Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would put the center near 9 north/33 west near the deep convection. More deserving then 90L.

[HURAKAN]

twd 205:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A RATHER ILL DEFINED 1012 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS A MEAN
CENTER OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING THAT HAS AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ENE FROM 7N43W TO NEAR 14N20W.
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS TO THE W OF
THE AXIS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 31W-36W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Zardoz]

I would put the center near 9 north/33 west near the deep convection.

Are we now seeing a little circ trying to start up at those coordinates?

Central Atlantic Rainbow

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I've been seeing that. Maybe a MLC forming near 9.5 north/33 west...Moving westward. Things are not to unfavorable as far as I can tell.

[KWT]

Looks like its going to stay far enough south to avoid recurving through the weakness and the models have slowly eased off the strength of that weakness as well over the last 4-6 runs, as per normal with the models it seems!

This could be a really interesting system to watch, Dean developed pretty close to where this system is right now however I doubt the track wil lbe quite as far south as that system simply because there are more weaknesses in the high pressure belt then this time a month ago. given this I wouldn't be all that surprised to see this system being with us for a very long time, as the others have said if this develops it'll likely be one of those extremely long trackers...as for the Caribbean/USA, to early to tell but I'm guessing less chance of a Caribbean hit then withthe previous major systems but obviously this system is still quite far south at the moment so keep an eye on it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Next to GABBY this is by far the most interesting system of the whole Atlatic. For one it has a broad LLC near 9.8 north/34 west...It has a broad area of moisture and ok shear. The convection has developed close to it over the last few hours. I really doubt that the weakness will form strong enough to pull it out before it makes 50 west. In fact if this keeps up we could have another low rider.

[Nimbus]

It is pretty much the peak of the season so SST's are warmer and any wave that has convection and a mid level rotation could develop pretty far east. I'm thinking the big islands might need to watch this especially if the wave to the west develops.

[cycloneye]

Floater 2 is now with this wave.A sign that NRL will tag invest 91L later today.

[MortisFL]

This one definitely has my eye.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A RATHER ILL DEFINED 1011 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
MONSOON-LIKE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N17W TO 6N41W. THERE ARE A FEW SWIRLS NOTED ALONG THIS
TROUGHING THAT IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN ANY ONE LOW
CENTER...AND THE WAVE AXIS ITSELF FOR THAT MATTER. HOWEVER...THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SITUATED CLOSER TO THE ANALYZED
LOW/WAVE AXIS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE NOW FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
31W-37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Pressure downed to 1011hpa, getting more organized, we should see maybe an invest later today or tommorow

[OURAGAN]

We are three people from Guadeloupe on this board now:Gustywind, Huc, Ouragan.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Gustywind]

HI Ouragan!!!! yeah that's great OURAGAN!!! Nice to see you here be welcomed too this morning!

[HollynLA]

OFFICIALLY 91L.

Where are you getting this?

[Gustywind]

aroughleague1209 wrote: OFFICIALLY 91L.

Where do you have this information, which site please?

[Gustywind]

That's seems very suspicious the latest discussion of the NHC has been issued..nothing more than wave/low but not an invest! WHERE DO YOU GET THIS PLEASE????

[OURAGAN]

It is an invest on floater 2 now, not on the NRL SITE yet.

[Typhoon_Willie]

What usually happens is the Hurricane Center assigns the floater to a developing system that will be the invest... The Hurricane Center decides on what disturbance is an invest and what is not and then informs various government sites like the NRL about the status of said systems.

[cycloneye]

It will be a matter of time that a invest tag will be with this.The number is not known because there is that other wave near the Leewards that may get invest too.

[HURAKAN]

Latest: