Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cpdaman]

* the moral of the story for me with this system is* ( when there is a low pressure in an unfavorable complex enviornment, don't buy the models timing on reduced shear or the intensity forecast at all)

[NCWeatherChic]

Sorry to beat the dead horse, but isn't just flat wrong for Accuweather to post maps using tropical storm and hurricane symbols when 99L has not even become a depression. No of us here would be confused but alot of people would be confused with there presentation. To discuss the potential is one thing, but to display maps showing a hurricane approaching the Carolina coast is wrong.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... traveler=0

I agree! Wonder if they do physic readings as well? Hey, maybe I can ask one of accuweather's mets what Saturday nights lottery numbers will be?????

[Blown Away]

* the moral of the story for me with this system is* ( when there is a low pressure in an unfavorable complex enviornment, don't buy the models timing on reduced shear or the intensity forecast at all)

Same thing happened to 98L. You can hear it in the NHC updates, they are not as aggressive w/ development as they were yesterday. For me I don't want to see a Carolina hurricane but it would be nice to see Accuweather just be absolutely dead wrong w/ 99L.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think we are a degree or two from moving out from the 40kt shear. If it slides W 1 degree that convection popping can take hold. It's been riding the edge of that that ULL. the ULL seems a bit slower to cut off and move SW that the earlier models runs yesterday. So the fork is still in the drawer since the LLC is still there and now popping convection albeit sheared like a spring lamb.

Guess the morning might bring out the fork or a nice helping of crow for somebody...

[fasterdisaster]

Come on Gabby just a little longer please you can do it (Don't become more than a Cat 1 though lol)

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

QuikSCAT still shows a closed circulation...this is not dead yet by any means!

[Javlin]

I think we are a degree or two from moving out from the 40kt shear. If it slides W 1 degree that convection popping can take hold. It's been riding the edge of that that ULL. the ULL seems a bit slower to cut off and move SW that the earlier models runs yesterday. So the fork is still in the drawer since the LLC is still there and now popping convection albeit sheared like a spring lamb.

Guess the morning might bring out the fork or a nice helping of crow for somebody...

and I just watched Lyons on TWC @9:50CDT say that to expect this thing to do something by Sunday along the OBX wether it be just a TS or more.Alot of people are seeing something that we can't myself included and he basically mentioned in 24hrs something should start to happen?and slow!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Some evidence to back up the stuff I said

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0 turn on the NHC -IR and the UL sat winds and you can see what I mean.

Also see the moisture getting into the lower levels, and the old frontal boundary (tail of the tadpole) is breaking up. lots more little cumulus clouds at the surface.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

Ain't much, kinda like watching paint dry on this one.

[Coredesat]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

QuikSCAT still shows a closed circulation...this is not dead yet by any means!

That run was from 12Z, it's about 16 hours old.

[Recurve]

Even if this evaporates and gets replaced by a flat expanse of high pressure from New York to Puerto Rico and from sea level to 200mb, I will keep watching that piece of ocean for a breath of convection. I will not look away. It's September; don't take your eyes off the Bermuda triangle, is what I say. Who's with me?

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

QuikSCAT still shows a closed circulation...this is not dead yet by any means!

That run was from 12Z, it's about 16 hours old.

It says it is from 0252Z Sept. 7 (10:52 pm EDT).

[cpdaman]

i'm with ya

if steve lyons says something should be around the outer banks by sunday (i.e t.storm or hurricane)

i am willng to belive this will develop, especially since if the high can kick it to the west abit it will take a deep breath of that shear free air

gabby is being such a tease

[BigA]

I still dont think this thing is done for...once the shear abates, it may get going...its been hanging on for so long.

[Epsilon_Fan]

This must be the largest thread regarding a low level swirl ever. I mean this thing has been nothing more than low pressure and we're approaching the post # for Felix!

[Bane]

it finally looks like the trough is pulling away.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-ir2.html

[gotoman38]

I think this qscat is just a few hours old

[gotoman38]

it finally looks like the trough is pulling away.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-ir2.html

Yeah... and in the floater... it's even more retracted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

[CrazyC83]

This must be the largest thread regarding a low level swirl ever. I mean this thing has been nothing more than low pressure and we're approaching the post # for Felix!

That is because Felix formed so fast and lasted for only a few days. This has been here for weeks. If we had the popularity of now back in 2005, Ophelia and Irene (the longest-lasting storms) would have more posts than some of the bigger ones in their discussion threads...

[fci]

This must be the largest thread regarding a low level swirl ever. I mean this thing has been nothing more than low pressure and we're approaching the post # for Felix!

Well a couple of days ago this appeared to be Hurricane threat for NC and the East Coast so the post count should be no surprise.

[fci]

This must be the largest thread regarding a low level swirl ever. I mean this thing has been nothing more than low pressure and we're approaching the post # for Felix!

That is because Felix formed so fast and lasted for only a few days. This has been here for weeks. If we had the popularity of now back in 2005, Ophelia and Irene (the longest-lasting storms) would have more posts than some of the bigger ones in their discussion threads...

Actually this thread is only 3 days old.
Started on Monday 9/3; not weeks ago.