Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm seeing multiple centers, once with each of the cloud clusters

Yeah, I see what you mean. Convection associated with the eastern cluster (and the initial LLC) appears to be diminishing and re-firing farther west, though I don't see an LLC there. It's just a big disorganized mess right now. Going to take quite a while to consolidate but I thin it will eventually become Gabrielle. The slow organization decreases the hurricane risk, at least.

Glad someone agrees...

[KWT]

From the 1km loops I'm using I can see one LLC inbetween the two convective complexes which is fairly exposed with the convectin all rotating around it (looks slightly odd i have to say!) There does seem to be some other turning inside the western complex of convection which seems too far west to be totally based from the central LLC and its not closed off thats for sure!

[Derek Ortt]

I think a new one is forming south of the western cluster (still implies some shear)

could be mid level though. But regardless, it shows that this remains broad and quite disorganized

[tallbunch]

As a resident of NE SC....I can tell you that the forecast track always brings the storm to the NC/SC border and at the last minute it makes that northward turn up into NC. I think there's a magnet that pulls it that way. If someone has some old storm plots of past NC/SC storms, I would love for you to post them.

totally agree. Storms always go north from here! We never get anything good. Damn inlet.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[BensonTCwatcher]

Uhhh I see an organizing mess. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html There is even outflow to the west on western convection. The shear is dropping off pretty quickly and convection is poping on the S side now. Recon will be interesting....

[KWT]

If it does reform then clearly its also gonig to move the landfall threat that little bit further south ,not talking about massivly south but maybe makes a SC more possible, even though I'd favor S.NC if it does reform.

I think it'd be quite logical it would try and re-form further west given the LLC became exposed a few hours ago.

[OuterBanker]

I see one center only at around 30.3 71.3 (ir easier to see).

[wxman57]

I think a new one is forming south of the western cluster (still implies some shear)

could be mid level though. But regardless, it shows that this remains broad and quite disorganized

Yeah, that's what I was thinking may be happening. The ridge is building in pretty strong to the north of 99L and forcing the moisture to the west very quickly. Could be moving inland ahead of the model projections if this keeps up (and weaker). I don't know that the recon plane will be able to close off a center. At least not a well-defined one.

[MWatkins]

My guess is there are a couple of low centers rotating around a broader (and perhaps elongated) low centered where KWT mentions above...with the one to the east being better defined (for now).

At last check recon is still about 20 mins away...

MW

[wxman57]

If it does reform then clearly its also gonig to move the landfall threat that little bit further south ,not talking about massivly south but maybe makes a SC more possible, even though I'd favor S.NC if it does reform.

I think it'd be quite logical it would try and re-form further west given the LLC became exposed a few hours ago.

You would be correct. Farther south and weaker (less time to organize).

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak:

07/1745 UTC 29.6N 70.8W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Cyclone1]

2.0. That's usually the golden number the NHC looks for to upgrade.

[wxman57]

2.0. That's usually the golden number the NHC looks for to upgrade.

Needs a well-defined center first.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[storms in NC]

2.0. That's usually the golden number the NHC looks for to upgrade.

Needs a well-defined center first.

I am sorry I thought that there has been all week. just bare.

[Derek Ortt]

this kind of reminds me of Hermine 1998 the day prior to it being classified as a TD

[Thunder44]

I see one center only at around 30.3 71.3 (ir easier to see).

Yep, I agree. And that what the plane reports so far seems to be indicating any center will be too.

[LarryWx]

If it does reform then clearly its also gonig to move the landfall threat that little bit further south ,not talking about massivly south but maybe makes a SC more possible, even though I'd favor S.NC if it does reform.

I think it'd be quite logical it would try and re-form further west given the LLC became exposed a few hours ago.

You would be correct. Farther south and weaker (less time to organize).

If the main LLC ends up reforming there, then my forecast of no direct hit south of NC would likely bust bigtime imho. However, I don't have a clue whether this is even occurring regardless.