Depression to form in GOM??

[windstorm99]

[windstorm99]

If this were to go ahead and develope i would like a promet to chip in on what areas would at risk...Florida,gulf coast etc.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WOW. That looks very intense.
Some very intense convection flaring up over the area.
I think we will have an invest from this very shortly.
So that's why it has been so windy today, LOL.
Also the convection is fairly concentrated, meaning that
this system is trying to organize quickly.

A cold front is expected to dig down
over this area, a strong trough
might lift this area northward in the
middle of next week possibly towards
Mississippi.

[canetracker]

You know, as silly as it sounds, some storms just sound like they are headed your way. I remember feeling that way about Isidore's name. Sure enough, it came to us!

Well I hope my gut was wrong. Hopefully this won't even develop and my Humberto will be another wave that is a fishy out to sea. That is strange about your feeling with Isadore. Guess it is our women's intuition.

[mattpetre]

If this were to go ahead and develope i would like a promet to chip in on what areas would at risk...Florida,gulf coast etc.

Seems to me that the pros may not be buying into any significant development of thes complex of storms at this point. I'm kind of like you in that sense... started this thread because I believed there was decent chance of development, but also started it in hopes that the pros would give more opinions as to why this may or may not become anything...

After today though, my feeling is that this has about a 50/50 chance of becoming at least a storm. And I think the general track could be anywhere from Houston to Pensacola... just my two cents.

[Nimbus]

I have been waiting for surface pressures to drop before jumping on JBs' bandwagon. Interesting buoy observation at 42001, down .10 over the last few hours. Very high pressure over the gulf so we should be able to spot any areas of development that reach the surface.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42001

[Buck]

Definitely looks much better than it did yesterday and this morning.

[canetracker]

This is the current steering levels:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time
Notice that deepening trough.

[x-y-no]

I see no sign of a surface low.

Lots of divergence-driven convection, that's all.

[windstorm99]

This is the current steering levels:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time
Notice that deepening trough.

Looking at that it does not appear to be a florida problem....

[gatorcane]

remember persistence. If we wake up tomorrow AM and it is still there and looking good then I think you will see the pros jump on it more...

definitely something to watch though and hope doesn't get going in the GOM.

[gatorcane]

This is the current steering levels:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time
Notice that deepening trough.

Looking at that it does not appear to be a florida problem....

remember that is a snapshot of the current mid-level flow. It will change over the next couple of days. That High over the EC of the US is expected to slide eastward as a short wave moves in from the west. That should cause this thing to move toward the Northern GOM somewhere.

[frederic79]

For what it's worth, Dean and Felix rapidly strengthened in areas with slightly lower SST's than the GOM during their trek across the southern Atlantic and Carribean. Granted, they had lots of room to work with but did so moving at a relatively swift foward speed. I have to wonder if the fact both became Cat. 5 storms is indicative of an environment, in general, that supports rapid intensification, i.e. low shear, strengthening La Nina. Obviously you have to have an LLC to begin with, but if you take that low and develop it for 24 hours to moderate TS strength, then move it more slowly across an extremely warm body of water in a moist environment, it wouldn't take much real estate to become a big problem. I'm not saying this will happen, but whoda thunk the seasons first and only two hurricanes so far this year would become Cat. 5's? Just food for thought.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, th first cold front of Autumn, due here in Houston about Tuesday per local forecasts, should keep us safe here in Texas.

Be interesting to watch.

[canetracker]

This is the current steering levels:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time
Notice that deepening trough.

Looking at that it does not appear to be a florida problem....

remember that is a snapshot of the current mid-level flow. It will change over the next couple of days. That High over the EC of the US is expected to slide eastward as a short wave moves in from the west. That should cause this thing to move toward the Northern GOM somewhere.

I agree. The steering levels update every 3 hours and will be watching them. Don't see a sign of an LLC, but this is the GOM and anything could happen.

[Extremeweatherguy]

According to the NWS discussions and forecasts I have been reading, it looks like this messy weather (associated with an inverted trough/tropical wave/weakness) will head generally westward toward Texas over the weekend. Because of this, our rain chances in Houston have been upped to 50% for tomorrow and Sunday. The main "center" of this blob though...which may try to develop given enough time...is a little more uncertain. It will all depend on how fast it can develop (IF it even does) and what speed it will travel. We will also have to see how far south that front actually gets next week in Texas. According to the latest Houston NWS AFD, there is still a lot of uncertainty:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BIT OF A COMPLICATED FORECAST. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO SHIFT TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT
AROUND TUESDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPED POPS A BIT SATURDAY. THE UPPER WEAKNESS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RADAR WAS ALREADY
PICKING UP ON THE STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. MODEL PW/S OF UP TO 2.4 INCHES ARE FORECAST INTO
AN AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. FOR
NOW THINK THAT THE COVERAGE COULD GET WIDESPREAD OVER THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT THIS AREA MAY WIDEN A
BIT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE WEAKNESS MOVES. MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AND MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE 60 PERCENT AREAS. ALSO UPPED POPS A BIT SUNDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT DIFFER IN HOW FAR SOUTHEAST TO BRING IT. THEY
ARE ALSO DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE GULF WEATHER NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY.

[LaBreeze]

I don't know about all this possible development, but I can tell you that we are catching a whole lot of severe lightning, thunder, and heavy rainfall at the moment. The thunder is relentless and strong.

[Stormcenter]

I don't know about all this possible development, but I can tell you that we are catching a whole lot of severe lightning, thunder, and heavy rainfall at the moment. The thunder is relentless and strong.

These does seem to be some twisting motion developing in the convection SSE of Mobile Bay.

Maybe I'm just seeing things.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[jasons2k]

Chances in the GOM look better next week after the front drops down and stalls.

[Stormcenter]

Chances in the GOM look better next week after the front drops down and stalls.

If that is the case then I look for more a Florida panahandle event. IMO