Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#161 Postby seahawkjd » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:42 am

Definetely becoming less exposed. Looks like some very good convection is pulling directly over the circulation now.
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#162 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:43 am

THE EXPANSION OF THE BURST:

EXPOSED:
Image

NOT EXPOSED:
Image
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Re: Re:

#163 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:44 am

wxman57 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Based on speed alone, if it's moving that fast, LF is more likely. If it slows, it's more likely to miss.

Overall, LF looking less likely though IMO.


I just adjusted my track eastward to just grazing the Outer Banks. Won't be too much of a storm there. They may be disappointed in the amount of rain,too.

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.


Yeah, only 40mb...close call. At least JB got it right that there would be development in this area
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Re: Re:

#164 Postby storms in NC » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:45 am

wxman57 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Based on speed alone, if it's moving that fast, LF is more likely. If it slows, it's more likely to miss.

Overall, LF looking less likely though IMO.


I just adjusted my track eastward to just grazing the Outer Banks. Won't be too much of a storm there. They may be disappointed in the amount of rain,too.

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.


Why do you think this? It could very well do so. But for some reason NC don't do what they say. Have to see how it moves today. Sould have a better pin point later this afternoon. But SC-NC line up needs to keep a eye on it till it moves more north
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#165 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:46 am

If you count from -(infinity) to +(infinity), JB made a really, almost perfect, call!!!
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#166 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:46 am

HURAKAN wrote:THE EXPANSION OF THE BURST:

EXPOSED:
Image

NOT EXPOSED:
Image

center still half exposed, but improving. The big convection burst will likely start a chain reaction of forming convection
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Re: Re:

#167 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:46 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Based on speed alone, if it's moving that fast, LF is more likely. If it slows, it's more likely to miss.

Overall, LF looking less likely though IMO.


I just adjusted my track eastward to just grazing the Outer Banks. Won't be too much of a storm there. They may be disappointed in the amount of rain,too.

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.


Yeah, only 40mb...close call. At least JB got it right that there would be development in this area


Umso did the little computers: GFDL,GFS,EURO..ECT...Don't take a genius to deduct from all the pretty colors..
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#168 Postby seahawkjd » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:49 am

So a bit of a derailment and I apoligize completely for it, but is the chat room down or is there some special rank you have to have to enter it? I keep getting forbidden errors.
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#169 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:51 am

seahawkjd wrote:So a bit of a derailment and I apoligize completely for it, but is the chat room down or is there some special rank you have to have to enter it? I keep getting forbidden errors.



Depends if your really NATE or not..LOL
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#170 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:52 am

seahawkjd wrote:So a bit of a derailment and I apoligize completely for it, but is the chat room down or is there some special rank you have to have to enter it? I keep getting forbidden errors.


Don't use the link on s2k. Use this for java: http://www.esper.net/pjirc/storm2k.html
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#171 Postby Shullate » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:05 am

Does it look to anyone else like the center is a bit further west than the forecast point?
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#172 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:06 am

Doesn't look too healthy this morning. I suspect recon might have a hard time finding TS force winds:

Image
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#173 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:07 am

Looks way better then it did yesterday, when they found 48 knot flight level winds. The center is mostly under the convection, at least the core. Also a buoy near it shown 35 knot winds.
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#174 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:08 am

Shullate wrote:Does it look to anyone else like the center is a bit further west than the forecast point?


Just a hair but it's insignificant. Don't focus on where the center of this poorly-organized storm is or is heading. Focus on where the heavy squalls are. The squalls have the strong wind, the strong wind isn't at/near the center like a well-organized TC.
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#175 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:09 am

the center looked better defined earlier when it was not covered by the convection

I suspect we will see intensification today due to the convection over the center increasing the low-level convergence
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#176 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:12 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks way better then it did yesterday, when they found 48 knot flight level winds. The center is mostly under the convection, at least the core. Also a buoy near it shown 35 knot winds.


It does look better than yesterday. I saw that buoy to the NW of the center. That's probably the only area with any TS-force winds this morning. I don't see anything to indicate TS force winds in the NE, SE, or SW quadrants. It doesn't show any signs of rapidly getting better organized, so not too much of a threat to the Outer Banks. Just a moderate TS. Hurricane threat is about gone now. Just not enough time and conditions aren't favorable enough.
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Re: Re:

#177 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:14 am

wxman57 wrote:Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.
If you're referring to JB then well he nailed this thing and performed better than any pro met I have heard. If I recall, he was not forecasting 970mb until just prior to landfall on sunday. Today is saturday morning at 9am. Regardless of its intensity at/near landfall he performed extremely well and stuck to his guns when other mets got cold feet. Kudos to JB in my opinion for his excellent call on this storm.
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Re: Re:

#178 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:22 am

miamicanes177 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.
If you're referring to JB then well he nailed this thing and performed better than any pro met I have heard. If I recall, he was not forecasting 970mb until just prior to landfall on sunday. Today is saturday morning at 9am. Regardless of its intensity at/near landfall he performed extremely well and stuck to his guns when other mets got cold feet. Kudos to JB in my opinion for his excellent call on this storm.


Oh, I agree that Joe called it almost a week ago. He was just a bit too enthusiastic as to the intensity, probably biased by his high landfall numbers. We notified our clients on Tuesday morning of a potential hurricane threat on the Mid Atlantic Coast this weekend. Of course, we removed the hurricane threat from the forecast now, as the chances Gabrielle will become a hurricane prior to reaching NC in 24 hours are remote.

One problem with Joe is that he talks about just about every thunderstorm in the tropics as if it could become a hurricane at some point down the road. He's kind of like the Canadian model in that respect. He'll never miss one that does develop, but about 95% of the times when he calls for possible development nothing does. I enjoy watching him, though.
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#179 Postby bjackrian » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:26 am

It looks like the outer edge of the big plume of convection to the northwest of the center is just starting to come into view on Morehead radar:
Loop: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Still: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MHX&loop=no
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Discussions and Images

#180 Postby flwxwatcher » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:27 am

Yes. J.B. made this call several days in advance and that was a great call but like WXMAN57 pointed out he did overdo it with his intensity forecast of a 970 MB or lower storm by Sunday Morning.
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