Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[MGC]

99L has been on life support today but........it appears its not totally dead yet. Looks like a burst of convection near the LLCC, could this be the beginning of something more substantial? I remember a few years ago I had all but given up on Alex as he sat off the Carolina coast a pathetic sheared system. Well, I wake up the next day and Alex is like a Cat-2! What I'm saying is that none of us know what is going to happen with 99L, all we can do is conjecture. So far I'm surprised 99L has not opened up it sure looked like that was the case this morning. Currently I'm 50-50 on this systems future. It just don't seem like it is going to spin down despite the hostile conditions.....MGC

[Thunder44]

I come home from work to see convection popping over the center. Although latest images look like it's being blown to east again and weakening . I don't this will blow-up that leads to development, but it's better than no convection. Still think this has a chance of development tomorrow.

[Air Force Met]

I hate to disagree with you, but since the LLC is still intact and convection is blowing up over the center, it is not dead. The fact that shear is lessening is also helping this system. Anyway, most models did not have it doing much until Friday.

I don't think a thunderstorm 60 miles long and 40 miles wide with relatively warm tops really qualifies for "convection blowing up over the center."

It's a thunderstorm...let's keep some perspective.

['CaneFreak]

I hate to disagree with you, but since the LLC is still intact and convection is blowing up over the center, it is not dead. The fact that shear is lessening is also helping this system. Anyway, most models did not have it doing much until Friday.

I don't think a thunderstorm 60 miles long and 40 miles wide with relatively warm tops really qualifies for "convection blowing up over the center."

It's a thunderstorm...let's keep some perspective.

At least SOMETHING is happening...LOL...

[vacanechaser]

I hate to disagree with you, but since the LLC is still intact and convection is blowing up over the center, it is not dead. The fact that shear is lessening is also helping this system. Anyway, most models did not have it doing much until Friday.

I don't think a thunderstorm 60 miles long and 40 miles wide with relatively warm tops really qualifies for "convection blowing up over the center."

It's a thunderstorm...let's keep some perspective.

At least SOMETHING is happening...LOL...

thats the dag burn truth....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

If you watch the shortwave loop you'll see whats about to happen. It's about to be launched to the east.

[HURAKAN]

06/2345 UTC 29.0N 71.0W TOO WEAK 99L
06/1745 UTC 28.5N 70.0W TOO WEAK 99L

Beginning to move WNW according to Dvorak.

[O Town]

Latest:

Awww, now anit that cute.
At least there is some convection going on now.

[txwatcher91]

I hate to disagree with you, but since the LLC is still intact and convection is blowing up over the center, it is not dead. The fact that shear is lessening is also helping this system. Anyway, most models did not have it doing much until Friday.

I don't think a thunderstorm 60 miles long and 40 miles wide with relatively warm tops really qualifies for "convection blowing up over the center."

It's a thunderstorm...let's keep some perspective.

Compared to this morning, it is huge compared to the few cumulus clouds that were swirling around the center

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

If you watch the shortwave loop you'll see whats about to happen. It's about to be launched to the east.

umm ??

what makes you think that

i just watched it and didn't come away with that

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

If you watch the shortwave loop you'll see whats about to happen. It's about to be launched to the east.

Its the convection deceiving your eyes...trust me...I see what you are saying...but you are not looking at it correctly...I've done that before too. The convection is twirling around the circulation making it seem as though an eastward jog has ensued. However, the steering layer at the low levels tells us that the opposite is happening.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[txwatcher91]

For the pro mets out there, is the LLC still under that thunderstorm near 70 W, or is it closer to the 71W that the Dvorak says?

[Ptarmigan]

99L has been struggling. Don't know if it won't be an invest by tomorrow. Could become an extratropical low or subtropical though.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Convection weakening, nothing unexpected considering we're still in DMIN and shear is affecting the system. 99L should flare up during DMAX tomorrow morning. For now, there is nothing else.

[JBG]

99L has been struggling. Don't know if it won't be an invest by tomorrow. Could become an extratropical low or subtropical though.

Is the term "invest" the same as a "tropical depression"? What is the etiology (source) of that term?

[HURAKAN]

99L has been struggling. Don't know if it won't be an invest by tomorrow. Could become an extratropical low or subtropical though.

If the LLC continues to be as defined as it has been today, then tomorrow 99L should still be an invest. I would like to ask the pro-Mets if 99L has already experienced the worse part of the unfavorable conditions?

[HURAKAN]

99L has been struggling. Don't know if it won't be an invest by tomorrow. Could become an extratropical low or subtropical though.

Is the term "invest" the same as a "tropical depression"? What is the etiology (source) of that term?

Not even close. An "invest" is just short for an "area of investigation," meaning, the system is showing signs of development and cyclogenisis could occur in the next few days. A tropical depression is a defined area of low pressure with more or less organized convection over or near the center.

Invest: A cyclone has not formed yet.

Depression: A cyclone has already formed.

[philnyc]

99L has been struggling. Don't know if it won't be an invest by tomorrow. Could become an extratropical low or subtropical though.

Is the term "invest" the same as a "tropical depression"? What is the etiology (source) of that term?

I think you meant etymology. Etymology is the study of the origin of words. etiology is the study of the origin of diseases...

P.S. I see Hurakan answered the question.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

If you watch the shortwave loop you'll see whats about to happen. It's about to be launched to the east.

Its the convection deceiving your eyes...trust me...I see what you are saying...but you are not looking at it correctly...I've done that before too. The convection is twirling around the circulation making it seem as though an eastward jog has ensued. However, the steering layer at the low levels tells us that the opposite is happening.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

I'm sorry, I meant the convection is about to be thrown away from the center again. In other words it's not going to persist. It did the same thing this afternoon. Apparently the shear hasn't changed. At least that's what I'm seeing.