La Nina strengthens forecast for busy hurricane season

[gatorcane]

It's quiet now as we approach the peak of the season but not so fast. Experts say that the season could pick up.

I wouldn't be surprised if October is a very busy month. Here in South Florida they are on it:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 9023.story

[windstorm99]

Yea gator as we get into october things for south florida could get very interesting with all that warm water to our south.If the set up is right we could see some activity in the coming weeks.The season is not over by a long shot.Adrian

[hial2]

The experts are hanging tough at the La Nina= more canes theory...if it doesn't happen,back to square one or will they blame other factors??

Stay tuned

[Ptarmigan]

La Nina on average means more hurricanes form, but not always. 1970 was a La Nina year and it ended up being little less active in which 10 storms formed and 2 became major hurricanes, which more of a typical season. In terms of ACE it was rather low, 34. However in the top 10 most active season, it was a Neutral year, no La Nina and El Nino.

[windstorm99]

September 6, 2007 — Scientists with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in today’s release of its monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, say that La Niña is on its way. (Click NOAA image for larger view of observed sea surface temperatures on August 29, 2007. Please credit “NOAA.”)

“While we can’t officially call it a La Niña yet, we expect that this pattern will continue to develop during the next three months, meeting the NOAA definition for a La Niña event later this year,” said Mike Halpert, acting deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.

La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific that occur every three to five years. NOAA declares the onset of a La Niña event when the three-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds -0.5 degrees Celsius (-0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5 degrees North and 5 degrees South and 170 degrees West - 120 degrees West].

The development of La Niña conditions is supported by increasing below-normal-sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and stronger-than-average easterly winds across the west-central equatorial Pacific. “Nearly all operational dynamical models, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System and many of the statistical models also favor a La Niña event,” said Halpert.

Complete NOAA article here.

[Stormcenter]

Isn't it kind of late now?

[gatorcane]

no not at all. Florida's risks go up because of La Nina as Florida can get hit even into November....

[Brent]

Isn't it kind of late now?

Most of South Florida's hits actually come in October from Wilma-like systems. Miami's greatest threat is NOT from an Andrew or Katrina track.

[windstorm99]

Yep this october could shape up to be a busy month.

[Frank2]

“While we can’t officially call it a La Niña yet, we expect that this pattern will continue to develop during the next three months, meeting the NOAA definition for a La Niña event later this year,”

With all due respect to my former employer, I'll play Wally and say, "That sounds goofy!" - they are stating that a La Nina will increase over the next 3 months - but, so will Fall and Winter...

I don't know - doesn't this take into account that the westerlies are already beginning to make their soundward migration?

The westerlies are often what puts the lid on the season - no matter how favorable other conditions may be...

Frank

[weatherwindow]

as several have alluded to, roughly 60% of all storms landfalling fla originate in, or transit, the caribbean...with the bulk of those forming after mid sept thru late october. the simplest explanation for this is the tendency of UL high pressure to persist over the sw/w carib basin during this period...which in turn reduces shear over any potential disturbance. the impact of our incipient nina event will be to further reduce basin shear(and anomalous subsidence) which may pump up late season development....which, as noted above, is a disproportionate threat to fla/cuba/eastern gulf....rich

[Frank2]

Yes, that makes sense, but, 3 months from now is almost mid-December, so, that'd be one late hurricane season...

I don't know - their statement still doesn't sit right with me...

Per today's subtropical system, the strong westerlies are already beginning to encroach on the latitudes north of 30, so, it probably won't be too much longer...

[gatorcane]

Frank check out what is brewing just ENE of the Leewards and is moving WNW into the Herbert box....

Yep could this be the start of the active season experts are still insisting on. We will need to watch this area here in South Florida...

Easterly breezes have been picking up lately. Finally it looks alot like the deep summer regime is here....

[Frank2]

Yes, but...

Folks here are going to run me out of town on a rail, for downplaying everything that's out there - LOL, but, that area east of the Leewards seems to be more due to a surge in the easterlies, more than anything...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Frank

[gatorcane]

It is possible, and I surely hope so. We'll see if the convection lasts through the day and the night....

[ConvergenceZone]

This should be a player, going through a down cycle as far as convection is concerned, but I'm sure we'll see many of these cycles over the next day or so...Once convection refires, it should get mentioned in the next TWO, but we need a bit more convection than what we had earlier for them to even consider it....It's a player though, that's for sure.

Edit:
***oops wrong thread sorry...

[weatherwindow]

just my humble opinion...based on the truncated state of the atlantic ridge and the repeated intrusions of westerly trofiness...i believe that nothing approaching or moving thru the latitude of greater antilles has a chance of avoiding recurvature between 50-70deg west....few, if any, of the global models are rebuilding a semi-contiguous ridge across the atlantic basin...which could allow for a repetition of the earlier long trackers. that said, this does not preclude the early development of a few emerging waves but tends to limit their western progress prior to recurvature....rich....just a note to frank, IMO, the nina impact will be a gradually building one...with a strengthing hadley cell circulation in a more westerly position which will gradually mitigate shear west of 70deg west.....thus its impact may not require the wait for a fully NOAA qualified nina event to feel its effects......rich