Depression to form in GOM??

[mattpetre]

I don't know about all this possible development, but I can tell you that we are catching a whole lot of severe lightning, thunder, and heavy rainfall at the moment. The thunder is relentless and strong.

These does seem to be some twisting motion developing in the convection SSE of Mobile Bay.

Maybe I'm just seeing things.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Maybe one day we'll have something like the Quikscat with updates every 15 minutes... or better yet realtime satellite and quikscat. I just can't stand having to wait hours for the next pass to find out if anythings beginning to turn. Wish the Pros would chime in on any thoughts about this convection though...

[windstorm99]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN.THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

[Extremeweatherguy]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN.THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

They are not talking about the system in the GOM. According to the coordinates they provided, the low they are talking about is northeast of the bahamas: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&q=28. ... a=N&tab=wl

[green eyed girl]

I'm sure our pros will be chiming in soon. If it still looks good tomorrow we may get some more input. With the various opinions I have read so far, I am very interested in what the pros have to say

[lrak]

I'm sure our pros will be chiming in soon. If it still looks good tomorrow we may get some more input. With the various opinions I have read so far, I am very interested in what the pros have to say

late night for me, can't wait until tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

I'm sure our pros will be chiming in soon. If it still looks good tomorrow we may get some more input. With the various opinions I have read so far, I am very interested in what the pros have to say

I think most of the ProMets are locked on to 99L right now.

[KWT]

Lots of convection present it seems at the moment and while its being sheare d alittle its not exactly stopping constant convective development. However this one shows no sign o Vis.imagery of rotation right now. However the waters are very warm and if anything can get going it could do so pretty quickly despite the shear.

[srainhoutx]

According to the NWS discussions and forecasts I have been reading, it looks like this messy weather (associated with an inverted trough/tropical wave/weakness) will head generally westward toward Texas over the weekend. Because of this, our rain chances in Houston have been upped to 50% for tomorrow and Sunday. The main "center" of this blob though...which may try to develop given enough time...is a little more uncertain. It will all depend on how fast it can develop (IF it even does) and what speed it will travel. We will also have to see how far south that front actually gets next week in Texas. According to the latest Houston NWS AFD, there is still a lot of uncertainty:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BIT OF A COMPLICATED FORECAST. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO SHIFT TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT
AROUND TUESDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPED POPS A BIT SATURDAY. THE UPPER WEAKNESS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RADAR WAS ALREADY
PICKING UP ON THE STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. MODEL PW/S OF UP TO 2.4 INCHES ARE FORECAST INTO
AN AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. FOR
NOW THINK THAT THE COVERAGE COULD GET WIDESPREAD OVER THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT THIS AREA MAY WIDEN A
BIT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE WEAKNESS MOVES. MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AND MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE 60 PERCENT AREAS. ALSO UPPED POPS A BIT SUNDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT DIFFER IN HOW FAR SOUTHEAST TO BRING IT. THEY
ARE ALSO DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE GULF WEATHER NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY.

Seems a bit of a change in thinking going on with this AFD. Should make for a very interesting weekend to say the least.

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from the Lake Charles, LA NWS discussion
this afternoon.

THE FAVORED GFS SOLUTION NW TOWARD THE SE LA COAST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
ACTUALLY PROVIDE SOME DRYING TO THE REGION...PARTICULARY THE ERN
ZONES...AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. TOYED
WITH THE IDEA OF LOWERING POPS BACK TO JUST 20 PERCENT FOR MONDAY
BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE MOMENT LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THEN. BACKTRACKING TO SUNDAY THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH AND BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR MORE SEASONAL 40 TO MAYBE 50 POPS FOR THEN.

GULF SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS SE LA ON TUESDAY
BEFORE BEING PICKED UP AND SWEPT NE BY A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS THEN
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE
UP IN THE AIR ATTM AND HAVE ERRED TO THE WEAKER SIDE FOR NOW.

[GeneratorPower]

000
FXUS64 KHUN 071929
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
229 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...

<snip>...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF VARIANCE RUN TO RUN IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THE 5H T-5D CHARTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
SCALE TROF DIGGING INTO THE MID AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NATION...ITS MORE A MATTER OF HOW FAR SOUTH AND STRONG ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES CAN BECOME. THIS TROF SIGNALS THE FIRST REAL COOL
OUTBREAK OF THE AUTUMN SEASON ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...BUT WITH
IMPACTS IN THE SE VERY MUCH UP FOR DEBATE. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE GULF (AND EVENTUAL TRACKS INLAND) WILL PLAY
A ROLE IN THE SYNOPTICS AND FORECAST.

<snip>...


Interesting note from the guys at NWS Huntsville, AL.

[Stormcenter]

This is the afternoon NWS discussion out New Orleans, LA.
Now I can buy into the scenario they are forecasting with
the GOM mess.

LONG TERM...
THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MOST REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...
THE GULF LOW MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR SINCE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY...THEN MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IF A LOW
MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF...IT WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND START TO
ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND LINGER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

[fwbbreeze]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 072100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
357 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

SYNOPSIS: FOR THE SHORT TERM...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS THE DRY PUSH FROM THE EAST...WITH A POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED.

LONG TERM (MONDAY ON): SOME UNCERTAINTY THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND HEADING NORTH OVER LA/MS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GETTING PUSHED TO THE COAST. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. OP GFS/CANADIAN ARE THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS. AM TAKING A GENERAL "LETS GIVE THE MODELS A BIT MORE TIME TO COALESCE" APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like this could really go anywhere from Mexico to Florida if it developed. Most likey track ATM though would probably be W or WNW through the weekend with a bend more NW, N or NE by early next week. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and/or Alabama would probably be the likely end points. However, this is assuming that something tropical even forms. For all we know, this could end up amounting to nothing at all.

[perk]

This is the afternoon NWS discussion out New Orleans, LA.
Now I can buy into the scenario they are forecasting with
the GOM mess.

LONG TERM...
THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MOST REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...
THE GULF LOW MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR SINCE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY...THEN MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IF A LOW
MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF...IT WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND START TO
ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND LINGER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

All of the scenarios that i've read seem plausible to me ATM. How did you choose this one to buy into.

[Buck]

Nothing about this in the 5:30!!

[Brent]

No mention in the 5:30 TWO, only a big long paragraph on 99L which was covered in the STDS 25 minutes ago.

[Stormcenter]

This is the afternoon NWS discussion out New Orleans, LA.
Now I can buy into the scenario they are forecasting with
the GOM mess.

LONG TERM...
THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MOST REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...
THE GULF LOW MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR SINCE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY...THEN MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IF A LOW
MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF...IT WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND START TO
ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND LINGER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

All of the scenarios that i've read seem plausible to me ATM. How did you choose this one to buy into.

I based it on the front picking whatever develops (if anything) and sweeping it NE ahead of it. This of course all dependant of where the "low" develops. I think it will be south of Mobile.

[Stormcenter]

No mention in the 5:30 TWO, only a big long paragraph on 99L which was covered in the STDS 25 minutes ago.

That does not surprise me one bit.

[Sabanic]

And your reason SC?

[perk]

No mention in the 5:30 TWO, only a big long paragraph on 99L which was covered in the STDS 25 minutes ago.

That does not surprise me one bit.

Me neither.