Wave E of the Leewards

[Vortex]

12Z NAM Loop.....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[windstorm99]

I already here a promet saying the NAM is garbage which i tend to agree with.

[x-y-no]

yeah gator starting to get it's act together.....and how about those gators huh?

I figured they crushed Troy -- I'll really be watching when they play the Vols...

Anybody else in South Florida starting to wonder how this system will impact us...?

Yeah ... I'm keeping half an eye on it. I don't believe it has an LLC yet, but the wave is more sharply defined this morning and the convection is in the right area to assist development.

Ridging is going to build in over it as the trough to the north lifts out so I don't think it gains much latitude in the next couple of days.

[Vortex]

note..DO NOT USE NAM as if were a hurricane model...but understand the synoptics at play in combination of the time of year to draw your conclusions..

[windstorm99]

I still want to see a little more persistence from this system....

[ronjon]

Uggh...I'm getting sick and tired of it being so dry
hardly a drop of rain since early august.

I'm also getting sick and tired of all
these disturbances missing me.
(I just want tropical storms, NOT hurricanes).

I hope this becomes a tropical storm and
crosses the FL peninsula just to give us
the rain we need.
And then the cold front pushes it northeastward
towards the carolinas as a heavy rain event...that
would be AWESOME! Both florida and the
carolinas would get their much needed rain.
I mean seriously, we have had no rainy season
this year.

TBH, I know what you mean - a dry summer with no easterly flow to speak of. However, starting today and lasting through Tuesday there will be a big surge of moisture from that inverted trough just south of the state. NWS Ruskin in their AFD says 2-4 inches with some locally higher amounts over the next 2 to 3 days. Plus if this system moves over the state on Thursday or Friday we may actually be above normal for one month this summer.

[Blown Away]

Boy what a classic set up for SFL. Disturbed weather just east of the islands, likely to pass through the Heburt Box, skim across the top of PR & Hispanola into SE Bahamas. If it develops it could be trouble. Looks elongated. I would love to hear a pro give analysis of this. Sorry couldn't help myself, Hebert

[Vortex]

Based on 1445 utc imagery it appears that an MLC/LLC continues to become more pronounced near 17N/57.5W or about 150 miles ENE of Guadeloupe...

[windstorm99]

Infrared close-up shot...

[gatorcane]

Yes South Floridians will know that the deep easterly flow regime has come back...about 1 week ago. It nows seems like summer more than ever. When that happens we look out to the east for anything that comes in from that flow......

But for a while this summer the easterly flow was completely dead.

[wzrgirl1]

When does the next TWO come out?

[gatorcane]

this will almost surely be mentioned this TWO.....

[windstorm99]

When does the next TWO come out?

should be out in the next 10-15min

[hial2]

Uggh...I'm getting sick and tired of it being so dry
hardly a drop of rain since early august.

I'm also getting sick and tired of all
these disturbances missing me.
(I just want tropical storms, NOT hurricanes).

I hope this becomes a tropical storm and
crosses the FL peninsula just to give us
the rain we need.
And then the cold front pushes it northeastward
towards the carolinas as a heavy rain event...that
would be AWESOME! Both florida and the
carolinas would get their much needed rain.
I mean seriously, we have had no rainy season
this year.

Lake O is still 4 feet below normal level for this time of year...if something drastic doesn't happen before the start of the dry season,Florida is in deep,deep trouble..and so are the Carolinas..seems I brought the drought with me!..
I just hope a hurricane is not the solution for either one..

[windstorm99]

this will almost surely be mentioned this TWO.....

Iam also expecting some kind of mention in the two also.

[Vortex]

I expect Invest by this evening...continues to improve an overall organization..given the current trends should take on a more circular look in a few hours with outflow expaning in most quads as the upper-air environment continues to improve...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Uggh...I'm getting sick and tired of it being so dry
hardly a drop of rain since early august.

I'm also getting sick and tired of all
these disturbances missing me.
(I just want tropical storms, NOT hurricanes).

I hope this becomes a tropical storm and
crosses the FL peninsula just to give us
the rain we need.
And then the cold front pushes it northeastward
towards the carolinas as a heavy rain event...that
would be AWESOME! Both florida and the
carolinas would get their much needed rain.
I mean seriously, we have had no rainy season
this year.

TBH, I know what you mean - a dry summer with no easterly flow to speak of. However, starting today and lasting through Tuesday there will be a big surge of moisture from that inverted trough just south of the state. NWS Ruskin in their AFD says 2-4 inches with some locally higher amounts over the next 2 to 3 days. Plus if this system moves over the state on Thursday or Friday we may actually be above normal for one month this summer.

Thank you ronjon! Hopefully this surge of moisture does give
us rain, because the last couple times it was forecast it
all missed me...hopefully some nice rain will come.


And then this disturbance could really crank up
over the favorable conditions. With a ridge to the
north expected, it looks like this disturbance
might along with todays surge of moisture
help fill lake ockeechoobee and kill the drought
once and for all.

But of course I hope and pray that the highest
it goes is a weak tropical storm, not a hurricane

[windstorm99]

I expect Invest by this evening...continues to improve an overall organization..given the current trends should take on a more circular look in a few hours with outflow expaning in most quads as the upper-air environment continues to improve...

Boy if we get an invest out of this one and the models point at south florida all hell will brake loose on S2K.

[Gustywind]

Latest from meteo-france 11am:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

The main activity of the big bulk of convection continues to pop but seems elongated, whereas the second little cloud mass convective has lost activity near Guadeloupe since 2 hours!

[HURAKAN]

TWO 1130:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND
IT COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.