Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

Gustywind · #181 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 7:58 pm

Looking good

with a big cluster of convection on the nothern part of the wave!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb.jpg

#182 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:10 pm

Gustywind · #183 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:26 pm

In this loop right now some real turning can be seen , looks very nice, tommorow we will see something decent as convection is on the increase!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-ir4.html
This wave has a huge size too tonight... things getting interressing !
:cheesy:

Zardoz · #184 Postby **Zardoz** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:57 pm

Gustywind wrote:In this loop right now some real turning can be seen , looks very nice...

Yes, just as every wave that comes off the African coast looks at first. I see nothing on the sat views that looks any different about this wave.

#185 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:07 pm

Convection decreasing as it should be expected as the system moves over water.

njweather · #186 Postby **njweather** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:10 pm

Zardoz wrote:
Gustywind wrote:In this loop right now some real turning can be seen , looks very nice...

Yes, just as every wave that comes off the African coast looks at first. I see nothing on the sat views that looks any different about this wave.

The thing about this system is that current atmospheric conditions are quite favorable.

Water moisture is high, wind shear is low (relatively speaking), Saharan dust amounts are very low, and this is the peak of the season...

Also, almost every model has picked up on this wave (this or the one behind it) and is developing it into a formidable system.

While this specific wave may not develop, it certainly has all the necessary characteristics...

Gustywind · #187 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:15 pm

In this loop right now some real turning can be seen , looks very nice...
He zardoz i wrote that because we can't said other things about this right now lool... :cheesy:

humm tkanks to tell it lool :spam:

Gustywind · #188 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:25 pm

Absolutely njweather , all the day i repeat that, in all my post i put frequently the wins shear mositure sal analysis...so we can expected that all the ingredients are ok for something happens with this wave i've checked moisture wind shear sst's, the season peak and the models....Whereas compared to Dean and Felix that's in THEORY the overall factors are much more promising...in spite of the very deeper moisture of Dean at the since his apparition. But right now it will not have any SAL on top of this system at least for beginning, just matter of days 8-)

#189 Postby **BigA** » Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:46 pm

Are we referring to the wave that is emerging off of Africa right now, or the wave to the southwest of it. The wave to the southwest looks like its convection is at a low latitude, but that it has growing convection.

Meso · #190 Postby **Meso** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:20 am

Looking good.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING
THE AREA FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 20W-23W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-18N E OF 20W
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

KWT · #191 Postby **KWT** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:34 am

Its hard to say which area is more likely to develop right now, tohugh the southern side looks to be firmly in the ITCZ so the northern side may be slightly more likely to develop and it does look like it already has some sort of cyclonic turning tohugh its obviously very early days still. A nice big wave however and so plenty of moisture to use.

#192 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:21 am

The first visible image of that area shows curved clouds in a big area.Lets see where the clouds concentrate more.Right now the southern part is with most of the cloud mass.

KWT · #193 Postby **KWT** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:30 am

Well both the GFS and UKMo 0z runs develop the southern mass of cloud and convection with a closed low appearing at 10N around 24-30hrs time, the UKMO takes it pretty much tothe NW and upto about 20N/37W though high pressure is re-building pretty readily to the north. GFS takes it that far north as wlel but a good deal further west around 45-47W at 168hrs. Given the high re-building we may well have a very long tracker indeed if this forms, one of those ssytems that gives 50 in terms of Ace!

Meso · #194 Postby **Meso** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:31 am

Seems like the first wave is now part of the ITCZ.With the wave mentioned in the TWD being from 8N - 18N.00z Models continue to develop it.

Gustywind · #195 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:45 am

Looking very good this morning, whereas concerning the trend of the future path...according to AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

525 AM AST FRI SEP 7 2007 all these waves should be fish-storm , seems that we will see a fish storm if the new upper level pattern occur :?:

"GLOBAL MODELS STILL INTENSIFYING MID ATLC UPPER TROF AND DIGGING
SSW INTO THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ACT TO GREATLY INFLUENCE THE STEERING FLOW OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...INCLUDING TROPICAL WAVES...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEXT WEEK...AND PULL THEM TO THE NW AND
N WELL BEFORE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. LETS SEE HOW THIS
EVOLVES AND HOW LONG THIS ALTERED FLOW PERSISTS".

So , should it verifies but we have to see if this scenario can be confirmed it will break the record " for a passing wave at 15N" :spam:

We have to wait and see....
8-)

Meso · #196 Postby **Meso** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:59 am

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 7N-19N
BETWEEN 14W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

from the 8am TWD

Gustywind · #197 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:00 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 7N-19N
BETWEEN 14W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

punkyg · #198 Postby **punkyg** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:58 am

Anything new on the waves?

Gustywind · #199 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:01 am

No punkyg

wait and see
:cheesy:

Gustywind · #200 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:04 am

Did you read my last post on the future upper level pattern Punkyg,what are you thougts on this....maybe we will see a fish , are you agree with that? :?:

Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

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