Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[xironman]

As for all the dry air, it would appear that that large mass of convection to the NW would seem to help the storm from pulling it into the center. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/wv-l.jpg

[caneman]

WXMAN57.

Remember this year too that systems have ended up left of model forecast so...... left in this case would be S.C.

[storms in NC]

Here is the track TV 12 has

http://www.wcti12.com//MediaStation.asp ... ropics.wmv

[caneman]

Here is the track TV 12 has

http://www.wcti12.com//MediaStation.asp ... ropics.wmv

FYI. Opneing these links is terribly slow. And I have fast service. Gives us the nuts and bolts of what they're saying.

[wxman57]

WXMAN57.

Remember this year too that systems have ended up left of model forecast so...... left in this case would be S.C.

Yeah, that's true, but the GFDL has been way too far right most of the time. I can definitely see the ridge north of 99L on WV imagery now. Convection appears to be aiming for the lower NC coast.

[MWatkins]

Satellite imagery suggests there is still a good amount of SW shear (15 to 20 knots) over the top. There are two blobs...one to the NE of the center and one further west. The one further west is less directly involved with the center of the system and as long as that is there...the center back to the east will be competing with it...suggesting that rapid intensification is not likely in the next 6-12 hours.

Latest imagery suggests a burst may be going up on the north side just to the west of the warming cloud tops from this mornings activity...and bands to the SW are getting more convectively active.

Moisture content within the envelope is getting better defined as well.

Looking at the 12Z GFDL it is hard to see what is accelerating the system to the west so quickly (in t+30 hours). Perhaps the GFDL is once again overdoing the ULL and it's impact on track...

The system has about 48 hours left over water...and during that time the upper environment could modify some and allow for intensification to a cat 1 hurricane...although right now my initial guess is a 65MPH tropical storm making landfall in central NC late Sunday night or early Monday morning...but both the intensity and track ideas could change once recon gets in there and gets a cetner fix and temp profile.


MW

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Stormcenter]

Moving quicker to the west and still being sheared.

[storms in NC]

From news 12 out to sea. 9 said it was coming in at wilm. They have no clue. Like us I guess.

But I have thought just like Derek come close to the coast and out to sea.

I would love to have it come in at SC-NC line and come on up to give rain from Wilm though up to Va. that would be so nice. Then all would have rain. But it it stays off shore NO rain.

[MWatkins]

One thing with the GFDL...it has had a bias of overdoing steering impacts from upper features this year. In Dean and Felix...the mid/upper features were to the north, causing the systems to swing too far north in the model.

In this case the upper trough will be south of 99L...and I do wonder whether the GFDL is pinwheeling the system around it too much (again, overdoing the upper feature)...

MW

[HURAKAN]

At least yesterday they had the decency to include "to-be"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks to me like it may have two different low level centers, a weaker one West of the main one.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

Looks to me like it may have two different low level centers, a weaker one West of the main one.

A binary system!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm sure that this has been said somewhere already but I feel that it is worth repeating. Everyone from North Florida up through the Carolina's needs to be closely monitoring this situation and not taking it lightly. I'm not trying to create a panic, just preparedness. Even if this comes ashore only as a strengthining TS or Cat 1 it could do some serious damage. Just ask some of the folks here in South Florida that were caught by suprise about how strong Katrina was when she made her first landfall here. I remember people driving home on I-95 during rush hour as Katrina was coming ashore in Ft. Lauderdale and there were many accidents on the highways. Alot of tree damage and some minor structural damage occurred also along with bridge beams from a bridge construction project falling down on SR 836 in Miami. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

SouthFLTropics

[storms in NC]

When they put out a forcast track and it will come to me then I will put up things but not before hand

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 29N70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N70W 25N74W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
340 NM SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT 560 NM EAST OF DAYTONA
BEACH FLORIDA. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW CENTER TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 30N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
TOP OF THE AREA OF THE LOW CENTER/TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 31N74W 28N74W 26N76W...REACHING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W...FROM 29N TO 31N
BETWEEN 69W AND 70W...AND FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE TROUGH GO FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR TROPICAL STORM MAY FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. RESIDENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

[cycloneye]

07/1745 UTC 29.6N 70.8W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean
07/1445 UTC 29.5N 69.6W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

If you look at the two dvorak positions,it is moving westward.

[storms in NC]

From all I have seen it is to go out to sea. Am I right? A few TV Mets said it would stay off shore. Some one going to bust?

I asked before what time would they put up watches and warnings.

[fig]

When they put out a forcast track and it will come to me then I will put up things but not before hand

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but having lived in Wilmington my entire life (all 20 years of it) and having seen storms like Fran, Bonnie, Floyd and the likes come straight for us when they were labeled as OBX storms, I'd say start to think about getting ready for this tonight or tomorrow. Nothing serious, just bring in anything loose and make sure you're prepared for a day or two of no power, because I have a bad feeling that this thing is going to come in between the NC/SC border and Jax (NC) with 80ish MPH winds. Remember Ophelia?

EDIT: As far as watches and warnings, if needed, look for a TS watch tomorrow late night from Charleston to OBX