Post-92L: Computer Models

[HURAKAN]

Let them run here.

[cycloneye]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1553 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1200 070910 0000 070910 1200 070911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 60.0W 19.2N 63.2W 20.3N 66.3W
BAMD 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 59.3W 19.4N 61.7W 20.4N 64.2W
BAMM 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 59.7W 19.1N 62.5W 20.1N 65.4W
LBAR 17.5N 57.0W 18.1N 59.1W 19.1N 61.6W 20.0N 64.1W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1200 070912 1200 070913 1200 070914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 69.6W 24.1N 74.7W 26.9N 78.1W 29.6N 80.2W
BAMD 21.5N 66.5W 23.5N 70.6W 25.0N 73.9W 25.6N 77.1W
BAMM 21.0N 68.3W 23.2N 73.5W 25.5N 77.5W 27.6N 80.2W
LBAR 20.9N 66.4W 24.0N 70.0W 26.4N 71.8W 27.2N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 60KTS 72KTS 80KTS
DSHP 46KTS 60KTS 72KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

[HURAKAN]

VERY INTERESTING WEEK AHEAD!!!

[Meso]

[Sanibel]

If Gabrielle moves back offshore and strengthens it will pull 92L up (if it develops).

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 091923
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1923 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070909 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1800 070910 0600 070910 1800 070911 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 57.0W 19.6N 59.6W 20.8N 62.5W 22.0N 65.3W
BAMD 18.7N 57.0W 19.6N 59.3W 20.7N 61.7W 21.7N 63.8W
BAMM 18.7N 57.0W 19.6N 59.5W 20.6N 62.1W 21.6N 64.6W
LBAR 18.7N 57.0W 19.5N 58.7W 20.7N 60.6W 21.8N 62.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1800 070912 1800 070913 1800 070914 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 68.2W 26.2N 72.9W 29.1N 75.9W 31.9N 77.9W
BAMD 22.6N 65.8W 24.0N 69.1W 24.3N 72.0W 24.0N 75.5W
BAMM 22.5N 67.1W 24.5N 71.5W 26.4N 75.1W 27.9N 78.4W
LBAR 23.1N 63.8W 25.5N 65.2W 26.1N 65.7W 24.8N 68.8W
SHIP 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 55.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Vortex]

Based on the given/forecasted synoptics BAMD should be given the most credibility

[Vortex]

The models are also indicating that at the end of the run ridging will be strong enough to push the system w or even wsw...This is the most important point IMO indicated in the 18z run

[southerngale]

Please upload images from that site before posting, as many of us can't view that site for some reason.

All we see is this:

Image

Thanks!




Edit: Thanks, Chad! Hopefully, others will do the same from now on.

[KWT]

Of course don;t the bams simply extrap the system based othe current synoptic set-up, I'm pretty sure the track won't look like that after 72hrs simply because of the weakness that is forecasted to form because of the frontal system.

[Vortex]

Convection continues to wane this afternoon as expected...More importantly 92 has developed an anticyclone aloft and re-firing of convection in a few hours may bring about the MLC to the surface...

[chadtm80]

Please upload images from that site before posting, as many of us can't view that site for some reason.

All we see is this:

Image

Thanks!

[Vortex]

Pressures at buoy 41100 about 120NM due S of system have been falling...


Conditions at 41100 as of
2100 GMT on 09/09/2007: Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 89.6 °F

09 09 2000 ENE 17.1 - 4.9 6 - - 29.91 -0.04 81.9 - 76.6 - - -
09 09 1900 ENE 14.0 - 4.6 6 - - 29.91 -0.06 82.0 - 76.5 - - -
09 09 1800 E 14.0 - 4.9 6 - - 29.94 -0.05 81.7 - 76.8 - - -
09 09 1700 E 14.0 - 5.6 6 - - 29.95 -0.04 82.4 - 77.4 - - -
09 09 1600 E 15.9 - 5.2 6 - - 29.97 -0.01 82.0 - 76.8 - - -
09 09 1500 E 15.0 - 4.9 6 - - 29.98 +0.01 82.2 - 76.8

[Vortex]

Global models continue to strengthen the high north of 92 and I wouldn't be surprised if 92 gets pushed wsw over the next day or so and passes over PR..

[Vortex]

18Z rolling in..

GFS brings the wave and deepest moisture right over PR..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

[ROCK]

54hrs.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml

[ROCK]

78 hrs......


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml


the system seems to take a trip into PR and Hisp.....if that happens won't be much left.......

notice the first front progged for Tuesday washes out at the coast....

[Meso]

Southerngale : The reason I don't upload to another site is simply because then every time a new model is updated and added you need to upload a new image so you sit with stacks of images.And I know I don't have the bandwidth to waste on such with a 3 gig cap.And if someone sees "image" you can just right click on the word image and go "view image".

[southerngale]

Southerngale : The reason I don't upload to another site is simply because then every time a new model is updated and added you need to upload a new image so you sit with stacks of images.And I know I don't have the bandwidth to waste on such with a 3 gig cap.And if someone sees "image" you can just right click on the word image and go "view image".

Well, you could delete them off your computer after they've been uploaded.

And no, I can't just right click on the word image and view it. The site doesn't work for me (as well as some others... seems to mostly affect Texans, but not all Texans and some from other states as well...it's strange). I have the link... it just won't open. I get the message you would get if the site didn't exist at all... with both Firefox and IE, and on all my computers. It's a pain in the butt, but a quick upload through Imageshack solves the problem for all of us. Plus, when new model runs come out, you can compare it to the old ones with just a quick glance. By hotlinking, it changes the image every time it's posted within the thread.

But if it's too much trouble, don't worry about it. Hopefully, someone will take a minute to do it. If not, I'll just keep on looking at several other model maps to see all the ones posted on that graphic.

I had no problems viewing the site last year, so I don't know what the problem is this year, but it's quite annoying.

[Cyclone1]

I wouldn't put too much confidence in the models right now. 92L doesn't even have an LLC (looks more like a MLC).