Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[wxman57]

By the way, no buoy reported 35 kt wind, that was a ship that's traveling north just NW of the center - right in the heaviest squalls.

Latest satellite loops shows the squalls on the NW side a bit farther away from the center now.

[gotoman38]

Ship report from near the storm

DDSB2 - MARITIME-ship
2007-09-08 13:00:00 UTC
Temperature: 77°F
Dewpoint: 76°F
Wind: NE at 34 mph
Pressure: 1012 mb
Wave Height: 3 ft

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot showing that ship's current report of 25 kts. Ship is moving to the north. Red "X" is Gabrielle's center, which is becoming more exposed by the minute:

[txwatcher91]

What is causing the center to become exposed? shear maps show very light shear. Is it the dry air?

[Chacor]

TCMAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW
POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[seahawkjd]

It still looks to me like the convection is firing up nicely and moving over the center. I'm confused as to what others are seeing as far as it becoming more exposed.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC Close to Cane now near OBX...

[ncbird]

Another G storm history

Gustav - Sept. 8 to 12, 2002

Sept. 8 Subtropical Depression about 440 n mi S-SE of Cape Hatteras, NC 29.0N 71.0W

Sept. 8 Subtropical Storm Gustav 30.2N 71.1W

Sept. 10 Tropical Storm Gustav 33.7N 75.4W

Sept. 10 Strikes Outer Banks of NC as 55 kt Tropical Storm (see note below)

Sept. 11 Hurricane Gustav 38.0N 70.8W

Sept. 11 Peaked at 85 kts 40.3N 66.8W

Sept. 12 Landfall near Kelpy Cove, Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia

Sept. 12 Landfall near Rose-Blanche-Harbour le Cou, Newfoundland

Sept. 12 Extratropical 48.6N 57.7W

Sept. 15 Dissipated in the Labrador Sea

Sept 10th note: Even though no landfall was made because the center of circulation stayed offshore, the radius of maximum winds passed over portions of the Outer Banks and thus counts as a "strike" on the area.

[Chacor]

[wxman57]

It still looks to me like the convection is firing up nicely and moving over the center. I'm confused as to what others are seeing as far as it becoming more exposed.

Perhaps this image will help. The northwest side of the center is now completely out of the cirrus shield of the convection to the northwest. Fully exposed. A bit south of the NHC's 10am CDT forecast position, though. I estimate 31.2N/74.1W at 9:32am CDT.

[Tom8]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

what about pressure ? any one know more ?

[wxman57]

And more exposed on the next image. Recon is on the way there, I suspect they'll find 1009-1010mb and steady.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Sanibel]

Systems can revv up quickly in this area once they get covered.

[txwatcher91]

Systems can revv up quickly in this area once they get covered.

It has not reached the gulf stream yet, so it could itensify some more tonight with lighter shear, warmer waters. and the DMAX

[wxman57]

And yet more exposed. Southeasterly wind shear is definitely on the increase. Take a look at a WV loop. Convection is racing away from the exposed LLC. Not a sign of increasing organization or development. Also note that the LLC is barely moving now.

[txwatcher91]

And yet more exposed. Southeasterly wind shear is definitely on the increase. Take a look at a WV loop. Convection is racing away from the exposed LLC. Not a sign of increasing organization or development. Also note that the LLC is barely moving now.

Wxman57, what is causing the increase in shear? Is it that ULL? Do you think we will see any rain here in Greenville, NC?
thanks

[MGC]

Yesterday I didn't think Gabrielle would make landfall and I still think she will just miss the Outerbanks Sunday as a 65mph TS. The high to Gabrielle's north is moving eastward as a trough approachs from the west. This should allow Gabrielle to turn northward then to the NNE tomorrow. Gabrielle should strengthen some as the ULL moves away and the shear relaxes some....MGC

[wxman57]

And yet more exposed. Southeasterly wind shear is definitely on the increase. Take a look at a WV loop. Convection is racing away from the exposed LLC. Not a sign of increasing organization or development. Also note that the LLC is barely moving now.

Wxman57, what is causing the increase in shear? Is it that ULL? Do you think we will see any rain here in Greenville, NC?
thanks

Look at a WV loop. Gabrielle is moving around the southwestern side of the ridge now. Looks like some strong mid-level southeasterly winds blowing across the center. The upper low is moving off to the southwest, so it won't be able to enhance convection near Gabrielle's center any more. Jack, uh, Gabrielle is fighting for its life again. I think it'll survive, but it's not likely going to reach 55kt intensity and it will probably pass east of the Outer Banks due to the slower forward motion. May not get much out of it in NC.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting day so far. This am dead calm with a few altocumulus off to the se. Now numerous fair weather cumulus. Winds now around 10 max, average only about 5 or so. The east shift in NHC now takes it just east of us but we are in the 80% range for tropical winds. Looks like we will get some rain as long as the nw side of the storm stays fat. Come on rain. Of course I don't know how people will act when it rains, I fear everyone will be out in the rain like turkeys. It has been a long time since we've seen any rain