JB morning update...still cat 2/3 in NC

[Derek Ortt]

JB does NOT verify his forecasts

His forecasts are QUALITATIVE, not QUANTATIVE

Please explain how one can objectively verify a QUALITATIVE forecast? Not exactly possible

When he starts producing QUANTATIVE forecasts, like those I and many ohers release, then we can revisit this discussion

[jasons2k]

Anyone think Rush Limbaugh is a journalist? He berates people daily with a lot more credentials in that department that he will ever have simply because he doesn't like their point of view. I'm not defending JB or Rush here. The difference between the two is one is supposed to be a professional meteorologist and act like it but he learned that doesn't increase audience share. He refuses to verify his forecasts and like his company will never admit mistakes. Since he loves the cameras he'd make a perfect replacement for Proenza to direct his loyal senior forecast team. The media would love him!

FWIW Rush often states "I'm not a journalist, I'm a radio host. I'm not unbiased because I don't have to be." Like him or not, at least you know where he stands.

As for JB, Derek is right. The only quantitative analysis of his forecasts I have seen was done by Mike Watkins a couple of years ago, and the numbers were not nearly as good as the NHC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I do not agree. As an example, let's take a look at his prediction for last Winter. In November 2006 he put out the following (very straightforward) forecast:

JB FORECAST/DEC/JAN/FEB/WINTER/PRECIP
BOSTON .5 -1.5 -1 -.67 110%
NEW YORK N -1.5 -1 -.83 110%
WASHINGTON N -2 -1.5 -1.17 110%
COLUMBIA SC -.5 -2 -1.5 -1.33 125%
ORLANDO N -1 -2 -1 140%
BUFFALO .5 -1.5 N -.33 N
CINCINNATI N -1.5 N -.5 80%
JACKSON MS N -2 -1 -1 N
DETROIT .5 N N .17 80%
MINNEAPOLIS 1 3 2 2 75%
KANSAS CITY 1 2 1 1.33 90%
DALLAS N N N N N
SALT LAKE .5 .5 2 1 N
PHOENIX 1 N 1 .67 110%
LOS ANGELES N N N N 125%
SEATTLE 1 1.5 2 1.5 75%

Then, in April he went back and graded his forecast:

WINTER TEMPERATURE GRADES:

SITE/FORECAST/ACTUAL/ERROR/GRADE

BOSTON -.67 1.7 2.37 C
NYC -.83 2.1 2.93 C
DCA -1.1 1.4 .2.57 C.
COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA -1.33 1.6 2.93 C
ORLANDO -1 2 3 C
BUFFALO -.33 1.8 2.13 C
CINCINNATI -.5 .3 .8 A
JACKSON MISS -1 1.4 2.4 C
DETROIT .17 2 1.83 B
MINNEAPOLIS 2 3.8 1.8 B
KANSAS CITY 1.33 1.5 .17 A
DALLAS N .5 .5 A
SALT LAKE CITY 1 -1.9 2.9 C
PHOENIX .57 -1.6 2.27 C
LOS ANGELES N -1.2 1.2 B
SEATTLE 1.5 -1.0 2.5 C

Grades A:3 B:3 C:10. Grade Point: 2.55. Average Error: 1.9

As you can see, he very clearly shows where he was right and wrong and he has made a great effort to verify his initial thoughts.

[jasons2k]

EWG, you are right on this example. He has been issuing seasonal numbers for cities in the last few years (I have not been a subscriber since 2004 or 2005).

I know at one time he was issuing forecast points for Tropical Cyclones and those are the numbers Mike verified. I don't know if he is still doing that, but most of it is discussion-only and conjecture. In fairness to JB he has often stated the purpose of his column is to be in fact, just that - a discussion not a forecast.

AccuWx itself is a different story.