Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[Tom8]

It is wery fast wind now on the land from the NE

you can see it here
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

this mean that rains should move to the South Carolina after hurricane will enter to the land .

[HURAKAN]

Latest:





Completely exposed at the moment.

[wxman57]

Well, with the center fully exposed it's easy to estimate speed/heading. For a 4-hr movement I get 292 deg and 27.4 miles, that's about 7 mph. The slower it goes now, the less chance NC will see much out of it rain-wise.

[storms in NC]

And yet more exposed. Southeasterly wind shear is definitely on the increase. Take a look at a WV loop. Convection is racing away from the exposed LLC. Not a sign of increasing organization or development. Also note that the LLC is barely moving now.

Wxman57, what is causing the increase in shear? Is it that ULL? Do you think we will see any rain here in Greenville, NC?
thanks

The blob to the NW of the center will come over east of NC. I will get some rain out of it but I don't know if Greeneville will or not. But I am almost stright up from Surf City. I live about 10 miles east of wallace. Surf City is 50 miles from here.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



EXPOSED.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WOW the shear is kicking its back side hard. It has to be 15 knots or more.

[wxman57]

The blob to the NW of the center will come over east of NC. I will get some rain out of it but I don't know if Greeneville will or not. But I am almost straight up from Surf City. I live about 10 miles east of wallace. Surf City is 50 miles from here.

It may, but as it moves north the upper flow will be from the southwest, moving the heavier squalls east of the center. That NW blob may be gone in 12 hours.

[storms in NC]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

True. you can see some comeing in on Radar now.

Going out for a few hours. See how thing are later

[Frank2]

Well, it seems that we were all wrong about this system, at least to some extent - it did develop (though some of us didn't think it would), but, slower than expected (though some thought correctly that it would not until Friday), not as strong as some forecasted (though the circulation might look like a hurricane, it definitely is not one), and, not on a due westward track, as many OCM's had earlier mentioned, so...

It looks like it was a tie - everyone was wrong...

LOL

[OuterBanker]

True we could miss out on the rain Wx. But that's also assuming the front also moves as expected. Anyone want to send me a rain dance instructional video.

[storms in NC]

The leaves on the trees are dieing. That is how dry it is here. No fall leaves this year

[wxman57]

FYI, I'm measuring a 1 hr movement of 10.9 miles at 25.8 degrees. That's NNE. Shouldn't use such a short-term movement for a projected track, though. Let's see if it really has made a turn to the north or NNE over the next 3-6 hours. Probably just a short term wobble. At 16Z, the center was near 31.3N/74.1W. At 15Z, center was near 31.2N/74.2W. I'm using real positions with high-res satellite, not the NHC forecasted 15Z position.

Looks like I'm going to have to adjust my next forecast farther east. What a waste of (my) time storm. I could be outside doing something fun today...

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[storms in NC]

FYI, I'm measuring a 1 hr movement of 10.9 miles at 25.8 degrees. That's NNE. Shouldn't use such a short-term movement for a projected track, though. Let's see if it really has made a turn to the north or NNE over the next 3-6 hours. Probably just a short term wobble.

That wouldn't get a true reading. I see it going North a tap but with my eyes I didn't see the NNE. Not saying it's. I just could see it.

[Brent]

This storm is BORING. What a waste of a few days waiting for it to develop. WOW, the Outer Banks might get one shower. Big deal.

NEXT. Where's Humberto?

This will go under Andrea/Barry/Chantal/Erin as pointless storms.

[storms in NC]

This storm is BORING. What a waste of a few days waiting for it to develop. WOW, the Outer Banks might get one shower. Big deal.

NEXT. Where's Humberto?

This will go under Andrea/Barry/Chantal/Erin as pointless storms.

It would have been nice for the rain. I don't think we in NC will see much this year. And yes it was pointless. But hey last night it looked better than today does.

[Extremecane]

Did a new center just form under the convection and the old cnter pulling away.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Thunder44]

Well, it seems that we were all wrong about this system, at least to some extent - it did develop (though some of us didn't think it would), but, slower than expected (though some thought correctly that it would not until Friday), not as strong as some forecasted (though the circulation might look like a hurricane, it definitely is not one), and, not on a due westward track, as many OCM's had earlier mentioned, so...

It looks like it was a tie - everyone was wrong...

LOL

The only people who have been most accurate so far the NHC mets. And that's by not hyping up the storm to hurricane or giving up on it developing at all. I think were too influenced about what see on currently on a few satellite images and not thinking more about could be different in the future. The NHC said in their discussion that shear is forecast to lessen tonight before it picks up again tomorrow. But I can see dead post and it's going out to sea coming again in this afternoon.

[wxman57]

FYI, I'm measuring a 1 hr movement of 10.9 miles at 25.8 degrees. That's NNE. Shouldn't use such a short-term movement for a projected track, though. Let's see if it really has made a turn to the north or NNE over the next 3-6 hours. Probably just a short term wobble.

That wouldn't get a true reading. I see it going North a tap but with my eyes I didn't see the NNE. Not saying it's. I just could see it.

I'm running GARP and zooming in real close on a 1k resolution visible satellite. I place my mouse cursor in the dead center of the LLC and click it to set the position on the 1445Z image. Then I advance the image 4 frames to 1625Z and put my mouse over the center of the LLC. I get 12 miles toward 22 degrees for a 1.6 hour motion now. Don't know how else to measure it. Here's a short animation I made 1445Z and 1625Z images looped with a yellow "X" marking the center. Like I said though, such short-term motions aren't very important, except that it's quite a ways off from the predicted motion.