Long-Term Model Runs

[cycloneye]

6z GFS Loop

Mark Sudduth,you may want to look at this 6z GFS loop.

[Stephanie]

OMG Luis!

I know we're talking over two weeks with that run but that's REALLY scary!

[BensonTCwatcher]

NOT wanting THAT to end the drought. ..taking comfort in the fact it's that far out.

[Meso]

Large System that

[Extremeweatherguy]

It seems a bit odd to me that the GFS has the storm moving west under the ridge, and then suddenly after 180 hours it breaks the ridge and the storm starts moving more north and out to sea. Didn't the GFS do the same thing in the early stages of Dean too? I think it did, and we all know how that turned out. It just seems to me that this season's storms are more south and west biased, and I believe that we will probably see more of the same with this new potential system (meaning no significant northward motion until 50-55W at the earliest). This is just speculation though, and I could be completely wrong.

[Meso]

Yeah. Looks quite similar to Dean's early GFS runs actually.. If we start seeing some TX hits it will REALLY be like Dean's runs. We've already had a Fish,East Coast and FL with this so far I think

[storms in NC]

:eek: NOT wanting THAT to end the drought. ..taking comfort in the fact it's that far out.

Now we know this run is on drugs. We may need the rain but not that. Now it has been many a year since the last cat4 to the NC and hope it will be a lot longer.IMO

[Opal storm]

It seems a bit odd to me that the GFS has the storm moving west under the ridge, and then suddenly after 180 hours it breaks the ridge and the storm starts moving more north and out to sea. Didn't the GFS do the same thing in the early stages of Dean too? I think it did, and we all know how that turned out. It just seems to me that this season's storms are more south and west biased, and I believe that we will probably see more of the same with this new potential system (meaning no significant northward motion until 50-55W at the earliest). This is just speculation though, and I could be completely wrong.

I'm afraid that sooner or later that ridge will break down, and one of those suckers is going to threaten the SE US.

[Brent]

It seems a bit odd to me that the GFS has the storm moving west under the ridge, and then suddenly after 180 hours it breaks the ridge and the storm starts moving more north and out to sea. Didn't the GFS do the same thing in the early stages of Dean too? I think it did, and we all know how that turned out. It just seems to me that this season's storms are more south and west biased, and I believe that we will probably see more of the same with this new potential system (meaning no significant northward motion until 50-55W at the earliest). This is just speculation though, and I could be completely wrong.

I'm afraid that sooner or later that ridge will break down, and one of those suckers is going to threaten the SE US.

Agreed... this is the month when troughs start coming south and ridges break. If we don't get a hurricane threat I'll be very surprised.

[KWT]

Note the 180hrs mark is where the GFS resolution decreases a lot so it probably loses the true power of the ridge at that point, its also why the models sometimes opens up tropical systems to open waves again past that point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It seems a bit odd to me that the GFS has the storm moving west under the ridge, and then suddenly after 180 hours it breaks the ridge and the storm starts moving more north and out to sea. Didn't the GFS do the same thing in the early stages of Dean too? I think it did, and we all know how that turned out. It just seems to me that this season's storms are more south and west biased, and I believe that we will probably see more of the same with this new potential system (meaning no significant northward motion until 50-55W at the earliest). This is just speculation though, and I could be completely wrong.

I'm afraid that sooner or later that ridge will break down, and one of those suckers is going to threaten the SE US.

Oh yeah, I agree with that for sure. However, I don't believe that we will see multiple fish storms anytime soon (which is what the GFS showed in the 12z run). Looks like the GOM and the SE U.S. might face the highest threat potential over the next few weeks.

[Meso]

[Meso]

12z GFS @ 384 Hours

[Meso]

Here is something new,the EURO picking up on a system and not the others.Or maybe it's just moving it in a different area (although this run is longer than the other models go).Perhaps a pro-met or someone with the proper EURO application could point out which wave this is developing from.

[cycloneye]

384 hours

GFS at 6z shows various lows in different areas that develop but not very strong.

[Meso]

Probably won't mean much.. Looong time. But 384 Hour brings a low into the gulf and still showing low pressures moving off the African coast

[KWT]

Several systems form on the 06z long range run, we still have the Africa wave, another system forms a little SE of 99L and another weak system forms right at the end heading into the Gulf.

[Meso]

Interesting 144 Hour from the CMC,showing the same as the GFS,another CV system moving off Africa in a few days.Will probably get it's own thread in 3 or 4 days.But for now may as well keep it here

[canetracker]

12 GFS surface at 0 hrs:

12 GFS 500 mb at 0 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

[canetracker]

12 GFS surface at 12 hrs:

12 GFS 500 mb at 12 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif