Daily tropical updates and advisories

#121 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 24, 2003 6:19 am

Tropical weather outlook 6:30 AM EDT 6/24/03 Atlantic basin Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

An area of disturbed weather is located in the western caribbean sea as an upper low is interacting with a tropical wave.Pressures are fairly low in the region but there are so far no signs of development however the storm2k forecasters will monitor this area.

Elsewhere...Tropical storm formation is not expected thru thursday.

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

Colin · #122 Postby **Colin** » Tue Jun 24, 2003 9:48 am

I agree... this feature will have to be watched extremely closely! :o I have a weird feeling about this system... we'll just have to keep a very close eye on this system and see what it does the next few days!

#123 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 24, 2003 4:05 pm

Tropical weather outlook 5:00 PM EDT 6/24/03 Atlantic basin Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)Storm2k forecaster

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#124 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jun 24, 2003 7:50 pm

The disturbance continues to hang on today. In fact, convection increased for a while. Taking a look at the latest WV loop, I can clearly see the upper-level low center just east of the Yucatan now. It does appear to be weakening. Convectin is firing on the eastern perimeter of the low. Since it looks like the convection may persist <b>and</b> remain over water for the next few days (or more), I've upped my estimation for the chances of TD/TS development from 10-15% to 20-30%. It's interesting that both the GFS and NOGAPS are now calling for some type of development near the northern Yucatan beyond 72-96 hours. The GFS indicates some type of landfall near Mobile on Sunday/Monday.

One thing I notice, though, is that the GFS indicates moderate SW shear across the northern Gulf. Assuming its predictions are good (big assumption), then anything which develops probably will be hindered by the increasing shear across the northern Gulf.

Still, I only give it a 20-30% chance at this time, that's 70-80% chance it won't develop. A lot of things will have to become just right for it to develop.

Colin · #125 Postby **Colin** » Tue Jun 24, 2003 7:57 pm

I see you increased your previous 10-15% development chance to 20-30% development chance... We'll see what happens and we'll have to keep a very close eye on it! :o

ColdFront77 · #126 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 24, 2003 8:17 pm

There we go... my case that we shouldn't write something off because the chances were and/or are so low. June and just in the right location where several tropical systems have developed during the very early portion of the Hurricane Season.

Something to watch no matter if it remains what it is now (even from a decrease in convection from what it is now to flaring up like it did today).

#127 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 24, 2003 8:59 pm

Tropical weather outlook 10:00 PM EDT 6/24/03 Atlantic basin Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster.

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#128 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 6:36 am

Not much has changed overnight organization-wise. Convection remains ragged. Wave axis is now at 85-86W. Upper level low seems weaker. New model data still suggest TD development NW of Yucatan beyond 72hrs, but model data frequently advertise such lows which never develop. I think a 20-30% chance of development still holds (70-80% chance it won't). And that chance is for beyond 72 hrs. The chances of it developing within 72 hours may be only 5-10%. There's just too much shear now, still.

A little rain-producer named Allison started out sort of like this 2 years ago. It never really became very strong wind-wise, but it sure dropped some rain. So, if nothing else, there may be a possiblity of some heavy rain along the Gulf coast near the end of June.

#129 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 6:55 am

6:30am tropical update for Wednesday June 25, 2003 is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#130 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 10:17 am

The 11:30am tropical update for Wednesday June 25, 2003 is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm along with a map showing a close up of the area.

#131 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:57 pm

Tropical weather outlook 5:00 PM EDT 6/24/03 Atlantic basin (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#132 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 9:00 pm

Tropical weather outlook 10:00 PM EDT 6/25/03 Atlantic basin Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#133 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 26, 2003 7:14 am

The 7:00am tropical update for Thursday June 26, 2003 is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm.

Rainband · #134 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 26, 2003 8:45 am

vbhoutex wrote:The 7:00am tropical update for Thursday June 26, 2003 is posted at: http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm.

Bad link!!! :wink:

#135 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:32 am

Tropical weather outlook 11:00 AM EDT 6/26/03 Atlantic basin Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

Here is link to my outlook.

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

Stormsfury · #136 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jun 26, 2003 4:06 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
For The North Atlantic Region
Issued: 5:00 pm EDT / June 26th, 2003
Forecaster: Stormsfury

Details can be found here at WeatherCentral ...
http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

SF

#137 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 26, 2003 9:02 pm

Tropical weather outlook 10:00 PM EDT 6/26/03 Atlantic Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#138 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 27, 2003 4:43 am

The 5am EDT Atlantic Basin Tropical update for Friday June 27, 2003 can be found at http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

#139 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 27, 2003 6:58 am

That picture you posted vbhou doesn't look anything like the image I'm looking at dated 6:24am today. There is a lone cluster of storms inland over the Yuctan north of Belize and another over western Cuba moving NE toward the Bahamas. There was a flare-up of tstms west of Jamaica late last night, though, but that didn't last. I see another single thunderstorm east of the Bahamas. Perhaps that image was from 06Z? In any case, if this wave is to develop, it needs to have a stable cluster of storms, not these transitory flare-ups.

I can't see any evidence of a circulation center at any level. But one thing I do notice is that the trof through the Bahamas to the Yucatan does appear to be weakening, so we can't give up on this thing. I don't think we'll see any development through 48 hours.

mf_dolphin · #140 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Jun 27, 2003 7:01 am

That was a picture from yesterday. As soon as Chad wakes up I'm sure he'll update it :-)

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