Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

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OuterBanker
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#1341 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:05 pm

Now some here are waving DNR's saying get over it, pull the plug it's over baby. Others are admitting you are on life support and are hoping that you will wake up. Then there's Joe who refuses to back down saying that you will be a sub 970 storm.

Me, Im just hoping for some rain, come on baby live!
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Re: 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-5:30 PM TWO at page 67

#1342 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:I don't know much about AccuWeather's clients or what they're expecting, but I do know what many industries that hire private meteorologists need in the way of weather information. Let's take the offshore drilling industry, for example. These are the most sensitive operations. I've sat down with engineers prior to the sail out of some VERY BIG deepwater production platform (by very big I mean multi-billion dollar operations) and they've told me that they need a quantitative assessment of the potential hurricane risk out to 10 days. They can't afford to depart port, make the slow 3-4 day journey out to mooring site then take 5-7 days to set at least 4 mooring lines if there is any significant risk of a hurricane impact. Such a strike could cause the loss of the platform and have the potential for damaging other nearby platforms and underwater pipelines.

Because of this, private meteorological firms are being asked for forecasts far and above anything that the NHC is prepared to issue (or needs to, given their main concern of public safety). How would you feel about issuing a 7-day track forecast on a tropical wave, predicting when and where it will develop and how large and strong it could become then communicating to a client the earliest time that a specific location could receive TS or hurricane force winds and the probability of receiving those winds? That's hard enough to do with a named storm, try it with a tropical wave. Like AccuWeather (I assume), we had the need to communicate the potential hurricane risk to our clients on the east coast because they pay us specifically to know of any potential risk out to 7 days and beyond. The difference here is that we only communicate the info to certain key people in each company. The forecasts aren't put out to the general public. Were the screen grabs from AccuWeather's public site or the paid site?

So the above reasons are why I'll sometimes say it isn't too early to make a forecast on a particular disturbance. That's what private meteorological companies have to do - make long-range forecasts when nothing is certain. We don't have the luxury of only discussing potential development over the next 36-48 hours. But we know that it is just as important to communicate to our clients when the risk is diminishing (as it has since late yesterday) so that our clients can "stand-down". I heard JB say today that he's sticking to his guns no matter what I guess only AccuWeather (or their clients) can determine if such a stance is in the clients' best interest. I like Joe, but he does tend to be a bit stubborn. ;-)


Thanks for this detailed response wxman57. I think that many do not understand the nature of your job as private PRO MET. I have a couple of friends like you that put their neck on the line frequently this time of year. Keep us informed.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1343 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:07 pm

It should be noted that on Accuweather's open site (free) where the graphic was it said, from Accuweather
On the other hand, might there be no storm at all? We can't rule that out either, though that appears to be the least likely scenario. Once the storm has taken shape Friday, we will be in a much better position to forecast its track and strength.
Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
One thing, if they nail it they should get credit.
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#1344 Postby Coredesat » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:14 pm

They do seem fairly confident, but they might be giving the models (which have tanked since the beginning) too much credit here.
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#1345 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:18 pm

Latest:

Image

SHIP S 2100 27.90 -68.30 90 93 180 19.0 - - - - - 29.79 - 82.6

A ship report.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1346 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:27 pm

Local met(same one who's been calling it an "East Coast hurricane" since Tuesday) still thinks it will be a TS tomorrow and possibly a minimal hurricane at landfall. We'll see. Of course we get nothing from it regardless.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1347 Postby storms in NC » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:31 pm

Brent wrote:Local met(same one who's been calling it an "East Coast hurricane" since Tuesday) still thinks it will be a TS tomorrow and possibly a minimal hurricane at landfall. We'll see. Of course we get nothing from it regardless.

Watch it will do nothing cause I want rain. I would be like the other guy that said he would give storm2k $5. I will give $ 25 if it does
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1348 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:33 pm

Brent wrote:Local met(same one who's been calling it an "East Coast hurricane" since Tuesday) still thinks it will be a TS tomorrow and possibly a minimal hurricane at landfall. We'll see. Of course we get nothing from it regardless.

Dont write it off yet. This morning I was about to, but Ive changed my mind this afternoon. It certainly doesnt look tropical right now, and definitely not a TC of any kind, but admit it...it does look better than this morning. If you look at the satellite image posted by HURAKAN, you can see that compared to this morning, there is more convection. On top of that, for the first time in its life, it has convection its west side, and its actually associated with the circulation itself and not the front it is attached to.
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Re: 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-5:30 PM TWO at page 67

#1349 Postby PhillyWX » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:Were the screen grabs from AccuWeather's public site or the paid site?


The image from Accu was available in the free domain. I'm not sure if it was on the paid side or not but I do know someone at another board had it hotlinked. I checked to make sure it was 'available' as well.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/ ... s3_430.jpg

If this is not supposed to be out there for the unpaid side of Accu, they really need better security to protect these images.
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#1350 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:37 pm

Latest IR loop shows convection firing right over the LLC. This thing is beginning to organize from the looks of the IR.
Image
Last edited by txwatcher91 on Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1351 Postby PhillyWX » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:39 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Local IR loop shows convection firing right over the LLC. This thing is beginning to organize from the looks of the IR.
Image


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

There is still some pretty good shear over it -- look at the loop above.
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#1352 Postby storms in NC » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:40 pm

You can see it is trying really hard to grab moister in

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html
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Re: Re:

#1353 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:46 pm

PhillyWX wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Local IR loop shows convection firing right over the LLC. This thing is beginning to organize from the looks of the IR.
Image


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

There is still some pretty good shear over it -- look at the loop above.


While it still has shear over it, it does not appear nearly as high as it was this morning. This morning, every thunderstorm was instantly being ripped away from the center. These current storms appear to be near or over the center. IMO it will begin to organize tonight.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1354 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:47 pm

Ridging at the surface(700-850 millibars) is fairly strong. In has turned the flow out of the west over the last 6 hours. The trough is starting to pull out, and should pull out more as more upper level ridging forms north of the system in 12-24 hours. The ULL should cut off just to the southwest of the system...The question is will that hurt or help the system? The models forecast 10-15 knots of shear over the system in 24 hours. This new convection could be the start of this. I think it very well is. This is why you don't take your eye off a strong LLC. I think it will go westward for the next 24-36 hours,,,,then a trough will start to break the high down around 48-60 hours. SC/NC is the places that needs to watch this the most, but the whole east coast should keep the eye on it.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1355 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:51 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Ridging at the surface(700-850 millibars) is fairly strong. In has turned the flow out of the west over the last 6 hours. The trough is starting to pull out, and should pull out more as more upper level ridging forms north of the system in 12-24 hours. The ULL should cut off just to the southwest of the system...The question is will that hurt or help the system? The models forecast 10-15 knots of shear over the system in 24 hours. This new convection could be the start of this. I think it very well is. This is why you don't take your eye off a strong LLC. I think it will go westward for the next 24-36 hours,,,,then a trough will start to break the high down around 48-60 hours. SC/NC is the places that needs to watch this the most, but the whole east coast should keep the eye on it.


If it can drift west a little bit, it will be in much lower shear, according to this map.
Image
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#1356 Postby jaxfladude » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:55 pm

Hopefully this system will have minimal effects on the US IF AT ALL and the only one at that.......
Local TV(Jax, Fl) mets have all but given up on this system......
Last edited by jaxfladude on Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1357 Postby Recurve » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:56 pm

Thanks :uarrow: good analysis. But this I wasn't sure about:

Ridging at the surface(700-850 millibars) is fairly strong. In has turned the flow out of the west over the last 6 hours.


why/where west? Just trying to understand the setup.
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Re:

#1358 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:58 pm

jaxfladude wrote:Hopefully this system will have minimal effets on the US IF AT ALL and the only one at that.......


Actually, I hope it comes this way because many in eastern NC need the rain. Even if it does not do much, I hope it can at least give us a few showers or storms.

Latest IR as of 22:45 shows the convection expanding over the center, and not being ripped away by shear. This could be the beginning...
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1359 Postby Recurve » Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:05 pm

From watching the NW Atl rainbow loop, if this gets going now, looks like it would head for Daytona Beach. Looks to me like lots of sinking air coming in. The center would have to get down into the tropical air.
Is it getting cool up in NC and thereabouts?


The ABOVE post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#1360 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:06 pm

Recurve wrote:Thanks :uarrow: good analysis. But this I wasn't sure about:

Ridging at the surface(700-850 millibars) is fairly strong. In has turned the flow out of the west over the last 6 hours.


why/where west? Just trying to understand the setup.



High forming to the north of the system,,,with a east to west flow around its base. You can see the decrease of the shear west of the system. That should spread westward as the trough moves out(lifts out).


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_00.gif
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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