ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[windstorm99]

Thanks for this update luis....

If that indeed is the case i dont see why bill grays 7 more hurricanes will not come to pass.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center September Update

It says that La Niña conditions will arrive in the next three months.Read the whole update and any comments that you may have,you can post them.

[Recurve]

Here is the press release:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – September 6, 2007

*** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, DC

Contact: Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA
301-763-8000, ext. 7163

NOAA REPORTS LA NIÑA IS DEVELOPING

Scientists with NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center, in today’s release of its
monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Diagnostic Discussion, say that La Niña is on its way.
“While we can’t officially call it a La
Niña yet, we expect that this pattern will
continue to develop during the next three months,
meeting the NOAA definition for a La Niña event
later this year,” said Mike Halpert, acting
deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.
La Niña refers to the periodic cooling
of ocean surface temperatures in the central and
east-central equatorial Pacific that occur every
three to five years. La Niña originally referred
to a cooling of ocean waters off the coasts of
Peru and Ecuador. NOAA declares the onset of a La
Niña event when the three-month average
sea-surface temperature departure exceeds -0.5
degrees C (-0.9 degrees F) in the east-central
equatorial Pacific, between 5 degrees North and 5
degrees South latitude and 170 degrees and 120 degrees West longitude.

The development of La Niña conditions is
supported by increasing below-normal sea surface
temperatures across the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific and stronger than average
easterly winds across the west-central equatorial
Pacific. “Nearly all operational dynamical
models, including the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction’s climate forecast
system and many of the statistical models also
favor a La Niña event,” said Halpert.

With La Niña developing, seasonal
forecasters expect wetter than normal conditions
in the Pacific Northwest and drier than normal
conditions in the already drought stricken southwestern U.S. this fall.
“These conditions also reinforce NOAA’s
August forecast for an above normal Atlantic
hurricane season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s
lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.

The Climate Prediction Center will
publish the next official ENSO diagnostic
discussion on October 11. The El Niño/Southern
Oscillation diagnostic discussion is a product of
the Climate Prediction Center in association with its funded institutions.
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic
security and national safety through the
prediction and research of weather and
climate-related events and information service
delivery for transportation, and by providing
environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal
and marine resources. Through the emerging Global
Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA
is working with its federal partners, more than
70 countries and the European Commission to
develop a global monitoring network that is as
integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

###

On the Web:
CPC ENSO Page
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... enso.shtml
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2905.htm

['CaneFreak]

CPC now says that we are in a La Nina. Finally, it is confirmed!!!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ndex.shtml

[cycloneye]

Now that La Niña has been officially declared by Climate Prediction Center,lets see what the rest of the season brings in terms of having more tropical activity in October and November.

[gatorcane]

well that means we could see activity all the way through November....October may be even busier than September..

[P.K.]

This would be very early to call it La Nina (And they haven't just yet). To quote from the NOAA press release "While we can’t officially call it a La Niña yet, we expect that this pattern will continue to develop during the next three months, meeting the NOAA definition for a La Niña event later this year."

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2914.htm

The Nino 3.4 weekly anomaly has reached -0.80C for the first time however with even Nino 4 dropping below 0C to the week ending 9th September.

[P.K.]

12/9/07 BoM update is out. As I mentioned the other day the weekly values have just dropped to a level that would be called La Nina if it was to persist and this advisory follows that.

CURRENT STATUS as at 12th September 2007
Next update expected by 3rd October 2007 (three weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: Early phase of La Niña?

With the exception of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), all ENSO indicators have reached a point that, should they persist at these levels until the end of the year, 2007 will be referred to as a La Niña.

Most critically, the near-equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to cool both on and below the surface, the Trade Winds remain stronger than normal across the western to central Pacific, and cloudiness in the equatorial Pacific is reduced. Together, these indicators suggest the atmosphere and ocean may now be reinforcing each other; a critical component in sustaining La Niña conditions for any period of time.

However, if a La Niña does evolve during spring, it would be late by historical standards. In the past, most significant La Niña events were established by winter's end, with widespread above-average rain falling over Australia's eastern half. With a late-developing La Niña, this typical rainfall response is not as likely as in past episodes.

Moreover, Australia's climate may continue, at least in the short term, to be influenced by the unusual state of the oceans to the north, and particularly northwest, of the continent. These have been cooling strongly since June when, historically, they would have been expected to warm as other indicators became more La Niña-like. This pattern inhibits the formation of northwest cloudbands, which are a major source of winter and spring rain for central and southeastern Australia during La Niña years.

[BigA]

I know that this is a sort of strange question, but is the influence that the negative ENSO values have on tropical storm formation in the Atlantic basin the result of the value itself, or the persistance of the value? For example, whould -0.8 ENSO conditions that have been around for 2 months favor formation in the Atlantic as much as -.8 ENSO conditions that have existed for 8 months?

Much thanks!

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 9/17/07 Update on pdf



The Atlantic is not behaving like there is la Niña in the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Summary: La Niña has developed in the Pacific

With the exception of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), all ENSO indicators showed an intensifying La Niña during September. Computer models forecast the La Niña to last until early 2008, making it almost certain that 2007 will be considered a La Niña year.

Most critically, the near-equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to cool both on and below the surface, the Trade Winds remain stronger than normal across the western to central Pacific, and cloudiness in the equatorial Pacific is reduced. Together, these indicators suggest the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other; a critical component in sustaining La Niña conditions for any period of time.

However, this La Niña has been late to develop by historical standards. In the past, most significant La Niña events were established by winter's end, with widespread above-average rain falling over Australia's eastern half. With a late-developing La Niña, this typical rainfall response is not as likely as in past episodes. Indeed it has been largely absent to date.

Moreover, Australia's climate may continue, at least in the short term, to be influenced by the unusual state of the oceans to the north, and particularly northwest, of the continent. These have been cooling since June when, historically, they would have been expected to warm as the La Niña evolved in the Pacific. These cooler than normal waters inhibit the formation of northwest cloudbands, which are a major source of winter and spring rain for central and southeastern Australia during La Niña years.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The above is the latest update from the Aussies (BoM).La Niña is here to stay until early 2008.

[Frank2]

Early 2008? Does this mean we'll end up with Jim Cantore's favorite form of weather - thundersnow?

LOL

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center October Update

Any comments are welcomed about the latest update.My take is that by June 1 2008,La Niña will almost be gone and Neutral ENSO will dominate for most of the season.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well we know were in a La Nina now. How strong and when it will end is anyone's guess. There a long way from determining strength and duration of Nina's. As for next year it's looking right now that it could be pretty active atleast in the Nino sense. If we all remember 2005. A weakening La Nina to almost a weak El Nino. We all know how it went that year.

[Frank2]

That's the point - a La Nina is forecast through early 2008, but, it's relative in the sense that it's happening during the winter months, so, any affect is minimized, as opposed to it having materialized during the most active portion of the Atlantic basins hurricane season...

So, just because it's stated that one is in progress, doesn't mean that the map will suddenly become alive with many systems - it's similar to having an near-total eclipse on a cloudy day - just because it's taking place, doesn't necessarily mean that it's taking place will produce dramatic results...

Perhaps this is something the metorological community needs to address, since their previous "we are now in a La Nina weather pattern" statement seemed to confuse many as to what might take place as a result - forgetting that the episode would mostly occur during the seasonal off-season...

[Jim Hughes]

Climate Prediction Center October Update

Any comments are welcomed about the latest update. My take is that by June 1 2008,La Niña will almost be gone and Neutral ENSO will dominate for most of the season.

Not so fast Luis.

[cycloneye]

Jim,explain why not so fast.

[Jim Hughes]

:uarrow:Jim,explain why not so fast.

Because this La Nina has a good chance of lasting more than one season.

[Ptarmigan]

Climate Prediction Center October Update

Any comments are welcomed about the latest update.My take is that by June 1 2008,La Niña will almost be gone and Neutral ENSO will dominate for most of the season.

Some of the most active hurricane seasons have occurred in Neutral ENSO.

[Jim Hughes]

I am surprised that no one has mentioned that the latest weekly reading for the 3.4 Region is down to -1.7 .