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destruction92 wrote:fci wrote:gatorcane wrote:Yeah I'll be watching it closely FCI........
what a surprise for some if this makes it to South Florida. I get the sense that many were thinking we may get off the hook this year...
You know me.
I'm still thinking that we will get off the hook.
I'm an eternal optimist.
At this point, I think it is safe to say that THERE WILL be a weakness in the ridge with the approaching cold front. Another thing safe to say is that next weekend's cold front WILL BE STRONG.
With these 2 factors in place, it is only a question when 92L will be picked up...unlike with Dean and Felix which were never forecast to feel the effects of a weakening ridge and approaching trough.
With this said, I think Floridians have enough evidence to be optimistic.
The Carolinas should be more concerned though.
windstorm99 wrote:Floater added!
miamicanes177 wrote:This forecast is not endorsed by storm2k and should not be used by anyone. Refer to the NHC for the only source of tropical information.
With favorable wind shear and minimal dry air already in place, I give this a 100% chance of becoming a hurricane within the next 5 days. In fact, I would not be surprised to see this become a major hurricane. The trend in 2007 has been west, west, west. Look for this trend to continue with this system and slam into the United States as the first hurricane since Wilma of 2005 to make landfall. This has the potential to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane approaching the USA.
wxman57 wrote:destruction92 wrote:On top of everthing else, 92L looks to be passing north of Hebert Box...so, if this was to affect Florida (unlikely IMO), it would be a central Florida threat...right now though, 92L's convection is on the decrease and who knows, maybe tomorrow our attention will shift to 91L (which could be sucking moisture from 92L).
Note that the corollary to the Hebert Box theory doesn't exist. Paul Hebert found that the majority of major hurricanes that have hit south Florida have passed through this region. However, just because a system misses the box to the north doesn't mean it's not likely to hit south Florida. In this case, there may be a very strong ridge north of the disturbance until it reaches the Bahamas. South Florida is NOT out of the woods by any means, nor is the Gulf.
miamicanes177 wrote:This forecast is not endorsed by storm2k and should not be used by anyone. Refer to the NHC for the only source of tropical information.
With favorable wind shear and minimal dry air already in place, I give this a 100% chance of becoming a hurricane within the next 5 days. In fact, I would not be surprised to see this become a major hurricane. The trend in 2007 has been west, west, west. Look for this trend to continue with this system and slam into the United States as the first hurricane since Wilma of 2005 to make landfall. This has the potential to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane approaching the USA.
Derek Ortt wrote:I'm not as impressed with this disturbance... we need more low levle convergence before this does anything.
I'm watching 91L more closely
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