Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[chadtm80]

whats the link to that sat pic?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[seahawkjd]

Just saw ships has it initialized at 45 knots. Is that real data or a model estimate?

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest:



I'M A MODERATOR!!!

whoa...how did that happen? did it just randomly happen or did u apply?

[Bane]

congrats hurakan!

[Buck]

Derek, do you think NHC will start issuing advisories on this by 11pm? Would you start if you were them?

[brunota2003]

Was watching TWC's 8:50 pm edt Tropical Update...Dr. Lyons mentioned there was a surface report of 53 mph sustained, but they were trying to find out what it was from (i.e. ship) and if it was accurate.

[fox13weather]

FWIW, My computer model page has it initialized as a TS.

[chadtm80]

Derek, do you think NHC will start issuing advisories on this by 11pm? Would you start if you were them?

Recon flies again tonight, so I would assume they would want to wait for that info

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No the nhc will not issue Advisories on this invest intill they find a closed LLC. A LLC that has a closed surface wind field and is defined.

[Bane]

once this thing gets it's low levels defined, it could easily strengthen to a hurricane. i've seen several storms in this area grow quickly.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek, do you think NHC will start issuing advisories on this by 11pm? Would you start if you were them

I'm just writing another TDS on NWHHC right now indicating that I will NOT begin updates tonight (even if NHC begins advisories)

I want to be certain that there is a surface circulation associated with this system and aircraft data only indicated a broad circulation

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Was watching TWC's 8:50 pm edt Tropical Update...Dr. Lyons mentioned there was a surface report of 53 mph sustained, but they were trying to find out what it was from (i.e. ship) and if it was accurate.

Strong high pressure to the north and a low pressure. That makes strong winds.

[Stephanie]

Just when we were starting to think that the shear killed it...

Looks like she's trying to wrap around. The models and forecasters have done a good job with predicting that the shear will subside.

Makes total sense to me Derek.

[txwatcher91]

once this thing gets it's low levels defined, it could easily strengthen to a hurricane. i've seen several storms in this area grow quickly.

I remember Felix, Andrew, Wilma, etc. It will definately not grow that strong, but I think a strong Cat 1 or low Cat 2 is completely possible. According to a local met, the pressure gradient should make this thing have a fairly large windfield, and it could also allow it to strengthen quicker because of the difference in pressure from the high and this low pressure area.

[Derek Ortt]

maybe Shannon can correct me if I am wrong, but there are very few nighttime invest missions. I believe the last one was Erin in 1995, and that wa sonly because the system was impacting the Bahamas and warnings needed to be issued the second it became a tropical storm. I am not certain it is 100% that recon will fly tonight, but if I'm wrong, please let me know Shannon

[Scott_inVA]

Hi folks!

00Z model maps I do initialized Invest 99L as a Tropical Storm (note symbol in the 00Z model map below)



When this occurs, TPC typically goes with named status at with the pending F/A package. Looks like Gabby is here.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

['CaneFreak]

what do you think about intensity scott?

[fox13weather]

I noticed the same thing ...my model page has it initialized as a TS.

[cycloneye]

They are debating among themselves in the NHC office if they will upgrade or not with the data they have until now.

[Bane]

Hi folks!

00Z model maps I do initialized Invest 99L as a Tropical Storm (note symbol in the 00Z model map below)



When this occurs, TPC typically goes with named status at with the pending F/A package. Looks like Gabby is here.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

looks like a big black box.