Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[vacanechaser]

:oops: Yummy, a HUGE plate of crow for me if this develops and a surgical removal of Derek's Dunce Cap he affixed yesterday!!

I hope that if it develops the winds are minimal and the rain plentiful for the deserts of North and South Carolina.

Good luck and I hope drought busting is on the menu this weekend for our friends in NC/SC.

at least you have the guts to admit it!!!! ... there are a few here i dont think would... lol... just kidding...

looks like it is continuing to improve...be interesting when recon gets out there to see what we have going on later today...


Jesse V. Bass III
http;//www.vastormphoto.com
Hurrciane Intercept Research Team

[carversteve]

Could this not if it moved slowly enough,blow up to somthing bigger?

[storms in NC]

This has about 48 hours (Sat Night/Sunday) to do its thing before possibly making landfall on NC. If that convection wraps fully, look out IMHO.

it will not be a cat 5 or 4 or 3 But it could be like the models were saying a few days ago a cat 2. The waters are very warm. By the time it gets to the gulf stream you will see it go up.

In your opinion.....why could this not blow up to say a cat 3 or 4?

Will for 1 it is not in the best condition as dean and felix and 2 the water are not as warm as they are down in the carb.

[KWT]

We best not go over the top with strength just yet but the waters would support a decent strength hurricane though the dry air and shear probably won't go completely away and that will likely prevent 99L from becoming a dangerous cat-3/4...but then again a cat-1 can still be dangerous, look at Gaston and Katrina's first landfall for example.

[vacanechaser]

Could this not if it moved slowly enough,blow up to somthing bigger?

its possible, but i doubt it at this point... if we see a huge improvement through the day today, its possible.. waters are very warm.. but it depends on how the upper conditions go and the forward speed... i could see a cat 2 maybe!!! MAYBE, but it would take a lot for that to happen and right now, i dont think that is possible.. but hey, i have been wrong many times before!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[marcane_1973]

000
WONT41 KNHC 071242
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB


Jesse V. Bass III
http://ww.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Game On baby!!!! I bet Mark is starting to get a little excited FINALLY. Even if it doesn't make landfall in N.C. he won't have to drive far to setup for a landfall in S.C. Looks like he could end up in the Georgetown/Myrtle Beach area if the GFDL pans out. Awww...I miss that wonderful beach traffic. I grew up in that area and lived there for 24 years. Don't get me wrong I love the beach but I sure did hate tourists and their driving. I am sure you guys know what I mean.

[dtrain44]

I wonder if we aren't a little bit too excited - it looks a lot better now than yesterday and still has a dmax ahead, but we all thought it was certain to develop on Wednesday and then buried it Thursday. Let's see what the recon says.

Impressive changes overnight, though, I must admit.

[vacanechaser]

000
WONT41 KNHC 071242
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB


Jesse V. Bass III
http://ww.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Game On baby!!!! I bet Mark is starting to get a little excited FINALLY. Even if it doesn't make landfall in N.C. he won't have to drive far to setup for a landfall in S.C. Looks like he could end up in the Georgetown/Myrtle Beach area if the GFDL pans out. Awww...I miss that wonderful beach traffic. I grew up in that area and lived there for 24 years. Don't get me wrong I love the beach but I sure did hate tourists and their driving. I am sure you guys know what I mean.

ohh yea...the traffic around there is horrible.... here in hampton roads too...

as far as track goes, will be interesting to see what the nhc says about a track... i think somewhere in nc.. where of course is the million $ question... of course where ever it is, we will be there and ready to go...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurrciane Intercept Research Team

[Stormcenter]

It's still struggling with shear.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

the shear vector appears to be changing direction and the UL is dropping SW now

[boca]

For once its not South Florida this time.No cone of death for us for 99L. I hope its just a rain maker and nothing else for you guys in coastal Carolina.

[Bane]

I wonder if we aren't a little bit too excited - it looks a lot better now than yesterday and still has a dmax ahead, but we all thought it was certain to develop on Wednesday and then buried it Thursday. Let's see what the recon says.

Impressive changes overnight, though, I must admit.

models never developed it until today. we'll see if they were right all along.

[KWT]

I wouldn't say its struggling anymore stormcenter, yesterday it was but todays its managing with the shear, though granted its still there it has eased off a little.

Derek, what you thinking about possible strength?

[storms in NC]

Going to wait here before we put things up aroud here. We live on a farm so not to much to do cause most of the things are under shelters. Just my back porch is a mess. need room to sit and watch and count how many trees fall. I have a big pot of boild peanut to enjoy the show with. The bird are singing away outside this morning.

[O Town]

Look at the shear tend. over the past 24 hours. Its has calmed down significantly after the trough passed, as expected. I think over the course of the day it will get the chance it needs to grow.


Current shear map.

[punkyg]

Hi guys so which one is 99L.

[Air Force Met]

:oops: Yummy, a HUGE plate of crow for me if this develops and a surgical removal of Derek's Dunce Cap he affixed yesterday!!

I hope that if it develops the winds are minimal and the rain plentiful for the deserts of North and South Carolina.

Good luck and I hope drought busting is on the menu this weekend for our friends in NC/SC.

Well...there IS a difference b/w nowcasting and FOREcasting.

[cycloneye]

The left one.

[Steve H.]

For the record, it is currently moving in a west-southwest direction. Don't let your guard down because it is one degree north of your latitude. I believe it will turn WNW then NW. But there will be some erratic motion. Remember, weak systems can move with the lower level flow until they stack up.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

For once its not South Florida this time.

Shhhh, you'll jinx it.