Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

Maybe the second big Cape Verde storm? (Felix formed too far west)

What are the steering currents like in the central Atlantic?

[punkyg]

Going to bed tell me if wxman57 ever comments on this wave
and also i better see a storm in the making tomorrow or i will scream! i hat subtropical systems.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Take a look!

[cycloneye]

If trend of organization continues to improve,I can see invest tagged to this tommorow.

[Anthonyl]

The question with this future system is track. Will the trough really inluence the move ment of this system?

[Vortex]

After reviewing the forecasted synoptic environment....It appears the developing cyclone will move W for the next 36-48 hrs and organize. Thereafter, a possible slow down and turn to the NW is likely in response to a deep North Atlantic storm which should cause a breakdown in the sub-tropical ridge over the central atlantic.

The key is this may be temporary and after a slowdown and turn to the NW for 24-36 hours there are indications the ridge will build back in once again to the north of the storm and may turn back W/WNW.....

Lets see if the 00z guidance reflects this...

[cycloneye]

[ROCK]

The question with this future system is track. Will the trough really inluence the move ment of this system?

the 18Z GFS, EURO thinks so however the 12Z NOGAPS, UKMET don't....guessing it depends how far south it consolidates. I wouldn't watch the blob to the north. I am looking more south than that for a LLC to take off...

[ROCK]

After reviewing the forecasted synoptic environment....It appears the developing cyclone will move W for the next 36-48 hrs and organize. Thereafter, a possible slow down and turn to the NW is likely in response to a deep North Atlantic storm which should cause a breakdown in the sub-tropical ridge over the central atlantic.

The key is this may be temporary and after a slowdown and turn to the NW for 24-36 hours there are indications the ridge will build back in once again to the north of the storm and may turn back W/WNW.....

Lets see if the 00z guidance reflects this...

0z GFS rolling in keeps as an open wave and west at 102hrs...something trys to spin up behind though....

[cycloneye]

It is starting to come to view in the Central Atlantic image.

[marcane_1973]

If trend of organization continues to improve,I can see invest tagged to this tommorow.

Yes this wave looks very good and if it continues to improve like you say it should become an invest real soon. I have been paying all my attention to Rocky's comeback sister Gabrielle all day and haven't even been looking towards the coast of Africa. Awww.... the H names. They have a reputation of being some real BIG nasty canes. I think this wave has potential to be another classic CV Hurricane but hopefully not as strong as Hugo. We sure don't need a monster like that developing out that far in the Atlantic. Seems it has a nice environment ahead of it to get going. This system also looks as though it might be forming far south enough to not get picked up by a trough and get turned out to sea. What have the models been hinting at later on down the road???

[chadtm80]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is taking on some classic futures over the last few hours. It is forming a nice pull of moisture from the itcz, also it has little shear(besideds eastly maybe) and the air is moist. This system has to be watched for some development.

[njweather]

09/08/2007 00Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The GFS 00Z seems to be pulling it upwards, into the North-Central Atlantic (toward the low), crossing 20N in approx. 126 hours.

Any thoughts?

[KWT]

Does look very good for the moment, will be an invest soon if it keeps this up a little longer.

By the way you an clearly see the weakness causing system swirling awa to the NE of STS Gabby. This wil lget to about 30-40W then feel the weakness and tug WNW/NW.

IMO a close match to this may well be Helene from last year, maybe slightly slower to organise but track may be close IMO.

[windstorm99]

This area is likely to get tagged by NRL later today....We'll Organized.

[Meso]

It has a really good set up.. The first wave moved off to the SW of it,creating moisture for it to feed off,and then the main wave rolled off and lost convection maybe due to a bit of SAL but then as it progressed another clusture formed behind it in Africa and that moved off right behind it,blocking it from the little SAL there is.You can see a large moisture envelope on the discussed wave too.

[KWT]

Looks like its already moving a touch north of west though then again on a 6hr updating loop its very hard to say. Still i think this has a fair shout at becoming Humberto in the future. looks like it'll form far enough to feel the weakness to its north. Nice big convective complex behind it should prevent SAL intrusion, though itll be interesting if that tries to form as well.

[windstorm99]

Looks like its already moving a touch north of west though then again on a 6hr updating loop its very hard to say. Still i think this has a fair shout at becoming Humberto in the future. looks like it'll form far enough to feel the weakness to its north. Nice big convective complex behind it should prevent SAL intrusion, though itll be interesting if that tries to form as well.

As per the NHC 1030pm outlook last night the wave was moving to the west at 10-15mph.

Waiting on this mornings.

[KWT]

It probably is averaging around west but slightly north of west, probably about 275 degrees, but without higher resolution Sat.imagery and faster updating times its more just guesswork I suppose as to its motion. The general direction is about west though broadly.