Depression to form in GOM??

[Stormcenter]

Looks like something at about 25n 86w

Need waves!

Yep that is the area I would focuse on right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[mattpetre]

Looks like something at about 25n 86w

Need waves!

You a surfer Irak?

[ronjon]

GFS develops a weak area of low pressure over the south-central GOM and moves it almost due north to eastern La on Tuesday. This one defintely bears watching - this one may be a greater threat (in terms of intensity) than soon to be named Gabby. Complicating this forecast will be a cold front progged into the western gulf on Thursday next week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007090712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[mattpetre]

Looks like something at about 25n 86w

Need waves!

Yep that is the area I would focuse on right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

I'm thinking the LLC if one forms may be a bit north of there. The winds seem to shift the most right around 27.5N 87.5N from what little I can see of the lower cloud layer. At the least this area should be interesting to watch soon...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yesterday had some very windy weather along tampa bay in saint
pete...sustained 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph easily.

Many locations have winds gusting over 20 mph easily:
Official records:
***FROM YESTERDAY EVENING AND FROM TODAY***
Saint petersburg, fl:
06 22:53 E 21 10.00 Fair and Breezy CLR 83 72 30.07 1018.3
06 21:53 E 21 10.00 Fair and Breezy CLR 84 70 30.07 1018.2
06 20:53 E 20 10.00 Fair CLR 85 70 30.04 1017.1
06 19:53 E 20 10.00 Fair CLR 87 70 91 87 30.02 1016.5
06 18:53 E 15 10.00 Fair CLR 89 70 30.00 1015.7
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSPG.html

Marathon, FL:
07 13:53 E 10 10.00 Fair CLR 88 73 88 80 29.98 1015.0 0.02
07 12:53 E 12 G 21 10.00 Fair CLR 86 70 29.99 1015.6
07 11:53 E 10 9.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN095 BKN110 83 69 30.01 1016.3
07 10:53 E 14 G 22 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN090 82 72 30.02 1016.6 0.02 0.02
07 09:53 E 14 G 25 10.00 Overcast FEW024 SCT055 OVC085 83 72 30.01 1016.1
07 08:53 E 12 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN065 83 72 29.99 1015.5
07 07:53 NE 15 10.00 Overcast FEW030 BKN040 OVC090 81 73 84 81 29.98 1015.3


Homestead Air force base, fl:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KHST.html
Note that the winds pick up in bands:
07 13:58 NE 15 G 23 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW027 88 76 88 82 29.99 1015.5
07 12:58 Vrbl 5 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT037 84 75 30.02 1016.6
07 11:58 E 9 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT029 87 75 30.03 1017.1
07 10:58 E 15 10.00 Fair CLR 87 74 30.03 1016.9
07 09:58 E 14 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW033 86 73 30.02 1016.6
07 08:58 E 13 10.00 Fair CLR 84 72 30.00 1015.8
07 07:58 NE 13 10.00 Fair CLR 82 73 83 81 30.00 1015.9
07 06:58 NE 13 G 18 10.00 Fair CLR 82 73 29.98 1015.2
07 05:58 NE 13 10.00 Partly Cloudy FEW027 SCT070 81 74 29.97 1014.9
07 04:58 NE 9 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW060 82 71 29.97 1014.8
07 03:58 NE 8 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW027 82 75 29.97 1015.0
07 02:58 NE 14 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT050 82 74 29.99 1015.5
07 01:58 NE 12 10.00 Fair CLR 83 75 84 82 30.00 1016.0
07 00:58 NE 13 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN031 83 76 30.02 1016.6
06 23:58 NE 6 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW024 82 75 30.03 1017.0
06 22:58 NE 7 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW029 83 75 30.04 1017.2
06 21:58 NE 8 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW026 83 76 30.03 1016.9
06 20:58 NE 9 10.00 Fair CLR 83 76 30.02 1016.5
06 19:58 NE 10 10.00 Fair CLR 83 76 89 83 30.00 1015.9
06 18:58 NE 9 10.00 Fair CLR 84 75 30.00 1016.0
06 17:58 E 17 G 22 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW029 86 75 29.98 1015.4
06 16:58 NE 17 G 22 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW026 87 76 29.98 1015.3
06 15:58 NE 17 10.00 Fair CLR 88 75 30.00 1016.0
06 14:58 E 15 10.00 Fair CLR 88 76 30.01 1016.4
06 13:58 E 17 G 25 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW028 88 75 89 78 30.03 1016.8

[ronjon]

Sharp trough forecast by the Euro beginning on Wednesday next week. Watch out central or east gulf coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007090700!!/

[srainhoutx]

Snipet from HPC this afternoon. Change in previous model runs about strenght of "cold frontal passage" for Gulf Coast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

VALID 12Z MON SEP 10 2007 - 12Z FRI SEP 14 2007

ALL MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED NOAM FLOW PATTERN WITH STRONG ERN
PAC RIDGING AND A MEAN DOWNSTREAM TROF WITH SHORTWAVE ENeRGY
RUNNING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROF. TIMING DIFFERENCES OF AN
EARLY PERIOD SHORTWAVE AND LATER PERIOD POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROF ARE TODAYS DIFFICULTIES. SHORTWAVE TIMING IS NOT WELL
RESOLVED BY ENSEMBLES. A BETTER SOLUTION IS TELECONNECTIONS BASED
ON AN AGREED UPON AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE ERN PAC ALONG 140W.
TELECONNECTING ON THIS POSITIVE HT ANOMALY YIELDS A MEAN TROF AXIS
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO SRN CONUS AND KEEPS RIDGING ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. THE 06Z GFS FITS THIS BEST AND WAS USED AS A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION TO IRON OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES.

12Z GFS LOOKS REASONABLE THRU DAYS 3-5 BUT DOES NOT DROP SWD
ENOUGH ENERGY COMING AROUND A MID CANADIAN VORTEX UNTIL DAYS 6 AND
7 WHICH IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS. THIS
ELIMINATES THE WELL AGREED UPON LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE NATION DAYS 6 AND 7
ROSENSTEIN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg
Man somehing is bound to happen with all that convection in the GOM.

[mattpetre]

SRainHouTX,

I understand somewhat how this will effect the steering of any possible GOM system, but what would be the possible implications as far as intensity? I'm not sure if any, just curious your take.

[Brent]

This is just in from my local Birmingham met!

HUMBERTO? The Gulf of Mexico is unsettled, and very warm. The NAM develops a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (and the GFS to some degree), and if that is the case there is a reasonable chance it will be forced northward by the deepening upper trough over the U.S. next week. The GFS brings it up into the vicinity of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi at mid-week, with a rain event now showing up for all of Alabama on Wednesday. Like Gabrielle, I have concern that this might strengthen rapidly… there is a ton of latent heat energy available in the Gulf right now. Interests along the Gulf coast need to watch this closely; the best possible scenario for us is for the system to remain loosely organized, moving inland, and bringing some big time rain totals to the state at mid-week. But, systems rarely remain “loosely organized” this time of the year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is just in from my local Birmingham met!

HUMBERTO? The Gulf of Mexico is unsettled, and very warm. The NAM develops a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (and the GFS to some degree), and if that is the case there is a reasonable chance it will be forced northward by the deepening upper trough over the U.S. next week. The GFS brings it up into the vicinity of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi at mid-week, with a rain event now showing up for all of Alabama on Wednesday. Like Gabrielle, I have concern that this might strengthen rapidly… there is a ton of latent heat energy available in the Gulf right now. Interests along the Gulf coast need to watch this closely; the best possible scenario for us is for the system to remain loosely organized, moving inland, and bringing some big time rain totals to the state at mid-week. But, systems rarely remain “loosely organized” this time of the year.

Heat Content is explosive over the gulf of mexico.

[srainhoutx]

I think the question is "if" anything other than a wave forms from this convection. Still a bit of shear and nothing at the surface as of this time in my humble opinion.

[Steve]

>>okay this area has officially peaked my interests.

You Floridians need to stick with Spanish and let us in Louisiana handle the French.

And yeah, that would be piqued.

Steve

[green eyed girl]

I think the question is "if" anything other than a wave forms from this convection. Still a bit of shear and nothing at the surface as of this time in my humble opinion.

Just a heavy rain event and nothing more would be okay with me!

[lrak]

Looks like something at about 25n 86w

Need waves!

You a surfer Irak?

Yes, for about 25 years now

Love the ocean, but hate the Hurricanes, I would love to see a small TS hit just above Corpus, give us offshore winds with 5 feet faces. Whoot! Oh and we have a new channel called Packery and it holds a swell perfectly.

Karl, AKA lrak

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A greater concern for the Gulf of Mexico
might be the area of convection currently off florida's west
coast and in the eastern gulf of mexico. This area is associated
with a vigorous tropical wave that is migrating across
the gulf. I am not familiar with the current shear profiles
over the southern gulf, but I would expect perhaps
a niche to form between a sheared trough to the north and
shear to the west. Now if shear does lessen, I would expect
the potential for rapid development and intensification.
Convection is already concentrated and the system
looks fairly organized. Though a tropical wave, it bears
very close watching by all interests along the
Gulf Coast. If shear lessens a tropical storm is possible.

[canetracker]

This is just in from my local Birmingham met!

HUMBERTO? The Gulf of Mexico is unsettled, and very warm. The NAM develops a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (and the GFS to some degree), and if that is the case there is a reasonable chance it will be forced northward by the deepening upper trough over the U.S. next week. The GFS brings it up into the vicinity of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi at mid-week, with a rain event now showing up for all of Alabama on Wednesday. Like Gabrielle, I have concern that this might strengthen rapidly… there is a ton of latent heat energy available in the Gulf right now. Interests along the Gulf coast need to watch this closely; the best possible scenario for us is for the system to remain loosely organized, moving inland, and bringing some big time rain totals to the state at mid-week. But, systems rarely remain “loosely organized” this time of the year.

Humberto???!!!! I can't believe they mentioned that name! I know it is not Humberto or may never even be a TD, but Humberto is the name I picked way back at the beginning of year that scared me the most. For now, I think it will be just a rain maker, but will watch it for signs of development.

[Stormcenter]

A greater concern for the Gulf of Mexico
might be the area of convection currently off florida's west
coast and in the eastern gulf of mexico. This area is associated
with a vigorous tropical wave that is migrating across
the gulf. I am not familiar with the current shear profiles
over the southern gulf, but I would expect perhaps
a niche to form between a sheared trough to the north and
shear to the west. Now if shear does lessen, I would expect
the potential for rapid development and intensification.
Convection is already concentrated and the system
looks fairly organized. Though a tropical wave, it bears
very close watching by all interests along the
Gulf Coast. If shear lessens a tropical storm is possible.

Is this your post or from a NWC discussion?
Anyway it continues to look interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[green eyed girl]

Humberto???!!!! I can't believe they mentioned that name! I know it is not Humberto or may never even be a TD, but Humberto is the name I picked way back at the beginning of year that scared me the most. For now, I think it will be just a rain maker, but will watch it for signs of development.[/quote]

You know, as silly as it sounds, some storms just sound like they are headed your way. I remember feeling that way about Isidore's name. Sure enough, it came to us!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A greater concern for the Gulf of Mexico
might be the area of convection currently off florida's west
coast and in the eastern gulf of mexico. This area is associated
with a vigorous tropical wave that is migrating across
the gulf. I am not familiar with the current shear profiles
over the southern gulf, but I would expect perhaps
a niche to form between a sheared trough to the north and
shear to the west. Now if shear does lessen, I would expect
the potential for rapid development and intensification.
Convection is already concentrated and the system
looks fairly organized. Though a tropical wave, it bears
very close watching by all interests along the
Gulf Coast. If shear lessens a tropical storm is possible.

Is this your post or from a NWC discussion?
Anyway it continues to look interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

This is my post...the word "interests along the gulf of mexico" sounds
like how NHC would write something, but I use Interests so the
phrase sounds very similar.

I also posted the same thing on other weather messageboards that
I am a part of.