No cone for South Florida so far this year

[boca]

Since 2004 we have been in the cone of death every year since 2004.So far this year nothing. Maybe we won't have any threats this year although alittle premature to say that yet. A trough is supposed to dig down in the Central Atlantic causing the pattern to change so everything coming off Africa will head WNW to NW.My source of info was the NWS in San Juan Puerto Rico.

MID ATLC UPPER TROF FORECAST TO SHIFT SW AND EXTEND
INTO LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND AFFECT
THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO DRAW APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVES IN A MORE WNW TO NW TRAJECTORY AS THEY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
ATLC TOWARDS THE E/NE CARIB...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RECENT
PATTERN THAT FORCED DEAN AND FELIX ALMOST DUE W. GLOBAL MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE W AFRICAN COAST...BUT THIS
FORECAST STEERING FLOW...IF CORRECT...WOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM W
THEN NW AND INTO W CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...TIS THE PEAK OF THE
SEASON...SO EVERY TROPICAL WAVE BEARS WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL
REGION...REGARDLESS OF INITIAL MODEL IMPRESSIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

[caneman]

Boca,

Did you already forget that Barry hit us in Tampa with tons of rain? I know it was insignificant wind wise but it does makes this thread unnecessary and not true.

[boca]

Yes I did forget about Barry oops. I'm changing the title to South Florida.

[HeatherAKC]

I was thinking the other day that perhaps this is the year we in South Florida truly get a break! A whole season out of the cone! And I don't think we have been in cone since Ernesto? Let's hope this TREND continues!

[KWT]

Also a lot of Florida was in the cone for STS andrea as well:

http://www.thestormtrack.com/145632W_sm-thumb.gif

[hiflyer]

Thank goodness I didn't look at the long range radars out of EYW and TPA...and didn't look at several loops of the eastern GOM....and it is great that several buoys in that area are either out of service or adrift.....and of course didn't notice the 86 deg sst's....

naaaaah

[windstorm99]

Boca i think its way to early for us yet...I mean we have all of september and october which can be busy for us in south florida with cold fronts and development.My fear is if we get a coldfront this year stalling in the gulf or in the eastern caribbean with those waters being very warm in the caribbean we could be in some trouble if the set up is right.

[Frank2]

As Alton Brown would say - make my cone one of those waffle cones that support soft chocolate or vanilla ice cream - those are the kind that interest me (and is good eats)...

LOL

P.S. Yes, that trough will definitely make a big difference, and (depending on how long it lingers) would perhaps end the CV season...

[KWT]

We may not even need the east coast trough Frank, there is a neat looking lowin the mid-Atlantic right now ad given the synotpic pattern may be slow to change due to the very -ve GLAAM it may not be til lthe end of September before that strong weakness is got rid off and by which time the CV should be slowing down or finishing...

However of course that doesn't mean that homebrews can't be a threat and even with a weakness there are always systems that can slip thorugh the net.

[windstorm99]

Everybody is for getting how SST'S are in the caribbean even though they might have cooled some due to the major canes but once we get into october things have the potential to be busy for us in south florida with systems coming up from the south.

[Category 5]

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Don't tempt the weather gods.

[lux1a4]

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Don't tempt the weather gods.

yeh, this is probably a thread better created after a season is over.. not in the peak.

[Decomdoug]

Oh No!! that's it, now we are jinxed

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Definitely jinxed...

[jinftl]

A pattern towards troughs as we move through September and into October could be the worst thing for us here in South Fla....anything that gets going in the Western Caribbean will move north and northeast...instead of the west we have been seeing....

[Jinkers]

Bad thread, now we're in for it... lol

[Brent]

You jinxed it with this thread.

[flwxwatcher]

92L just might put South Florida in the Cone before this week is out.

[HURAKAN]

If 92L continues to develop then you can change the title to "One cone for .... "!!!

[gatorcane]

looks like 92L will not do it....

still no cone here for South Florida this season