Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[gotoman38]

Here's that qscat with yesterday's VDMs imposed

[baitism]

I think it is about to get its act together. I can pick out the circulation wrapping some clouds around it. I know its not much. But, its the first time I have seen it not getting immediately blown-off.

[kevin]

Wow what an incredible shoe-in. Why haven't the outer banks been evacuated?

[gotoman38]

I think it is about to get its act together. I can pick out the circulation wrapping some clouds around it. I know its not much. But, its the first time I have seen it not getting immediately blown-off.

I see it too - she's starting to gather the last part of the trough instead of being whipped by it - GO GIRL! (We need the rain!)

[srainhoutx]

I think it is about to get its act together. I can pick out the circulation wrapping some clouds around it. I know its not much. But, its the first time I have seen it not getting immediately blown-off.

Sure seems to be "getting that look" as evident via IR2 Loop..

Moisture trying to work in at mid/lower levels.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

[brunota2003]

I think it is about to get its act together. I can pick out the circulation wrapping some clouds around it. I know its not much. But, its the first time I have seen it not getting immediately blown-off.

I see it too - she's starting to gather the last part of the trough instead of being whipped by it - GO GIRL! (We need the rain!)

Ain't that the truth. We're *only* in a major drought...

[gotoman38]

I think it is about to get its act together. I can pick out the circulation wrapping some clouds around it. I know its not much. But, its the first time I have seen it not getting immediately blown-off.

I see it too - she's starting to gather the last part of the trough instead of being whipped by it - GO GIRL! (We need the rain!)

Ain't that the truth. We're *only* in a major drought...

Tell me about it - RDU had 0.91" of rain in Aug - 2nd driest ever - I don't think I had .2 here.

We could use a day of inches here. The SW mountains of NC are in "extreme drought" I think - this won't help them.

[Brent]

Wow what an incredible shoe-in. Why haven't the outer banks been evacuated?

Actually it's going to be a Cat 50 into New York City on 9/11!

[marcane_1973]

This must be the largest thread regarding a low level swirl ever. I mean this thing has been nothing more than low pressure and we're approaching the post # for Felix!

I hear ya!!! This is the most interesting feature right now (sad to say ) in the Atlantic besides the wave rolling off Africa and that system is not edged in stone either making it to TD status. The Atlantic is DEAD right now. Seems most of the action this year has been confined to the southern caribbean. I am starting to wonder if the U.S. is going to even have to deal with a marginal hurricane before this season is over with. I am sure that there are plenty of people on here that are happy that we are in a lull right now especially after the years of 2004 and 2005. I really would like to see 99L come back and at least be a decent TS and bring the carolinas some rain. We need it BIGTIME being down close to 20 inches in rainfall in alot of areas for the year. I decided now I will go ahead and give 99L a chance until Saturday. If this invest does not look much better than this by Saturday then stick a big fork in this one which I am sure most people have done so already. Unless the LLC is Rocky I say this invest is already down for the count.

[brunota2003]

Ain't that the truth. We're *only* in a major drought...

Tell me about it - RDU had 0.91" of rain in Aug - 2nd driest ever - I don't think I had .2 here.

We could use a day of inches here. The SW mountains of NC are in "extreme drought" I think - this won't help them.

Yeah, the very western portion of the state is under a D4 (highest drought level) with the rest of the state ranging from D2 to D3. I think there maybe a limited portion in the D1, but otherwise the drought is very bad.

Link: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?NC,SE

[lester]

As long as this system doesnt turn into a strong one i'm all for this one..we're 5 inches down for the yr in rainfall

[gotoman38]

Ain't that the truth. We're *only* in a major drought...

Tell me about it - RDU had 0.91" of rain in Aug - 2nd driest ever - I don't think I had .2 here.

We could use a day of inches here. The SW mountains of NC are in "extreme drought" I think - this won't help them.

Yeah, the very western portion of the state is under a D4 (highest drought level) with the rest of the state ranging from D2 to D3. I think there maybe a limited portion in the D1, but otherwise the drought is very bad.
(image)
Link: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?NC,SE

Indeed - same image I was looking at (although I did see another that had extreme NE NC near Va Beach at D0).

OTOH - I can see hope in this swirl of ours and think that some of these models might be correct in their forecast of a storm for us.

[brunota2003]

Interesting, 99% of the state is at least under some drought though. I would not mind seeing a weak storm, enough to bring us some decent rains and maybe a little wind so I can mess with my cameras some.

[gotoman38]

I think she's getting it together - no longer naked

[marcane_1973]

Interesting, 99% of the state is at least under some drought though. I would not mind seeing a weak storm, enough to bring us some decent rains and maybe a little wind so I can mess with my cameras some.

Yeah....Our local met was saying that N.C. is heading into one of the most historic droughts on record. We need a tropical system bad. I have lived in SC/NC for 26 years and usually when we have a serious lack of rainfall tropical storms or canes come through and usually help to get us back on track and closer to where we should be by the end of hurricane season. Nothing so far this season though. I sure hope it happens soon because the pattern we are in seems to not want to change and this is the only way we can get some relief being down in the amounts of rainfall most areas are in.

[hurricanetrack]

Hey- the GFDL ran again and it might help with some rain for ye!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[BUD]

Interesting, 99% of the state is at least under some drought though. I would not mind seeing a weak storm, enough to bring us some decent rains and maybe a little wind so I can mess with my cameras some.

Yeah....Our local met was saying that N.C. is heading into one of the most historic droughts on record. We need a tropical system bad. I have lived in SC/NC for 26 years and usually when we have a serious lack of rainfall tropical storms or canes come through and usually help to get us back on track and closer to where we should be by the end of hurricane season. Nothing so far this season though. I sure hope it happens soon because the pattern we are in seems to not want to change and this is the only way we can get some relief being down in the amounts of rainfall most areas are in.

We need rain very bad also in Horry county in SC.There are ponds behind my house that have very nice Bass,catfish ect and I NEVER seen these ponds this low.The sad part is the fish is going to die soon if we get no rain.

[Coredesat]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

QuikSCAT still shows a closed circulation...this is not dead yet by any means!

That run was from 12Z, it's about 16 hours old.

It says it is from 0252Z Sept. 7 (10:52 pm EDT).

That's the time it was posted on the site, the purple time near the bottom is the actual time of the pass. As for the IR2, the LLC looks less elongated, but convection is still being sheared away. The convection flares but quickly moves off to the NE and dissipates. Definitely still in a very unfavorable environment.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LOW IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AT THIS TIME...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.