Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cycloneye]

Topsail not Top Soil

Yes,I fixed it.

[hurricanedude]

dont much matter if its goes straight to TS status....35 mph td or 40 mph ts....not much difference

[weatherman21]

From taking a closer look at the latest IR satellite imagery, it looks as though this disturbance has a slightly similar structural appearance to what the early formation of Katrina had before it hit Florida. Not totally sure on this, but does anyone agree?
Obviously, the deep convection which Katrina had in the frame below was far more intense than the convection in assocation with this disturbance, but it seems the overall structure is somewhat similar.

IR of Katrina before hitting Florida:


IR of current disturbance at 0:15Z:

[storms in NC]

Topsail not Top Soil

Put some sand in a jar and sale it on e-bay

[Wthrman13]

Shear does not ventilate the storm, the UL divergence does. Shear is pretty much never beneficial in and of itself for a developing tropical system. It just so happens that UL lows usually have regions of shear surrounding them. Depending on the location of the tropical disturbance relative to the UL, the system can find itself in a region of UL divergence and/or strong vertical wind shear. The best case is if it is in a region of UL divergence, with low shear. The point is that there is no such thing as "favorable shear" for a tropical system. It's all about the UL divergence, and UL lows/troughs can enhance that for tropical systems, but sometimes at the expense of providing too much shear as well. Sometimes a system can intensify even under the presence of shear, and this is usually due to some sort of baroclinic mechanism, sometimes resulting in a subtropical storm, but this only goes far. To really get a cranking TC, you need to relax the shear to very low values.

EDIT: I should point out that when I'm talking about shear above, I mean shear that is positioned directly over a TC's center that is associated with external influences. All TC's have strong vertical shear on their outskirts, due in part to their own outflow (which is anticyclonic, being positioned directly over the low-level inflow, which is cyclonic).

Is the ULL in a position to continue helping this thing intensify, or will it hinder it?

Currently, as I stated earlier in this thread, it is providing enhanced UL divergence with weaker shear (than on previous days), so theoretically it should help it to intensify, especially if the shear continues to weaken, as it appears it is doing. The conditions are still not ideal, of course, but they are improving. Others have also mentioned that the moisture envelope surrounding the system is improving as well.

[Derek Ortt]

This needs one good convective burst to form a well-defined LLC

Predicting the burst, however, is nearly impossible

[storms in NC]

dont much matter if its goes straight to TS status....35 mph td or 40 mph ts....not much difference

True I should said Cat 1 or 2.

[storms in NC]

This needs one good convective burst to form a well-defined LLC

Predicting the burst, however, is nearly impossible

I haven't been on for a few hours. Where are they saying it might go into or not go into. And as a TS or a cat 1. Is it going west or WNW or NW

[hurricanedude]

NC most likely...but SC to VA is the cone I think...as a strong TS or min cane

[hurricanedude]

another question...at the latitude that this is developing....does a more rapid intensifaction mean a quicker poleward motion, or is that true only in the deep tropics?

[Brent]

0z models, a 40 kt invest.

It looks totally strange to be 40 kt and still an invest... it is SO close.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Derek Ortt]

RI NEVER means quicker poleward motion

Mor eintense storms merely follow a deeper steering flow. In Felix' case, it meant more south

[hurricanedude]

whats the link to that sat pic?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[txwatcher91]

This needs one good convective burst to form a well-defined LLC

Predicting the burst, however, is nearly impossible

So Derek, did the recon find a warm core system, or is it still cold core like it was on Tuesday?

[Derek Ortt]

havn't checked the temps

It had a low-level warm core on Wednesday and a well-defined circulation. Just the lack of a well-defined circulation shows how much this degenerated yesterday

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



I'M A MODERATOR!!!

[cycloneye]

Welcome HURAKAN (Sandy) to the staff of moderators.

Bienvenido Sandy a nuestro staff de moderadores.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Congrats hurakan...This system does look very organized over all, but still no well defined LLC.

[storms in NC]

Latest:



I'M A MODERATOR!!!

where is the low on your map. I can't see tonight. Eye burning.