Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[crownweather]

Out of curiousity, how accurate is the SHIPS intensity shear forecast?? Weblink I use is ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
SHIPS seems to be forecasting stronger shear with 92-L with the 18Z run than what it forecasted with the 12Z run.

Thanks!!

[Vortex]

noticed the same crown..globals seem to indicate a rather favorable environment for strengthening..looking forward to the 00z runs..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cold front-NO! Ridge NO! COld front NO! Ridge NO!!!


OHHHH GOSSSHHH I am going to go insane
I can't take this any more. My sanity is gone!

[Typhoon_Willie]

I beleive it has been mentioned that the cold fromt may very well not pick this up...

[destruction92]

Guys what is supposed to happen? Will the ridge
build strong and make FL threatened by 92L?
Or will the cold front sweep it out??? I'm sorry
but what does everyone think. It's so confusing.
SOmebody says ridge. ANotehr says cold front

First off, let me say WOW! You have managed to include 90L, 91L, and 92L along with a ridge, trough, and cold front all in one heck of a paragraphed comment...what is even more scary is that you placed all of these factors into perfect relevance and context of one another. I must admit that I am officially confused as of this moment. If I do not get an informed opinion about what Tampa Bay Hurricane has discussed, think I may need to go to talkin' tropics rehab if this keeps up.

[Vortex]

18z NAM Florida bound..If the pattern set-up indicated by NAM verifies(well-established ridge) this system will cross the southern FL peninsula before turning NW/N towards the central/east gulfcoast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[destruction92]

18z NAM Florida bound..If the pattern set-up indicated by NAM verifies(well-established ridge) this system will cross the southern FL peninsula before turning NW/N towards the central/east gulfcoast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It keeps it as an open tropical wave. Nothing to worry about, at least in the perspective of the NAM.

[canegrl04]

18z NAM Florida bound..If the pattern set-up indicated by NAM verifies(well-established ridge) this system will cross the southern FL peninsula before turning NW/N towards the central/east gulfcoast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I guess we would soon find out how prepared NOLA is since katrina

[wxman57]

Out of curiosity, how accurate is the SHIPS intensity shear forecast?? Weblink I use is ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
SHIPS seems to be forecasting stronger shear with 92-L with the 18Z run than what it forecasted with the 12Z run.

Thanks!!

There are a number of problems with the SHIPS shear forecast. First, it requires an accurate forecast of upper-level winds, something that's not easy in a data-sparse region. But one other problem is how the shear is taken into consideration. Shear is examined over a very large area (north to south). High shear in any part of this area would yield a negative indicator for development. This isn't bad for large systems that have a great latitudinal extent, but for smaller systems it can greatly overestimate the shear, yielding intensity forecasts that are way too low. In the case of 92L, it's a small system so what's happening 300 or 600 miles north of the center is meaningless as far as wind shear.

[Blown Away]

There is a nice little spin but almost all the deep convection is gone. If 92L goes north of the Hebert Box I say no go for Florida. 92L maybe setting us up for a let down.

[wxmann_91]

18z NAM Florida bound..If the pattern set-up indicated by NAM verifies(well-established ridge) this system will cross the southern FL peninsula before turning NW/N towards the central/east gulfcoast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I guess we would soon find out how prepared NOLA is since katrina

whoa... calm down with the comparisons to Katrina. This is not a Katrina. Let's not hype.

Actually, I think that if this does not hit Hispaniola, it might have a shot at FL before it rides up the East Coast. There doesn't seem to be much of a threat to the Gulf Coast with this one, IMO.

[CrazyC83]

18z NAM Florida bound..If the pattern set-up indicated by NAM verifies(well-established ridge) this system will cross the southern FL peninsula before turning NW/N towards the central/east gulfcoast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I guess we would soon find out how prepared NOLA is since katrina

whoa... calm down with the comparisons to Katrina. This is not a Katrina. Let's not hype.

Actually, I think that if this does not hit Hispaniola, it might have a shot at FL before it rides up the East Coast. There doesn't seem to be much of a threat to the Gulf Coast with this one, IMO.

At that point in the Atlantic, Katrina was a wave as well...

[Derek Ortt]

Also, SHIPS can indicate high shear when that shear is merely enhancing the outflow. Thus, what SHIPS sees as bad, may be quite beneficial for development (the poster child of this is Wilma)

[Blown Away]

Out of curiosity, how accurate is the SHIPS intensity shear forecast?? Weblink I use is ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
SHIPS seems to be forecasting stronger shear with 92-L with the 18Z run than what it forecasted with the 12Z run.

Thanks!!

There are a number of problems with the SHIPS shear forecast. First, it requires an accurate forecast of upper-level winds, something that's not easy in a data-sparse region. But one other problem is how the shear is taken into consideration. Shear is examined over a very large area (north to south). High shear in any part of this area would yield a negative indicator for development. This isn't bad for large systems that have a great latitudinal extent, but for smaller systems it can greatly overestimate the shear, yielding intensity forecasts that are way too low. In the case of 92L, it's a small system so what's happening 300 or 600 miles north of the center is meaningless as far as wind shear.

Ok so what's your take on 92L?

[Ed Mahmoud]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.

Texas is still in season now, but the season does start shutting down as the Wersterlies come back for the Fall, and the first cold front of the year is predicted around Tuesday.

When Rita was approaching this general direction, mi suegro said it wouldn't get here, we'd already had a cold front, and, in fact, it did turn up just before Texas. (Of course, the Western side still did a pretty good job on Beaumont/Pt Arthur, and even here in HOU we lost power for a day). October has had a single hurricane, a barely Cat 1 Jerry in 1989, in six decades.

Whereas, IIRC, Borderline Cat2/Cat 3 Hurricane Kate hit Florida in November. A short hurricane season, no state income taxes, no earthquakes, lower tornado per square mile ratio than Oklahoma, Tex-mex food, all part of living in God's Country, Western Hemisphere edition.

Please, everyone, let's get back on topic and start discussing 92L. I myself will get back to topic. Let's not make this a thread about how Texas or any other state for that matter is "overdue" for a hurricane or something.

Given the current synoptics, I am speculating a Carolina impact due to a weakening ridge...I may be wrong though and I admit it. Okay? So please, let's try to have a civil debate here.

I didn't say Texas was overdue. Almost the opposite, while the window isn't completely closed yet, the change to Fall has already begun, and with two fronts forecast into SE Texas in the next 7 days, the window is closing. What I said is, this far out, 92L is a potential threat from Louisiana to the Carolinas, and even the Northeast isn't 100% safe, in my amateur opinion.



12Z GFS 500 mb flow would seem to suggest the East Coast is at greatest risk by next weekend, with flow along the East Coast almost meridonal.

If the 12Z GFS 500 mb forecast is correct, of course.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for the explanations, but

OK I give up. I totally give up. This
is so confusing.

Too confusing:

[Ixolib]

There is absolutely no connection between 1935 and 2007 whatsoever.

Well, now, what do you think these two would have to say about that...

Sorry.... Back to business now.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi cut a special Sunday video for 92L.

The GOMEX system, per JB, could have the upper shear relax just in time, before Texas or Mexico, for a quick Erin type TS development.

OK, he was 30 mb too strong, but he did pick Gabrielle a week before it developed.


I'll post this in 92L thread as well, as while JB says too early to pick landfall, he says conditions will be extremely favorable over the Bahamas when 92L arrives. He thinks it could be big ticket. He didn't discuss EATL monster wave too much, but he seemed to imply yesterday it was also big ticket, and he wasn't at all sure it would recurve.

[crownweather]

Any thoughts on how much this will flare up, based on the current sfc and U/A conditions late tonight into Monday morning during diurnal maximum?? To me shear values look quite favorable ahead of this system, which would lead me to say further development is fairly likely. In addition, dry air looks minimal at worst.