Long-Term Model Runs

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12 GFS surface at 24 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_024l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 24 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_024l.gif

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12 GFS surface at 36 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_036l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 36 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_036l.gif

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12 GFS surface at 48 hrs:

12 GFS 500 mb at 48 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif
Nice ridge of high pressure over the atlantic

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12 GFS surface at 54 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_054l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 54 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_054l.gif

12 GFS surface at 60 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_060l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 60 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif

12 GFS surface at 66 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_066l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 66 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_066l.gif

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_slp_lu_loop.shtml
So far from the above loop:
PR gets a nice soaking from our area outside the antilles and 91L continues progressing west.

Edited below to include 72 - 96 hrs:
12 GFS surface at 72 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_072l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 72 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

12 GFS surface at 78 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_078l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 78 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_078l.gif

12 GFS surface at 84 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_084l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 84 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

12 GFS surface at 90 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_090l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 60 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

12 GFS surface at 96 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_096l.gif
12 GFS 500 mb at 96 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

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120hr 500 mb seems to show a nice ridge in place over the western atlantic but weakness in the eastern:


132hr 500 mb weakness increases:


Surface loop thru 144 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_slp_lu_loop.shtml

[canetracker]

144 hr 500 mb increases our weakness:


This is a sharp contrast from our present solid ridge seen in the 0 hr link below:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_000l.gif

Edited to include 168hrs:
168 looks like fishy time to me:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_168l.gif
bye bye CV season?

[KWT]

GFS has a habit of overdoing those weaknesses at about 144hrs plus, I wouldn't read to omuch into it, the GFS has really reduced the length and strength of the weaknesses progged over the next 5 days in the central Atlantic.

[canetracker]

Good info KWT. You are correct in that long term GFS is not something to take seriously.

[Meso]

Why what is that in the gulf..

[cycloneye]

6z GFS Loop



Meso,that forms in the Western Caribbean.

[Stormcenter]

6z GFS Loop



Meso,that forms in the Western Caribbean.

Well the good thing about the GOM system is that it will be September 26 and hopefully by the then it will have some cold fronts to contend with.

[storms in NC]

6z GFS Loop

Mark Sudduth,you may want to look at this 6z GFS loop.

What happen to this one POOFED LOL

[flwxwatcher]

While the GFS is not showing any distinct storms in the Gulf, Florida, and Bahamas area in the medium range. Later this week-end into early next week it does show lower pressures in that general region listed above. Maybe it trying to sniff something out. The pattern it shows would be ripe for something to form in that area .. Time will tell

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml

[ronjon]

The GFS has for several runs now been developing a western caribbean storm and moving it northward into the GOM. I know it's more than 10 days out but conditions may be ripe for some sort of development down there - I noticed on todays global runs that the CMC, NOGAPs, and Euro all have low pressure forming in the southern caribbean in about a week.

[flwxwatcher]

The GFS has for several runs now been developing a western caribbean storm and moving it northward into the GOM. I know it's more than 10 days out but conditions may be ripe for some sort of development down there - I noticed on todays global runs that the CMC, NOGAPs, and Euro all have low pressure forming in the southern caribbean in about a week.

Ronjon.. I noticed this as well. The 06Z GFS continues developing Low pressure in the NW Caribbean and bringing it into the Gulf. Like you said its in the longer range but its something to keep an eye at least.

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO shows some possible action along the SE Coast in the Long range.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091112!!/

[flwxwatcher]

The 18Z GFS is also hinting at Low pressure at day 10, pretty much in the same spot as the EURO. Also, High pressure is forecast to be in the WPAC off Japan per the EURO in the short to medium range. Lets see if this teleconnects to rising heights in The NW Atlantic down the road.

18Z GFS 240 HR
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml


12 Z EURO 240 HR

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091112!!/

[ronjon]

12Z EURO shows some possible action along the SE Coast in the Long range.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091112!!/

flwx, I think that is 91L the Euro is moving to the SE US at 10 days. Seems about right given the distance and synoptic setup.

[LarryWx]

Rather than focusing on specifics in the model runs, I'll just say that I'm noticing that the pattern on both the latest GFS and ECMWF is one that imho would be conducive to a potential tropical threat to the SE U.S. coast next week: pretty strong sfc highs over and just offshore the NE U.S. bringing in steady lower level NE winds on many of the days in the SE along with pretty strong upper level ridging in the eastern U.S. not allowing a good opportunity for a trough to sweep anything away. Also, strong high pressure over the NE is often conducive to low pressure forming off the SE coast. So, if this pattern does verify, I feel that either a home grown system could easily form or else a preexisting system could possibly move in from further offshore. I could see a scenario where that preexisting system could be Invest 91L.