Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys this might be the wrong thread but what is this?

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

Thoughts?

they're not talking about 99L ...

I think they're talking about the low in the Gulf that the NAM forecasts.

The coordinates don't fit that region though. The 28N, 74W position they give is located NE of the bahamas.

update: I just saw the pro mets response to this on the other page, and it seems that this was talking about 99L after all.

[RL3AO]

[Thunder44]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

I guess those light west winds weren't strong enough for them.

[storms in NC]

INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.

That is telling me it is going to go more north.JIMO

[Bane]

INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.

That is telling me it is going to go more north.JIMO

it tells me that if you live from florida to maryland, you need to pay attention to this.

[chadtm80]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

I guess those light west winds weren't strong enough for them.

My 4 year old son can stand facing east, pass a little gas, and cause a stronger west wind

The just said they havent found a WELL DEFINED low.. they will still look, and you will eventualy prob still get your storm.. just relax and be patient

[Brent]

Ooh! Code Red! It's going to be hard to leave this screen this evening.

[BigA]

I dont understand (and I literally dont understand; I'm not trying to be critical) how they werent able to find a closed circulation if one can clearly see clouds moving in a circular/spiral pattern.

[chadtm80]

I dont understand (and I literally dont understand; I'm not trying to be critical) how they werent able to find a closed circulation if one can clearly see clouds moving in a circular/spiral pattern.

They didnt say there wasnt a closed circulation.. they said they havent yet found a WELL DEFINED circulation.. There is a LLC out there for sure though

[CrazyC83]

I dont understand (and I literally dont understand; I'm not trying to be critical) how they werent able to find a closed circulation if one can clearly see clouds moving in a circular/spiral pattern.

They didnt say there wasnt a closed circulation.. they said they havent yet found a WELL DEFINED circulation.. There is a LLC out there for sure though

What we probably need is a giant range of numbers close together.

[Brent]

I have seen numerous "poorly defined" centers get upgraded...

[cycloneye]

Grace

[GeneratorPower]

We apparently need Category 2 winds before anything is upgraded this season! Or so it seems.

All joking aside, I wonder if the new acting NHC director may be more conservative, and might have directed the staff to be a little lighter on the ol' trigger finger.

[chadtm80]

I have seen numerous "poorly defined" centers get upgraded...

And you will prob eventualy see this one get upgraded as well.. Remember when recon was in the system last time.. Didnt upgrade.. and everyones reaction was just the same as it is now about them not upgrading? What happened then? Just wait for it Won't have to wait as long this time.. They released a STDS for a reason

[Brent]

I mean the wording in that STDS makes me think an upgrade is coming tonight because they can't issue TS Watches without an upgrade, so I think we're really just in a wait mode. I hate waiting.

[RL3AO]

We apparently need Category 2 winds before anything is upgraded this season! Or so it seems.

All joking aside, I wonder if the new acting NHC director may be more conservative, and might have directed the staff to be a little lighter on the ol' trigger finger.

Remember, that before 2005, they didn't have tens of thousands of people looking at there every decision.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U. S. SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[dtrain44]

Might be a touch off topic, but is it actually impossible to issue tropical storm watches without an identified TD/TS? I would think that it would make a lot of sense in some circumstances to do that for an invest that is likely to become a cyclone, has not become a cyclone yet, and is likely to hit land before long. That might be confusing, but I'm just wondering if it's against NHC policy to do that....

[Brent]

Might be a touch off topic, but is it actually impossible to issue tropical storm watches without an identified TD/TS? I would think that it would make a lot of sense in some circumstances to do that for an invest that is likely to become a cyclone, has not become a cyclone yet, and is likely to hit land before long. That might be confusing, but I'm just wondering if it's against NHC policy to do that....

I have never seen watches without an official TD at least. Don't think it can happen, which is why I expect an upgrade at 11pm, if not before. It's not possible otherwise.

[RL3AO]

Might be a touch off topic, but is it actually impossible to issue tropical storm watches without an identified TD/TS? I would think that it would make a lot of sense in some circumstances to do that for an invest that is likely to become a cyclone, has not become a cyclone yet, and is likely to hit land before long. That might be confusing, but I'm just wondering if it's against NHC policy to do that....

The NHC can't/won't do that.