Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[BigA]

I've been looking at the visible repeatedly, and I can honestly not see a second center to the west. This may be bias on my part, or inexperience, so take what I say with healthy skepticism.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[fasterdisaster]

I really hope this can become a TD and TS(not a big hurricane capable of death though!)

[ConvergenceZone]

thanx for the input WXMAN, you are right, looks like we might just be looking at a tropical storm at landfall then as opposed to a hurricane, great news! still some rain though....I think a minimal tropical storm though by early tomorrow.

[LarryWx]

I've been looking at the visible repeatedly, and I can honestly not see a second center to the west. This may be bias on my part, or inexperience, so take what I say with healthy skepticism.

I don't see it myself as of this time.

[KWT]

Its not a center but there is some weak rotation seemingly going on in the western convective complex, maybe at mid-level like Derek said. For now the dominant circulation is the central one.

[storms in NC]

From NWC out of Wilm

They don't have it DEVELOPING

AS FOR THE OFFSHORE LOW...LATEST
GUIDANCE SLOWER TO MOVE AND DEVELOP LOW AND CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO
COME ASHORE SOMETIME SUNDAY ALONG THE NC OR SC COASTLINE. SAT PICS
FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED LOW LOOKING PRETTY RAGGEDY WITH A
COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
IS FLARING UP ON ITS EAST SIDE. HURRICANE CENTER NOTES THAT UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THAT THIS COULD
CHANGE AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NW. THIS ALL POINTS TO SLOW
DEVELOPMENT EVEN IF THE LOW SHOULD PICK UP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IF THIS
CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE...PROJECTED TRACK WILL KEEP HEAVIEST RAINS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE KEPT POPS MODEST...NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE THE DROUGHT
BREAKER THAT WE ARE HOPING FOR...NOT EVEN CLOSE.

&&

[KWT]

that forecast is at least 9hrs old Storms in NC, I remember seeing it from earlier today where it did look a little ragged, infact that may well be from the early morning forecast.

[seahawkjd]

When was that from? Just looking at most of the convection is not confined to the east but it was this morning.

[storms in NC]

that forecast is at least 9hrs old Storms in NC, I remember seeing it from earlier today where it did look a little ragged, infact that may well be from the early morning forecast.

[top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 071822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

[DESTRUCTION5]

99 reminds me of Ernesto...when it comes to not being able to get its act together..Was supposed to come in as a Cat 1 and came thru as a showery cloud complex..Never found a consilidated center prior to landfall in FL..

[KWT]

Well they've not changed the morning forecast if thats the case...your own post, towards the bottom of the page the exact same forecast from 8hrs ago:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97685&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1480

[Brent]

that forecast is at least 9hrs old Storms in NC, I remember seeing it from earlier today where it did look a little ragged, infact that may well be from the early morning forecast.

[top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 071822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

That sounds like old info... too much downplaying IMO. NHC said conditions are unfavorable? No they didn't, at 11:30 they said "increasingly favorable".

[dtrain44]

There may be a snafu at NWS Wilmington - but Storms in NC is right: the 221 EDT discussion says what he says it does....

[storms in NC]

Well they've not changed the morning forecast if thats the case...your own post, towards the bottom of the page the exact same forecast from 8hrs ago:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97685&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1480

To lazy to write a new one I guess.

[dtrain44]

Charleston and Newport are also very bearish on the system: pretty strange that the NHC should be significantly more concerned than the local NWS offices. Their analysis may be based on old information, but I think the Carolinas should at least see some rainfall if the system makes landfall.

[ConvergenceZone]

even if it just comes across as a weak tropical storm, it will still bring good rain, nobody expecting this to be a hurricane that I"m aware of, although a weak cat 1 isn't out of the possibility I guess.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the recon, I would not upgrade

pressure much higher than it was 2 days ago (not sure how the 1006mb was derived... recon seems to have apssed through the center and found 1010mb)

Unless I see better organization, IMO, advisories should not be initiated

[storms in NC]

Charleston and Newport are also very bearish on the system: pretty strange that the NHC should be significantly more concerned than the local NWS offices. Their analysis may be based on old information, but I think the Carolinas should at least see some rainfall if the system makes landfall.

If it makes land fall. they talling this morning about coming up to the coast then out to sea. But I want to wait for recon report and go from there.

[RL3AO]

based upon the recon, I would not upgrade

pressure much higher than it was 2 days ago (not sure how the 1006mb was derived... recon seems to have apssed through the center and found 1010mb)

Unless I see better organization, IMO, advisories should not be initiated

Your that confident after one pass though the center?