Post-90L: Computer Models

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HURAKAN
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Post-90L: Computer Models

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:29 pm

Image

551
WHXX01 KWBC 090322
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0322 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070909 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 0000 070909 1200 070910 0000 070910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 86.5W 24.1N 88.2W 24.8N 90.0W 25.7N 92.1W
BAMD 23.5N 86.5W 23.5N 87.8W 23.8N 89.5W 24.3N 91.3W
BAMM 23.5N 86.5W 23.9N 88.0W 24.3N 89.8W 24.9N 91.8W
LBAR 23.5N 86.5W 23.6N 87.6W 24.4N 89.0W 25.2N 90.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 0000 070912 0000 070913 0000 070914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.4N 93.9W 27.3N 96.4W 27.6N 97.7W 28.5N 99.1W
BAMD 24.9N 93.3W 25.9N 96.2W 27.3N 97.1W 31.2N 93.2W
BAMM 25.7N 93.7W 26.7N 96.4W 27.7N 97.1W 29.8N 96.1W
LBAR 26.4N 92.0W 29.2N 93.4W 33.1N 90.1W 39.8N 79.5W
SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 61KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 23.5N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 23.5N LONM24 = 85.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

SEPTEMBER: THE MONTH IN WHICH ANYTHING GOES!!!
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Re: Invest 90L (ATL): Global & BAM Models

#2 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:27 pm

NAM (yes I know its the NAM ) wants to bring a 1008 low into mid-texas at 84hrs......
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Re: Invest 90L (ATL): Global & BAM Models

#3 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:26 am

The models have it as a minimal hurricane in 4 days. Assuming Invest 90L gets better organized, it will be TD8 and perhaps Humberto.
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Re: Invest 90L (ATL): Global & BAM Models

#4 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 09, 2007 6:55 am

aroughleague1209 wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:The models have it as a minimal hurricane in 4 days. Assuming Invest 90L gets better organized, it will be TD8 and perhaps Humberto.

ROFL, out of all the worthy disturbances out there in the tropical atlantic this one gets declared first. I doubt it even becomes a TD/TS. Hurricane? LOL, are you looking at the CMC (Crack and Meth Computer model) and NAM (Never right Always wrong Model)


Actually there have been times each has been right. Further, you don't just look at one, you look for a consensus.
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Re: Invest 90L (ATL): Global & BAM Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:45 pm

815
WHXX01 KWBC 091955
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1955 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070909 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1800 070910 0600 070910 1800 070911 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.0N 89.0W 24.7N 90.9W 25.5N 92.7W 26.2N 94.4W
BAMD 24.0N 89.0W 24.5N 90.7W 25.2N 92.6W 26.0N 94.2W
BAMM 24.0N 89.0W 24.4N 90.9W 25.0N 92.9W 25.7N 94.6W
LBAR 24.0N 89.0W 24.3N 90.9W 25.0N 93.1W 25.9N 95.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1800 070912 1800 070913 1800 070914 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.6N 95.4W 26.7N 96.8W 27.3N 98.0W 27.9N 99.3W
BAMD 26.7N 95.4W 27.9N 95.9W 30.6N 93.1W 34.6N 88.5W
BAMM 26.1N 95.6W 26.5N 96.2W 27.4N 95.1W 28.3N 93.2W
LBAR 26.7N 96.9W 28.3N 98.6W 31.5N 96.8W 38.4N 89.1W
SHIP 48KTS 63KTS 73KTS 79KTS
DSHP 48KTS 63KTS 73KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 89.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 87.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 23.5N LONM24 = 86.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Came out late.

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#6 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 09, 2007 4:47 pm

strange to see the SHIPS models trying to strengthen this disorganized mess into a 79 knot hurricane. That would be an amazing sight were it to actually unfold!
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Re: 90L: Global & BAM Models

#7 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 09, 2007 5:02 pm

GFS on this run seems to pull the deepest moisture into AL,MS,FL...48hrs
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Re: 90L: Global & BAM Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2007 7:58 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 100057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070910 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070910 0000 070910 1200 070911 0000 070911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 90.1W 25.1N 91.9W 25.8N 93.4W 26.6N 94.7W
BAMD 24.1N 90.1W 24.6N 92.1W 25.3N 94.0W 26.0N 95.5W
BAMM 24.1N 90.1W 24.6N 92.0W 25.3N 93.9W 26.0N 95.4W
LBAR 24.1N 90.1W 24.5N 92.4W 25.4N 94.6W 26.3N 96.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070912 0000 070913 0000 070914 0000 070915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.7N 95.5W 27.0N 96.7W 28.4N 97.1W 29.0N 97.9W
BAMD 26.6N 96.6W 28.0N 96.8W 30.8N 93.0W 34.3N 86.7W
BAMM 26.4N 96.7W 27.3N 98.1W 29.1N 97.2W 29.6N 96.3W
LBAR 27.0N 98.2W 29.0N 99.2W 32.9N 96.0W 40.7N 84.4W
SHIP 47KTS 61KTS 66KTS 68KTS
DSHP 47KTS 33KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 90.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 23.9N LONM12 = 88.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.5N LONM24 = 86.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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