Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Brent]

Found the west wind. Winds in all directions in the storm. I can see a message in the TWO saying an upgrade will come.

I smell a special advisory around 6pm...

[x-y-no]

Guys this might be the wrong thread but what is this?

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

Thoughts?

...

I think he like I did, thought this was talking about 99L. Just some confusion here.

they're not talking about 99L ...

I think they're talking about the low in the Gulf that the NAM forecasts.

[Bane]

that forecast is at least 9hrs old Storms in NC, I remember seeing it from earlier today where it did look a little ragged, infact that may well be from the early morning forecast.

[top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 071822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

that is the overnight forewcast that is being repeated. they'll issue a new one once they get a feel for what the recon says.

[CrazyC83]

Found the west wind. Winds in all directions in the storm. I can see a message in the TWO saying an upgrade will come.

I smell a special advisory around 6pm...

Same here. I'm thinking about 6 pm myself.

[storms in NC]

From all that is been said from NHC and NWC here in NC I would not worry over this low. Don't think we have any thing. Unless you like to look at them and say darn that could have been a good one.

These thing will drive you nuts. Hey Derek Go a head and watch your TV. LOL

[RL3AO]

Just because they found the closed low doesn't mean advisories are coming.

[wxman57]

Nothing from the plane indicates an upgrade...

Meanwhile...in the Gulf of Mexico...showers and thunderstorms are on the increase north of the Yucatan. Wonder if they will mention this in the 5:30 TWO...

MW

Mike whats your take on the Discussion i posted for south florida?

That discussion made very little sense to me. It appeared the author was talking about two separate systems. The "warm core"low north of the islands" (Bahamas - 99L) off the southeast coast and some upper-level features across the Gulf. I'm pretty sure it's not saying there will be any low forming in the Gulf.

[Brent]

From all that is been said from NHC and NWC here in NC I would not worry over this low. Don't think we have any thing. Unless you like to look at them and say darn that could have been a good one.

These thing will drive you nuts. Hey Derek Go a head and watch your TV. LOL

INTERESTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[chadtm80]

Found the west wind. Winds in all directions in the storm. I can see a message in the TWO saying an upgrade will come.

I smell a special advisory around 6pm...

Nope thats just me.. Dang brand x deodorant

[Air Force Met]

Found the west wind. Winds in all directions in the storm. I can see a message in the TWO saying an upgrade will come.

I'm pretty entertained with all the "excitement" going on around recon finding a west wind.

Come on guys...you can look at a decent vis loop and tell it has a closed circulation. You didn't need recon to tell you that...did you? Of course not...and neither did the NHC. They knew it was a closed circulation already...which is why they have been calling it "AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE"

[MBismyPlayground]

From all that is been said from NHC and NWC here in NC I would not worry over this low. Don't think we have any thing. Unless you like to look at them and say darn that could have been a good one.

These thing will drive you nuts. Hey Derek Go a head and watch your TV. LOL

INTERESTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Hmm would sitting on the beach, watching the waves with adult beverage in hand constitute "monitoring" the progress??

[vacanechaser]

Found the west wind. Winds in all directions in the storm. I can see a message in the TWO saying an upgrade will come.

I smell a special advisory around 6pm...

Nope thats just me.. Dang brand x deodorant

lol... i just finished cutting the grass... i thought it was me!!!!!!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[AJC3]

Here's the whole first paragraph of that discussion...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

DISCUSSION FROM SEP 07/0000 UTC...A 250 HPA HIGH OVER TEXAS
SUPPORTS A RIDGE OVER MIDWESTERN USA-NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
HIGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HRS. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT 500 HPA...WITH THE HIGH TO MEANDER ALONG
THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS-MEXICO (CENTRAL RIO BRAVO/GRANDE). THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN IS FEEDING COLD/POLAR ENERGY INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH CIRCULATION TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE DOMAIN. THE RETROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH 84
HRS...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-35MM...WHILE ACROSS CUBA IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-35MM. MOST INTENSE EXPECTED BETWEEN
CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO THE GULF...IT
WILL INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ACROSS THE
YUCATAN-TABASCO/CHIAPAS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO... AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM OVER SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR-WESTERN
HONDURAS.

This part...

"ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH CIRCULATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE DOMAIN."

Appears to refer to 99L, "the islands" likely referring to the Greater Antillies, and which is north of their forecast domain.

[Brent]

I just refreshed the Twister site where I get advisories and the STDS from earlier(8:45am) reloaded with a timestamp of right now. Stay tuned.

[storms in NC]

Have it mostly off shore
FXUS62 KILM 072053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
453 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ITS GRIP ON THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH SAT
WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A SHARP
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS CENTER OF LOW TO MOVE ON SHORE OVER
THE CAROLINA COAST. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE FROM LESS THEN AN
INCH SAT AFTN TO OVER 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. PCP SEEMS LIKE A
SURE BET WITH ANY MODEL YOU CHOOSE. THE NAM AND GFS BRING IN PCP
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM KEEPS THE TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER...BUT OVERALL THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ON
SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW THE MAX WINDS FORECAST ARE ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE OVER LAND. AT H7 THE WINDS MAKE IT TO 25 KTS. AS IT
STANDS NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY. EVEN IF STORM
DEVELOPS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP GREATEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. GFS IS QUICK TO PULL THE LOW TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CHCS OF PCP DECREASE RAPIDLY BY EARLY MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT KEPT HIGH CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AND DECREASE TO SLIGHT
CHC BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

[Brent]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[storms in NC]

Brent will this work

http://www.weather.gov/view/states.php?state=nc&map=on

[cycloneye]

Brent,when I first saw I thought it was the TWO.

[deltadog03]

BTW has anyone noticed that the upperlevel winds are providing about perfect ventilation for this system. I said before that the shear can and would prob. turn into a way to strenghthen our system.

[miamicanes177]

This should put to rest those who believe the NHC upgrades bogus systems just because they are close to the USA.