Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[txwatcher91]

It appears the center has finally begun to move W or WNW according to the IR 2 loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-ir2.html

Also, if once it gets to about 73W, the shear should really drop off.

[wxman57]

The little burst of convection near the LLC did catch my eye this evening. The key to development will be persistence. All it'll take is a little gust of wind aloft and the convection will be gone again at this point.

[Regit]

It appears the center has finally begun to move W or WNW according to the IR 2 loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-ir2.html

Also, if once it gets to about 73W, the shear should really drop off.

It does look like the center is moving W. The problem for 99L is that the convection is moving NE.

[HURAKAN]

It appears the center has finally begun to move W or WNW according to the IR 2 loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-ir2.html

Also, if once it gets to about 73W, the shear should really drop off.

It does look like the center is moving W. The problem for 99L is that the convection is moving NE.

Which shows that shear is still affecting the system.

[Bane]

It appears the center has finally begun to move W or WNW according to the IR 2 loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-ir2.html

Also, if once it gets to about 73W, the shear should really drop off.

It does look like the center is moving W. The problem for 99L is that the convection is moving NE.

very true. i think the difference is that it is firing convection up much closer to the center than earlier today. if it continues to do that until the shear lessens, it'll have a better chance to develop.

[windstorm99]

[txwatcher91]

It appears the center has finally begun to move W or WNW according to the IR 2 loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-ir2.html

Also, if once it gets to about 73W, the shear should really drop off.

It does look like the center is moving W. The problem for 99L is that the convection is moving NE.

Which shows that shear is still affecting the system.

But it is only at 71W, once it reaches 73W the shear should begin to lessen pretty significantly. Also, I noticed that it appears that it upwelled some cooler water which is probably not helping it.

[Brent]

Man the tropics are DEAD when ya'll are noticing this little pathetic blowup. I've seen summertime storms more impressive.

[Nimbus]

Derek mentioned earlier that the pressure gradient was kind of broad and shallow. That should keep this from bombing overnight (not that anyone would stay up to watch it). In the longer term as the ridge builds in we could see rapid intensification over the gulf stream once this makes TS status so there is potential for trouble from this dizzy little thunderstorm.

[windstorm99]

Man the tropics are DEAD when ya'll are noticing this little pathetic blowup. I've seen summertime storms more impressive.

Its a great thing if you really think about it....Things could be really be much different with a major hurricane baring down on the U.S. but thankfully all is quite.I suspect that will change in the coming week or two.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The ULL at 25-26 north/73.5 west or so appears to be starting to cut off. You can see that by it no longer attached to the "front". As it does that expect the shear to lessen over our system as the shear pulls closer to the ULL. You can see where the ridge is, and it is moving the LLC more westward at this movement. The trough is pulling out very slowly, and once gone a upper level ridge start forming in the area...The ULL should slowly move westward with our system...Yes the ULL should cause trouble for our system for the next 12 hours or so, as the shear stream should switch from a more troughing to a cut off ULL, the shear should follow our system. But should weaken to less then 20 knots. I think this has a chance to become a tropical storm Sunday.

[cpdaman]

where is the dang llc

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

is it at 28 N/ 70.35 or so W

is there really an ULL at 25.5 73.5 !!! i can barely see it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

if that's the case than i join the it's dead posts lol seriously

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC appears to be near 28.5-28.8 north/70.3-70.5 west. Near the convection...Moving very slowly westward.

[storms in NC]

Out of WILM

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EVEN A LOW LEVEL SWIRL THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
650 MILES SE OF CAPE FEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE
AND TO MOVE IT WEST UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE N.
HOWEVER...FIRST THINGS FIRST...LOW PRESSURE HAS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED...AND SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR HAS INHIBITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. TO BE SURE...ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SLOW...AND MAY WELL NOT GET UNDERWAY AT ALL SHOULD THESE LIMITING
FACTORS PERSIST. AT THIS TIME...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND SLIP BY JUST E OF THE AREA LATE IN WEEKEND.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
OF THIS FORECAST...OPTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER W
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM SW
TO NE SUN NIGHT...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD EVERYWHERE BY MON MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE TO N WILL RIDGE S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION UNTIL UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON WED. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PULL SE OF THE AREA BY THU.

[AnnularCane]

Could this little thing really upwell the waters? I'd think she was too weak to do so.

[wxman57]

Could this little thing really upwell the waters? I'd think she was too weak to do so.

No, upwelling will occur with strong wind blowing across large stretches of water. This weak swirl has very little wind around it.

[Blown Away]

Looks like that small burst of convection is getting sheared.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

So far it seems every system that gets into the mid latitudes is dealing w/ alot of shear. No favorable environment above 17N.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 070218
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LOW IS ALMOST STATIONARY AT THIS TIME...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Blown Away]

Sorry to beat the dead horse, but isn't just flat wrong for Accuweather to post maps using tropical storm and hurricane symbols when 99L has not even become a depression. No of us here would be confused but alot of people would be confused with there presentation. To discuss the potential is one thing, but to display maps showing a hurricane approaching the Carolina coast is wrong.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... traveler=0

[HURAKAN]

That's their style and they make money out of it. At the end, they only care about profits.