Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Chacor]

OK, folks what you thinking this storm will be at landfall a cat 1 or a very strong TS opinion.............

It's still very far out to tell.

[tolakram]

While it is certainly better organized and probably a TD or maybe a weak TS, I think the overall strengthening of this system will be gradual. It still has a ways to go with consolidating around the center. There is still some shear over it as well, even though that is decreasing as the TUTT low retrogrades. The big key is how much separation occurs between the sfc low and the TUTT. If the distance remains close to what it is now, then at least some shear will continue to affect the system, greatly inhibiting the amount of intensification that can take place. On the other hand if the TUTT low retrogrades quicker or weakens, then a much more divergent pattern will continue to develop over the system and greater intensification would be possible.

I hope you're right but I tell ya, from an amateurs point of view, this thing looks like a storm waiting to happen. The way everything is already curving around the center, even from miles out, is stunning. I expect to learn a lot from this one.

[HURAKAN]

OK, folks what you thinking this storm will be at landfall a cat 1 or a very strong TS opinion.............

It's still very far out to tell.

PLEASE: Lets refrain ourselves from making hypothetical forecasts b/c we still don't have a named system and it's not the right thing to do. I think we have already learned that from this system. Lets just react to what happens and not get over ourselves. At the end being conservative is the best thing to do. Nonetheless, we're in September and anything is possible.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Epsilon_Fan]

The trough seems a good way off and the storm is heading west now. They are about equidistant from the coast. Is this any danger to my area of SC (Charleston)? I see the models all going to NC...

[windstorm99]

[Ed Mahmoud]

be interesting to see if JB's 970 mb landfall near Wilmington pans out.

[MWatkins]

That possibility (of a SC impact) is very real. Although the bulk of the model guidance suggests a turn to NC...the GFDL continues to advertise a SC landfall in about 60 hours (Monday morning/afternoon)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090717

Needless to say...anyone in SC should be watching this closely until it has moved to the north.

MW

[Brent]

That possibility (of a SC impact) is very real. Although the bulk of the model guidance suggests a turn to NC...the GFDL continues to advertise a SC landfall in about 60 hours (Monday morning/afternoon)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090717

Needless to say...anyone in SC should be watching this closely until it has moved to the north.

MW

Agreed, as long as it's moving west and not north SC needs to watch it.

The NHC's statement about the entire East Coast needing to monitor it was very good.

[JtSmarts]

Thanks for your insight Mike, even though I'm far inland I will be notifying friends and family on the coast about the potential for something to come their way.

[windstorm99]

Scary to see windshear decreasing like this....

11am map....

[caneman]

Mwatkins, I was thinking the same thing. Seems West of most models already. I think it will come darn close to Jax and Georgia and then impact SC

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[seahawkjd]

So Mwatkins, what are your thoughts on this system now as far as its current state and whats coming?

[storms in NC]

Look to where one of our TV News Mets have the low at. Very low to where it is really at.

http://www.wnct.com/midatlantic/nct/home.html

[wxman57]

That possibility (of a SC impact) is very real. Although the bulk of the model guidance suggests a turn to NC...the GFDL continues to advertise a SC landfall in about 60 hours (Monday morning/afternoon)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07090717

Needless to say...anyone in SC should be watching this closely until it has moved to the north.

MW

The GFDL has rarely been close to being right this year. I don't know what they did to it between seasons, but it's not a model I'd put much faith in. That's not to say SC is in the clear by any means, just beware the GFDL. Most likely, 99L will impact the coast of NC as a moderate to strong TS with strongest winds east of the center Sunday afternoon/evening. Can't rule out hurricane intensity in a few pockets east of the center. My forecast has it at 60-65 mph at landfall. Just waiting on confirmation by NHC of TD/TS status before I send it out.

[MGC]

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday, after the circulation became elongated, I too thought 99L was headed to the graveyard. Today it looks like 99L is on the verge of a TC. Currently 99L appears to be moving W but should turn NW ahead of a eastward moving trough currently approaching the Ohio Valley region. I think the trough will arive in time to keep 99L off shore and recurve before hitting land......MGC

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[windstorm99]