Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[WmE]

Subtropical cyclones do not get Dvorak estimates. They get Herbert-Poteat numbers. As a subtropical system it looked better organized than as a fully tropical system.

[cheezyWXguy]

If you look at any vis loop out there, you can see that the convection is trying to wrap around the center..shear is really starting to let off.

I gotta go to school now, so when I come back, Ill probably see something close to a TD if this trend keeps up.

[vacanechaser]

000
WONT41 KNHC 071242
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB


Jesse V. Bass III
http://ww.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

WOW. I wasn't expecting that!!!

[serenityjp]

Are they including Florida now?

[Thunder44]

WOW. I wasn't expecting that!!!

I actually was expecting a STDS, because the 5:30am TWO played down development so much for today.

[storms in NC]

And how long did it take Felix to go from a TS to a cat 5? No this will not be a cat 5 but it can build up to a ca 1 I think with no trouble

[HURAKAN]

Are they including Florida now?

Don't think so. If the movement later on is northwestward, Florida shouldn't be included since the system is already at 29ºN.

[UpTheCreek]

Put the forks down........

[storms in NC]

to far north for Fla and it is moving W and NW.

[vacanechaser]

And how long did it take Felix to go from a TS to a cat 5? No this will not be a cat 5 but it can build up to a ca 1 I think with no trouble

very true.. the waters are plenty warm and the gulf stream near by as well... it is increasingly looking better... looks like we could see at least a strong tropical storm, maybe a cat 1 by sunday??



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[brunota2003]

This has about 48 hours (Sat Night/Sunday) to do its thing before possibly making landfall on NC. If that convection wraps fully, look out IMHO.

[dekeoy]

Put the forks down........

unless you're eating crow

[wxman57]

Subtropical cyclones do not get Dvorak estimates. They get Herbert-Poteat numbers. As a subtropical system it looked better organized than as a fully tropical system.

That would be Hebert-Poteat. I know Paul Hebert, not Herbert. He's Cajun, not British.

[jasons2k]

This system should be a lesson in two things:

1) patience
2) what a difference a dropoff in shear can make

The slightest change in environmental conditions, especially shear, can make the difference between sheared wave and developing cyclone or hurricane.

One other thing to keep in mind - it may seem like an eternity for this one to develop but I think that's mostly perception since the system has been stationary. We often track waves that have the same development cycle - even much slower - but it may not seem as long b/c they are being tracked across the Atlantic. Home brew can take the same amount of time to develop but it just seems longer b/c it may just sit there for a few days like this...

[fci]

Yummy, a HUGE plate of crow for me if this develops and a surgical removal of Derek's Dunce Cap he affixed yesterday!!

I hope that if it develops the winds are minimal and the rain plentiful for the deserts of North and South Carolina.

Good luck and I hope drought busting is on the menu this weekend for our friends in NC/SC.

[brunota2003]

Here is the 434 am AFD from MHX (Newport/Morehead City, NC)...I have a feeling the 4 pm one will be very interesting:

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE
SE AND HOW IT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL VERY DISORGANIZED AS SHEARING CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODELS STILL
OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BUT GENERALLY HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER AND WEAKER FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE NW BEGINNING TODAY BUT IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT IMPACT ON THE CWA UNTIL WE SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL TRACK CONTINUES TO RANGE FROM AROUND
MYRTLE BEACH TO CAPE HATTERAS TO REMAINING OFF THE COAST WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING
IS FOR TEMPS SAT TO CLOSELY MIRROR TODAY...HIGH AROUND 90 COASTAL
PLAIN TO MID 80S COAST...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW
PRES MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
BRING MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S SAT NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE
80S SUN. FOLLOWED HPC QPF WHICH BRINGS AROUND 1" OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE SUN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE SUN AS WELL BUT JUST HOW STRONG CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

Now off to school for me, be home around 630

[storms in NC]

This has about 48 hours (Sat Night/Sunday) to do its thing before possibly making landfall on NC. If that convection wraps fully, look out IMHO.

it will not be a cat 5 or 4 or 3 But it could be like the models were saying a few days ago a cat 2. The waters are very warm. By the time it gets to the gulf stream you will see it go up.

[carversteve]

This has about 48 hours (Sat Night/Sunday) to do its thing before possibly making landfall on NC. If that convection wraps fully, look out IMHO.

it will not be a cat 5 or 4 or 3 But it could be like the models were saying a few days ago a cat 2. The waters are very warm. By the time it gets to the gulf stream you will see it go up.

In your opinion.....why could this not blow up to say a cat 3 or 4?

[storms in NC]

Looks like Storm2K will be getting $25.00 from me too. But I give any ways