Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[CourierPR]

Bastardi calls for a system to approach Puerto Rico next week and then possibly Florida.

[alienstorm]

He is referring to the one that is a hugh wave with no convection around 40 -45 west. The idea is once this reaches 50 west convention will increase and we may possibly have a storm.

[NateFLA]

He is referring to the one that is a hugh wave with no convection around 40 -45 west. The idea is once this reaches 50 west convention will increase and we may possibly have a storm.

Whaaaaaat? I don't see anything notable at all at 40-45 west... am I missing something? There is way more activity ~ 50w

[NateFLA]

Check out the convection of the storms leaving the coast right now

[punkyg]

I think the next wave will be off the coast some time tomorrow.

now to the wave we've been discussing, right now i think its kinda being absorbed my the ITCZ i may be wrong, but it looks like it. just look at how much of the deep convection is apart of the ITCZ.

Oh and also i tried to see if they put a low with this wave, but it looks like
they really didn't anything up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[Gustywind]

No low right now punkyg:spam:
Just wait a little and will see what happens . For my self my agree with you very very deep convection all the ingredients seem good for something cooking, and we can except clear atmosphere for Monday or Before in the Atlantic......
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[ronjon]

I tell you if something can get going there is absolutely no wind shear to speak of between 30W and 60W below 20 deg north latitude. These are absolutely ideal conditions (if the moisture and low level convergence is there) for development.

[HURAKAN]

There is some SAL:





Usually not favorable for development.

[windstorm99]

That SAL is very weak in nature look at the scale.

[Gustywind]

Very light sal hurakan!, when i see Dean and Felixx with much more sal than that, i tkink you're really joking guy only a small pocket near the north of the CV islands... on a weaken trend, sure this pocket will gone this week end... and that's stable air no subsidence!!!! As i mentionned since this morning and confirmed by the last post of Ronjon....no shear or very very little , sufficient moisture... developpement should occur maybe more rapidly than we are expected. Keep in mind that we're entering the peak of the season, all seems ok for something in the next couple of days....

[punkyg]

Well right now i wanna see what it does. theres a possibility this could actually gain convection or fade like the rest of the waves.

John drop the beat and bring it back back back

[Gustywind]

Looking very nice
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb.jpg
Seems that more convection has developped slightly on the nothern part of the twave... or my eyes are deceiving me!:roll: lool
We can see some turning in the low level clouds and a fair amount of MOISTURE in all directions
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html

[punkyg]

Right now i do believe this wave will merge with the one about to move off the coast.

[Gustywind]

Yeah punkg tomorrow will be more interresting we will be able to weight those two waves before they evolve on the area

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090s.gif

Here's 90 Hours on the 18z GFS

[Meso]

*bites tongue*



No more big weakness on the GFS

[windstorm99]

No weakness there.

[wayne56]

"Bastardi calls for a system to approach Puerto Rico next week and then possibly Florida."

Bastardi predicted a cat 2 in the mid-atlantic coast this weekend. I guess if you predict ever little swirl will develop you are bound to get a few correct. I like his enthusiasm but he exaggerates too much! Tone it down Joe

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD WWD CONTINUITY
OVER THE CONTINENT WHEN LOOKING AT MET-9 SATELLITE HOVMOLLER
DIAGRAMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROAD
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN
14W-19W.

[cycloneye]

If you read closely the 8 PM discussion about this wave,you can see that they leaved the longitud the same (17w) as the 2 PM one.And the last sentence about the convection talks about what that deep convection complex that is emerging Africa.What I see with this is that they are going with the more extensive convection complex describing as part of the wave.So in reallity there is only one wave not two,the one our friend Meso has mentioned many times as the one the models develop.