Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[ronjon]

At this point the best intensity forecast is based on current observations - and that is pointing strongly to deepening. Too bad that buoy 250 nm SE of Hatteras is out of service. It would provide valuable information now before recon gets there. I did notice the near shore buoys are all now reporting 20-25 kts sustained winds with falling barometers. First rainband not far off outer banks.

[RL3AO]

I don't want to bring up the "H" word, but people on the OBX are probably expecting some wind and rain, not 60+ mph winds.

[cpdaman]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

center is now appearing on radar

lets see if se side of center can develop

[Three Blind Mice]

Not sure if it is just a wobble or what but appears G is west of NHC track if heaviest convection is over LLC.

[brunota2003]

From 8 pm:

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

Does that mean they are thinking a more westward track is possible?

[Thunder44]

The NHC on 8pm Advisory put the center on the SE edge of the convection. But it looks futher north than that on satellite and radar imagery. We won't able find out for sure until recon gets in there:

[storms in NC]

From 8 pm:

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

Does that mean they are thinking a more westward track is possible?

Look it is NC tell me one storm do what NHC said it would do?

I just want some rain to run these snakes off. Oh it makes my skin crawl thinking about it. It is very dry here people. when leaves on trees are dieing that is bad.. News have me in the good amount of rain. But we will see.

I think it can ggo more west or even stright west. Is it? NO! Going to come on land just north of Morehead City

[Three Blind Mice]

Not sure she has hit the true Gulfstream yet. At 9mph and perhaps slowing down this makes for an interesting evening.....

[Brent]

Hmmmmm... This is suddenly interesting *shock*

I've got to stop declaring these storms dead.

[ronjon]

Long range radar showing intense reds around the western semi-circle of the center (and this approx 200 miles away) - spiral bands now forming to the north of the heavy convective mass. Movement over the last hour or so looks to be NW.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[storms in NC]

Not sure she has hit the true Gulfstream yet. At 9mph and perhaps slowing down this makes for an interesting evening.....

Maybe slowing for that turn North NorthEast

[cpdaman]

At this point the best intensity forecast is based on current observations - and that is pointing strongly to deepening. Too bad that buoy 250 nm SE of Hatteras is out of service. It would provide valuable information now before recon gets there. I did notice the near shore buoys are all now reporting 20-25 kts sustained winds with falling barometers. First rainband not far off outer banks.

i'm sorry but it is utterly irresponsible that this bouy is still out of service along with the one south of charleston which has been out of service for over 4 months and will be fixed "when it can be worked into the schedule" pathetic

i'm sorry but there is no reasonable excuse for that and if there is let me know.

[RL3AO]

The dark oranges and a few reds are showing up on the avn image.

[OuterBanker]

Just came back from dinner (first bday dinner, tommorow's my bday) and saw the first towering cumulus off in the distance from the south. Wow, looks like Gabby has improved a bit, and we might get some of that rain (no winds over 45 please, I don't want to have to pick up the yard).

[emeraldislencguy]

I live at emerald isle and ost folks have taken this storm for granted--the last few satellite pics show a storm that is getting better organized--dos anyone think that it could be a cane by the am--I remember how Bertha itensified once it reached the gulf stram--your thoughts PLEASE!!!!!!

[philnyc]

Just came back from dinner (first bday dinner, tommorow's my bday) and saw the first towering cumulus off in the distance from the south. Wow, looks like Gabby has improved a bit, and we might get some of that rain (no winds over 45 please, I don't want to have to pick up the yard).

Happy Birthday!

[OuterBanker]

17th anniversary of my 39th bday.

[Brent]

I live at emerald isle and ost folks have taken this storm for granted--the last few satellite pics show a storm that is getting better organized--dos anyone think that it could be a cane by the am--I remember how Bertha itensified once it reached the gulf stram--your thoughts PLEASE!!!!!!

It's possible but I don't think likely.

But then again 2 hours ago I wondered if it would make it to the coast at all as a TS, so we'll see.

[philnyc]

I live at emerald isle and ost folks have taken this storm for granted--the last few satellite pics show a storm that is getting better organized--dos anyone think that it could be a cane by the am--I remember how Bertha itensified once it reached the gulf stram--your thoughts PLEASE!!!!!!

No models are calling for it. And no humans either. But it has slowed down and is getting over the Gulf Stream. It's not likely but not out of the question.

[OuterBanker]

BTW, what is the address of chat? Link here doesn't work. Haven't been there because of the broken link and don't have new address.