimes. And in a cool phase ENSO, October may bring an Opal type surprise to the Central or Eastern Gulf Coast.

[LarryWx]

Based on the photo as of 13:45 Z, I had estimated it be near 28.6 N, 69.6W. However, the 14:15 photo tells me that it may have reformed further SW near 28.3 N, 69.9 W.

Based on the 14:45 Z photo, I think it is near 28.4 N, 69.7 W. So, forget my 28.3 N, 69.9 W position estimate from my previous post.

[windstorm99]

Notice this system remains non-tropical as per the NHC....Alot of floks on here were saying this thing was already tropical in nature yesterday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hate declaring a "well" defined LLC dead. Because as it finds its self west in 2-3 days it could form into something. I've seen it happen before....We will see.

[HURAKAN]

Latest.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Notice this system remains non-tropical as per the NHC....Alot of floks on here were saying this thing was already tropical in nature yesterday.

It does have a shallow warm core I think. Some systems have been upgraded for just that.

[KWT]

Well yesterday it probably was at least subtropical in nature, nearly all the data+pro mets said as much as that but alas it doesn't look all that tropical this morning.

99L isn't dead till that strong LLC is gone but unless that shear eases in the next 12-18hrs its going to have a very hard time keeping itself going. I'm still cautious about this system when it gets further west condtions may well improve but as others have said will there be anything left?
Quite possibly not given recent trends.

[Chacor]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061600Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 061600
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.0N 72.0W TO 28.0N 67.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH AN ESTIMATED
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB IS LOCATED APPROX 350NM SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 071600Z.//

Reissued.

[marcane_1973]

I say if 99L does not get going by Friday evening then it is time to kiss this baby goodbye. Looks like 99L is being absorbed into that trough. The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

[Chacor]

The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

We've just had two cat 5 landfalls in two weeks. Quiet?

[HURAKAN]

I say if 99L does not get going by Friday evening then it is time to kiss this baby goodbye. Looks like 99L is being absorbed into that trough. The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

It's not being absorbed by the trough. If you look at a loop the LLC seems to be almost stationary and separated from the trough.



Latest.

[windstorm99]

I say if 99L does not get going by Friday evening then it is time to kiss this baby goodbye. Looks like 99L is being absorbed into that trough. The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

Things could very well be much different right now like 04 or even 05.As we know 05 was an anomaly but my point is we are at the peak of the season with nothing out in the atlantic threatening the united states.I feel great to be able to say that!

PS!Wave of the african has the potential make things interesting in the coming 5-7 days.

[Category 5]

The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

ummm what?

Dean? Felix? Cat 5's? Quiet?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Except the Caribbean the Atlantic looks like we are going through a El nino like pattern. Hell a la nina is forming Yes I do know that two cat5s formed in the caribbean.

[Category 5]

Except the Caribbean the Atlantic looks like we are going through a El nino like pattern.

Last I checked that isn't a bad thing.

[Regit]

The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

ummm what?

Dean? Felix? Cat 5's? Quiet?

I'm pretty sure marcane was referring to this moment in time, meaning it looks quiet right now. Not that the season overall has been dead.

[windstorm99]

Come october when cold fronts start moving down things could get intereting with those warm waters in the caribbean.