Depression to form in GOM??

[mattpetre]

While we all are watching 99L, does anyone else see an even greater chance that the tail of this trough is going to become something. I know JB discussed it, and it seems to me that there is some circulation beginning to occur in this area in the Eastern GOM. I apologize if there's already a thread for this somewhere, but I couldn't find it. I personally think this has some chance of becoming Gabby... everyone else's thoughts?

[punkyg]

Don't worry there is no thread of this anyways this might do something, but you know the drill wait and see.

[Meso]

I know the NAM is showing a closed low forming in the gulf.But that's all,and nobody likes Mr. NAM

[duris]

From New Orleans AFD this afternoon:

ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT HIGH WITH THE POPS THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS...THE MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WAVE IN
THE GULF. THE NAM MODEL APPEARS OUT TO LUNCH ALREADY SHOWING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF WHERE THE BUOY/SHIP DATA CLEARLY DOES
SHOWS ONLY A WEAK WAVE AT BEST...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS DEPICTION.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A LOW AS IT MOVES WEST OFF OUR COAST.
THE GFS WEAKER WAVE DEPICTION LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME.

[mattpetre]

It seems to me the greatest chance of a real storm is the wave currently exiting Africa, but we'll have plenty of time to conjour what could be homebrewed before that thing gets near the Antilles even. Seems like there are 3 possible locations for development along the current E. Coast trough and I'm just hedging my bets on the one in the Gulf. With the models looking to probably not verify on 99L it seems very possible to me that the real culprit could be the area near the Bahamas or the one in the GOM... guess we should know relatively quickly (by tomorrow) if any of those might wind up being at least a depression. I'm thinking something along this front will at least be classified a TS before it's all over, but I've not been right much so far.

[jasons2k]

Here is the NWS-HGX's take on the possible system:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

TO COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING HOW THEY HANDLE
THE AREA OF WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE GFS AND NAM WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYSTEMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. WOULD ALSO EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTA TO WRAP AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND PERHAPS WORK OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY. DECIDED TO
NOT GO WITH THE NAM HANDLING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. INSTEAD TOOK THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS TRANSLATES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY.

[JonathanBelles]

TITAN shows it on the local news too.

[wiggles]

The local mets in New Orleans do not seem to think the wave in the gulf will develope. They just see it as a chance for rain

[wxman57]

I mentioned the area of storms out there in my morning briefing to a major oil company. But I wasn't thinking THAT area might develop over the next 3-5 days. Wind shear across the Gulf is extremely high and will probably continue to be high for the next 3-5 days. Heck, even the Canadian isn't developing it. When you start looking at the NAM forecasts for potential tropical development then you're really getting desperate. I plan to enjoy a nice quiet weekend at home (Fri-Sun) with no east coast or Gulf storm.

You hear that 99L!!

[fasterdisaster]

That's not the tail of the trough, it's a portion of Felix's remnants, and development's chances are zero to nil unfortunately. Wind shear is horrible, as said before, and it's already a sheared piece of poop by Felix's other remnants.

[HURAKAN]

The area associated with Felix's remnents is in the BOC, while the area that Accuweather is calling is in the EGOM. Two very different areas.

[xironman]

Since it is not too busy, could I learn a little bit about reading a model. Here is Saturday from the GFS at PSU http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFST ... gfs48.html. Now I had thought that the "850-250MB ZONAL SHEAR" was a general prediction of the shear for that time period. Shear would seem low over the majority of the gulf but I guess the real shear is actually high, could anyone clarify?

[mattpetre]

Yes, I was definately talking about the area in the E. GOM not the one in the BOC. Looks like the shear isn't that high over the central and W. GOM so I don't see why this can't develop some as it moves westward. Would never be anything bigger than Erin probably, but interesting to watch I believe.

I have a feeling this will be the best thing within 500 miles of the US to watch tomorrow (Friday). The storms appeard to be persisting in the same general area and still getting some sort of rotation although I can't really tell what level it's appearing. Quikscat of this area may be interesting tomorrow morning IMO.

[srainhoutx]

Erin did enough to severely flood parts of OK and messed things up in SE TX/SW LA as well with the heavy rains.

[Wx_Warrior]

Looks like an ULL to me

[Stormcenter]

Looks like an ULL to me

It's a tropical wave.

[vaffie]

You can see the latest NAM model here. It clearly shows the development of a closed low ultimately developing in two-three days in the west gulf drifting nw towards the Texas Coast.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_0z/wrfloopw.html
The development-happy 0Z Canadian has now jumped into the bandwagon, showing a weak closed low forming in 3-4 days and hitting eastern Louisiana.

The GFS and UKMET also appear to have a weak surface reflection of it in 48 hours.

Pressures are very high in the Eastern Gulf, but it is interesting to note that the only buoy in the Gulf of Mexico with a negative pressure tendency (very slight however)--meaning that it's pressure has fallen over 3 hours is the one --42003 that is sitting near this wave's convection. Note it's pressure though--1016! Worth watching this wave though.

07/05 42003 25.8 -85.7 29.6 25.3 090 4 G 6 130 8 1016.0 -0.4 30.8 0.5 7 42003


Excerpt from the Houston/Galveston Forecast discussion:


OVER THE WEEKEND THE GFS AND NAM WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYSTEMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. WOULD ALSO EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTA TO WRAP AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND PERHAPS WORK OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY. DECIDED TO
NOT GO WITH THE NAM HANDLING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. INSTEAD TOOK THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS TRANSLATES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS STILL LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS WERE
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AS THE GFS. EVEN WITH THE GFS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FELT THAT THE MODEL WAS TOO COLD AND THAT DAYTIME HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR. HOPEFULLY THE NEXT FEW RUNS OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS
WILL GIVE A CLOSER SOLUTION.

[WindRunner]

Since it is not too busy, could I learn a little bit about reading a model. Here is Saturday from the GFS at PSU http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFST ... gfs48.html. Now I had thought that the "850-250MB ZONAL SHEAR" was a general prediction of the shear for that time period. Shear would seem low over the majority of the gulf but I guess the real shear is actually high, could anyone clarify?

Note the units . . . although nothing is specified under +/-8 meters per second, the values above that are shaded. The key here is to realize what 8m/s is . . . it's about 16kts. Not ridiculously high, but then you see a little dark area in the west central Gulf? The 20m/s dot? That'd be 40kts . . . making cyclogenesis a definate no-go around that thing.

[xironman]

Thanks WindRunner, now I understand, cool.

[ronjon]

Shear drops off just to the west of this disturbance into the western gulf to less than 20 kts. The CMC now develops it and some vorticity is noted in the latest GFS run. This one bears watching especially since the GOM is basically untapped of its heat potential so far this season.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html