Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[ROCK]

I agree the "cool" front progged might not even clear our coast. If it does it won't be by much...We might get some lower dew points and a wind shift albeit for a day....

[cycloneye]

A good burst going on near the low.Lets see if DMAX does the job of increasing more the convection in the overnight hours.

[ROCK]

current steering layers.....weaker more west...stronger its going fishing....


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's a bit too far south for this to be taken out to sea. Since it's not strengthening very fast, I would think the models will shift further west soon. If it was already a tropical storm or minimal hurricane, then I think it would tend to go more poleward, doesn't look like that's happening though and it will take 2 to 3 days to become a depression, then look out....

[Gustywind]

Tkanks meso good analysis, there's "chances" in fact to be hit with a less power but reach too....we will see tkanks a lot Meso! Too early to confirmed in fact, i continue to monitor this system as usual!

[ROCK]

I think it's a bit too far south for this to be taken out to sea. Since it's not strengthening very fast, I would think the models will shift further west soon. If it was already a tropical storm or minimal hurricane, then I think it would tend to go more poleward, doesn't look like that's happening though and it will take 2 to 3 days to become a depression, then look out....

you might be right....until we get better consolidation this could be a low runner ala Dean / Felix.....

[BigA]

you might be right....until we get better consolidation this could be a low runner ala Dean / Felix.....

You might be right, but from what I've heard, it looks like there is enough weakness in the high to allow this to move northwest at some point, even if the track shifts back west later. In additon, this is September, and low tracks arent quite as likely during September, with somewhat stronger digging troughs.

[Gustywind]

Tkanks Rock for the site, so after analysis i believe that currents steerings seems weak so we could tkink that before something like a TD in 48h -72h it won't be a fish and churning near once again the Windwards/Leewards Islands?!
If this trend continues very bad news in the heart of the season for all caribbean people!!!

[Sanibel]

in terms of Felix do you mean in the way that once it first developed decent convection it took a while?

Correct. I'm not sure where the center is consolidating? We probably need to wait a few days. If it forms we'll see if we get 3 low-trackers in a row (unlikely).

[Buck]

If this were to develope and threaten somewhere, I'd much rather it threaten the US than anywhere else... we can handle it alot better than most places can right now.

[jlauderdal]

If this were to develope and threaten somewhere, I'd much rather it threaten the US than anywhere else... we can handle it alot better than most places can right now.

You really think the USA has proven to do well with natural disasters. PM me and I will be happy to discuss it further. Fema, fraud, residents not prepared, etc.

[Gustywind]

Sanibel wrote:Correct. I'm not sure where the center is consolidating? We probably need to wait a few days. If it forms we'll see if we get 3 low-trackers in a row (unlikely).
Yeah that's very unusual i prefer say Sanibel, all the options are possible given the current trend, mother nature is so versatile, but hope too that it won't be a low tracker , carib have faced to two canes, that's so many troubles for only the beginning of the season....
No matter Sanibel !

[Gustywind]

jlauderdal wrote: You really think the USA has proven to do well with natural disasters. PM me and I will be happy to discuss it further. Fema, fraud, residents not prepared, etc.

Absolutely jlauderdal, agree with you i don't live in US , but i tkink that with my whole humility...no country is fully well prepared to face a natural disaster, each year, month ,day...mother Nature gave us signs of our weakness, it seems for me a little utopic to believe that... in spite off all the improvement in terms of forecasting features....Hope we should try to be more realistic and put our proud away from our utopics dreams sometimes dangerous...

[ROCK]

in terms of Felix do you mean in the way that once it first developed decent convection it took a while?

Correct. I'm not sure where the center is consolidating? We probably need to wait a few days. If it forms we'll see if we get 3 low-trackers in a row (unlikely).

I thought 2 cat5's hitting MX and Nicar was unlikely.... but your right 3 low trackers would be odd....

[perk]

If this were to develope and threaten somewhere, I'd much rather it threaten the US than anywhere else... we can handle it alot better than most places can right now.

You really think the USA has proven to do well with natural disasters. PM me and I will be happy to discuss it further. Fema, fraud, residents not prepared, etc.

I agree, residents seem to have a very short memory. Case and point in early June i attended a local hurricane preparedness seminar. The building seated probably a couple hundred people.There were representatives from the NWS, our local office of emergency management, and numerous other state and local agengies. Only about 50 people showed up. I over heard one of the guest speakers tell another that after all the caos that ensued during the days leading up to Rita he thought there would have been standing room only.

[RL3AO]

Sanibel wrote:Correct. I'm not sure where the center is consolidating? We probably need to wait a few days. If it forms we'll see if we get 3 low-trackers in a row (unlikely).
Yeah that's very unusual i prefer say Sanibel, all the options are possible given the current trend, mother nature is so versatile, but hope too that it won't be a low tracker , carib have faced to two canes, that's so many troubles for only the beginning of the season....
No matter Sanibel !

The U.S. can handle disasters better than a Haiti or Honduras. But the U.S. will never be able to handle them as well as a U.K. or France or Germany. The main reason why I think that is because the U.S. is so HUGE. A big disaster in France or the U.K. that happens once ever 3 or 4 months seems to happen every week in the U.S. It is easier for a government to handle a 250 million+ dollar disaster 3 times per year than 40 to 50 times per year.

[ROCK]

Tkanks Rock for the site, so after analysis i believe that currents steerings seems weak so we could tkink that before something like a TD in 48h -72h it won't be a fish and churning near once again the Windwards/Leewards Islands?!
If this trend continues very bad news in the heart of the season for all caribbean people!!!

basically if it stays an open wave and south enough it will be steered by the low level flow.....IMO, it will have to pass the weakness before it organizes (if)......if an LLC forms before and deepens, its off to la la land....

[canegrl04]

If this were to develope and threaten somewhere, I'd much rather it threaten the US than anywhere else... we can handle it alot better than most places can right now.

I don't wish this to be a US landing hurricane,but I think the people of Central America have suffered enough already this season.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
CELLS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 31.5W AND 32.5W. WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES IN CELLS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

$$
MT


8 PM Discussion from TPC.

[Gustywind]

RL3A0 wrote:

"theU.S. can handle disasters better than a Haiti or Honduras. But the U.S. will never be able to handle them as well as a U.K. or France or Germany. The main reason why I think that is because the U.S. is so HUGE. A big disaster in France or the U.K. that happens once ever 3 or 4 months seems to happen every week in the U.S. It is easier for a government to handle a 250 million+ dollar disaster 3 times per year than 40 to 50 times per year"

Absolutely agree with you, correct!
Good analysis, pretty interresting, some contry don't have this option to handle frequently this amazing money!!!
lool, that's reality no doubts about it!