Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Recurve]

I have a question about steering for Cycloneye or Wxman or any other mets around:
The low level/shallow flow -- from looking at the layer mean analyses at CIMSS -- make it seem as if a developing storm would have to go S or SW at least at first. Where is the NW or W steering -- what charts or analyses should we be looking at to see the Carolina connection?

[chadtm80]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[chadtm80]

Recurve one of the "west" steering currents you ask for is the High I illustrated in the graphic above.. The high will help to push the system West and North West

[boca]

I also use this.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Air Force Met]

I have a question about steering for Cycloneye or Wxman or any other mets around:
The low level/shallow flow -- from looking at the layer mean analyses at CIMSS -- make it seem as if a developing storm would have to go S or SW at least at first. Where is the NW or W steering -- what charts or analyses should we be looking at to see the Carolina connection?

It actually won't move much until the high gets north of it...and as the high shifts to the east...that's where the NW movement comes in.

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 1200 32.90 -70.50 235 354 80 41.0 - - - - - 29.90 - 76.8

Interaction between the low and the high pressure continue to produce gale winds.

[HURAKAN]

Drigting = Drifting

[chadtm80]

Drigting = Drifting

I have no idea what your talking about

[Derek Ortt]

I could see this passing just east of the Carolinas

The strong high is starting to build in to the north; however, the trough over the Midwest is already moving east. An Emily 1993/Gustav 2002 track may be what happens

Of course, a Bertha/Floyd track is also very possible

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow..Really trying to get its footing this morning fast! Nice weekend for a Vac to OTBX...

[cycloneye]

In other words Derek,the timing will be very important in terms of how fast 99 moves vs the U.S mainland trough to see then if the Carolinas will get a direct hit or not.

[storms in NC]

With the rain on the east side I hope that it come in at SC-NC and go though up the middle of the state. But I know I am dreaming here.
Derek I think you maybe right. Even the NWC in Morehead have said as much. But just holding on to a little hope of rain.

[KWT]

The BAM's suggests a track like that Derek, they keep it just offshore though the outer banks probably would get close to the highest winds, esp if the system deos become strong enough to arrange an eyewall of sorts.

[Bane]

i think bams are relatively useless at mid latitudes, or that is what has been said iin the past.

[storms in NC]

NWC in Wilm

AS FOR THE OFFSHORE LOW...LATEST
GUIDANCE SLOWER TO MOVE AND DEVELOP LOW AND CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO
COME ASHORE SOMETIME SUNDAY ALONG THE NC OR SC COASTLINE. SAT PICS
FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED LOW LOOKING PRETTY RAGGEDY WITH A
COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP ON ITS EAST SIDE. HURRICANE CENTER NOTES
THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
THAT THIS COULD CHANGE AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NW. THIS ALL POINTS
TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT EVEN IF THE LOW SHOULD PICK UP TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. IF THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE...PROJECTED TRACK WILL
KEEP HEAVIEST RAINS CONFINED TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE KEPT
POPS MODEST...NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL
BE THE DROUGHT BREAKER THAT WE ARE HOPING FOR...NOT EVEN CLOSE.

Now from Raleigh

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PATCHY CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR AND AROUND THIS
LOW... HOWEVER THE OBSERVED UPPER SHEAR REMAINS TOO HIGH FOR ANY
NOTABLE STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE A
CLOSED CIRCULATION PUSHING WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY... HOWEVER THE LOW HAS BEEN
TRENDING WEAKER SINCE YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS... PARTICULARLY THE NAM
WHICH ALL BUT TOTALLY BOMBED IT OUT ON THURSDAY`S RUNS. COMPARED TO
THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY GFS TRACK... THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
PRETTY CLOSE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW... TAKING IT
ONSHORE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF WEAKENS THE LOW CONSIDERABLY AND SLOGS IT WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO MONDAY... WHEREAS THE NAM MORE FOLLOWS THE GFS
TRACK UP THROUGH EASTERN NC AS A WEAK BAGGY LOW. HAVE CHOSEN TO
FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH HERE BASED ON THE ECMWF
SUPPORT EARLY ON AND THE GFS`S RECENT MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF THE
TRACK. OVERALL THE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND THE ARRIVAL OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE NECESSITATES A SLOWING OF
THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES... SINCE THE WEDGE RIDGING OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN SITU DRY AIR WILL HOLD FIRM...
PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHERLY TO NNE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND AN
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP PULL EVEN MORE DRY AIR INTO
THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND DECREASED SKY
COVER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... AND REFINED POPS AND CLOUDS SUNDAY
TO SHOW A TIGHTER GRADIENT... PARTLY CLOUDY AND NO POPS IN THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR EAST. IN THE FACE OF WEAK STEERING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC... IT LOOKS MOST LIKELY THAT THE LOW
WILL DRIFT AROUND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST MONDAY... BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF EXACTLY WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GO BEYOND SUNDAY
NIGHT IS QUITE LOW WITH DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ITS MEANDERING
MOTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... SLIGHLY HIGHER EAST THAN WEST. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS OF 91-94. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 63 NORTHWEST TO 72 EAST WHERE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
INCREASING. HIGHS 91 WEST TO 85 EAST SUNDAY... THEN 89-92 MONDAY
WITH THICKNESSES REBOUNDING A BIT... STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

[Chacor]

Chad, you also spelled Keesler wrongly.

[wxman57]

SHIP S 1200 32.90 -70.50 235 354 80 41.0 - - - - - 29.90 - 76.8

Interaction between the low and the high pressure continue to produce gale winds.

I have the ship plotted. VERY suspect wind speed 200 nm NNW of the low. . Doesn't match surrounding reports and it's well northwest of any convection. Probably a bad report. Wind speed near the ship probably closer to 15-20 kts.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WHOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

Finally some action close to home...
but I hope it doesnt get stronger than cat 1.
It should give north carolina the rain it needs!!!
I hope the pressure gradient gives
me strong winds on the West Side
maybe kick up the surf on some part of tampa bay!!!!

yesterday the winds were NE at 21 mph gusts to 30
on this side of the bay....YEEEHHAWWWW!!!!!!!

Sorry people but Im just desperate for some good wind
along the waters even if the surf stinks!!!!!!!
Bring on that pressure gradient--YEA BABY!!!

Of course I hope and pray that this does not become
strong so that nobody gets hurt!!!


Sorry people I've gone insane after studying for an organic
chemistry test for 18 days straight!!!

[ncbird]

Guess its time to come out of casual Lurking mode and keep an eye on this one. I would be happy to see some very needed rain to the area, minus any strong winds or tornados of course.