Post made by Katdaddy on another board....

[Guest]

Increase GOM Convection by Kat Daddy The GOM will become quite interesting as the Caribbean tropical wave interacts with the early season front. Here is what the Corpus Christi forecast discussion is saying about the GOM

TROPICS...3 DAY LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
APCHG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR CANCUN. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS BREAKS THE SYSTEM IN TWO MERGING
ONE PIECE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST ON
MON...WHILE LEAVING A BROAD LOW OVER THE NW GULF. THE CANADIAN AND
ECMWF BRING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BY TUE. NEVER THE
LESS...CONVECTION WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND POPS SLGT CHC/CHC FOR TUE/WED
RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.



Looks like NWS is watching.....and these guys are the professionals.

Patricia

[Rainband]

I hope you guys get this..whatever it turns into..or doesn't........... RAIN is one thing we need no more of for a while...Unfortunately..it's too early to say exactly where and what will occur...I hear if this doesn't develop..it will track west!!! Good LUCK!!!!!

[JetMaxx]

I just have a bad feeling before this system is all said and done, some area between Texas and Florida is going to get a whole lot of heavy rain they don't need.

[PTrackerLA]

We have lots of convection near Cancun this morning, but not much organization. We'll see what happens when it gets in the BOC.

[Colin]

I just have a bad feeling before this system is all said and done, some area between Texas and Florida is going to get a whole lot of heavy rain they don't need.

Unfortunately, I completely agree...

[ColdFront77]

I wouldn't think it is possible for this disturbance to make it to Texas or Louisiana... the surface cold front is already along the Texas coast.

[vbhoutex]

I wouldn't think it is possible for this disturbance to make it to Texas or Louisiana... the surface cold front is already along the Texas coast.

Can we say cut-off low? Can we say sit back and wait for the not very strong front to "wash-out" and pull away and sneak in behind it? This system is not moving quickly at all. And if the split as progged happens then this becomes even more plausible as a possibility. Models have been hinting at this for 2 days now as far as a possible late week TX coast hit by some sort of low pressure system depending on which one you take as gospel(I don't take any as gospel myself).

Sorry if this sounds snooty, it wasn't meant to. Just pointing out some possibilities. And no, as much as we need rain in SE TX, we do not need a tropical system dropping copius amounts of rain in a short period. A long slow rain would be much better thank you.

[Stormsfury]

I thought about this all day at work, especially this morning ... thinking the energy would split into two pieces as well. I talked to a couple of co-workers about this this morning when they were asking me about the weekend forecast ... the ECMWF showed this last night, but darn those 24 hour increments ...