TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[wxman57]

Based on history, what happens between now and 48 W may tell me a lot. IF it becomes a trop. cyclone east of 48 W and IF it has any NW movement east of 48 W, that would be a very strong indication to me that it will never hit the lower 48. Here's why I'm saying this:

There is not a single storm on record since 1851 that moved at 315 degrees or higher (i.e., true NW included) between any two official data points east of 48 W (even for just a very short time) and later hit the contiguous U.S. Basically, climo is saying to me that over recorded history there basically has never been enough high pressure (strong enough and/or long enough) to the north to bring any storm far enough west to hit the contiguous U.S. when there was weak enough pressure to the north prior to that that allowed any NW movement east of 48W.Since 1851, for storms that did had any 315+ degree movement east of 48 W, the furthest west/closest to the U.S. any one got was Gladys of 1975 (73W/~300 miles from NC). The second closest was Irene of 2005 (70.2W/~400 miles from NC).

Gladys of 1975 track link:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...LADYS/track.gif

I'm not sure what your point is, Larry, but you don't have to look all the way back to before 1851 to find a TS that tracked NW east of 48W, just back to 2004 with Lisa. Lisa tracked at 343 degrees from about 44-45 degrees longitude.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/LISA/track.gif

But that's irrelevant. If 91L tracked toward 288 degrees from its current location it would miss the Caribbean. That's just barely WNW. So it could very easily pass north of the Caribbean and head out to sea. I'm not saying it will do that (head out to sea), but it's quite possible and certainly not unprecedented from the current location.

[miamicanes177]

This has the initial signature of a big storm many will have to pay attention to. Even the recurve models bend back west.

Based on history, what happens between now and 48 W may tell me a lot. IF it becomes a trop. cyclone east of 48 W and IF it has any NW movement east of 48 W, that would be a very strong indication to me that it will never hit the lower 48. Here's why I'm saying this:

There is not a single storm on record since 1851 that moved at 315 degrees or higher (i.e., true NW included) between any two official data points east of 48 W (even for just a very short time) and later hit the contiguous U.S. Basically, climo is saying to me that over recorded history there basically has never been enough high pressure (strong enough and/or long enough) to the north to bring any storm far enough west to hit the contiguous U.S. when there was weak enough pressure to the north prior to that that allowed any NW movement east of 48W.Since 1851, for storms that did had any 315+ degree movement east of 48 W, the furthest west/closest to the U.S. any one got was Gladys of 1975 (73W/~300 miles from NC). The second closest was Irene of 2005 (70.2W/~400 miles from NC).

Gladys of 1975 track link:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...LADYS/track.gif

Wow that is amazing. This is going to have a very hard time to head harmlessly out to sea. It is not a named stormed yet and isn't heading NW. The caribbean and USA must keep a very very close eye on this developing situation.

[wxman57]

Wow that is amazing. This is going to have a very hard time to head harmlessly out to sea. It is not a named stormed yet and isn't heading NW. The caribbean and USA must keep a very very close eye on this developing situation.

See my post just above yours, miamicanes177. And hcane27's post on page 10. About 1/3 of all storms in the vicinity of 91L recurved and were fish.

[MWatkins]

I think Larry's point has been misread.

His point, I think, is that no system moving at 315 before 48W has ever hit the US...not the other way around.

So...if this wave is moving at 315 degrees before it passes 48W...it's going to turn away before hitting the US.

MW

[hurricanetrack]

the Dvprak estimates apparantly are too weak to receive a too weak this morning. This implies development should be slow

Also, the globals... I am not sure what to make of them as they all stop the storm now when it is moving to the west steadily

That is right Derek. The latest hurricane models show 270 at 12knots. So where is the NW heading coming from that others are mentioning? The globals have performed pretty poorly this season in cyclogenesis and intensity. And...the longer this takes to develop.....you guys know the rest....

[miamicanes177]

That is right Derek. The latest hurricane models show 270 at 12knots. So where is the NW heading coming from that others are mentioning? The globals have performed pretty poorly this season in cyclogenesis and intensity. And...the longer this takes to develop.....you guys know the rest....

If the models were right last week this thing would be heading NW right now and already out to sea. We can clearly see it is moving west and there are no signs of an imminent shift to the NW.

[gatorcane]

Three observations as I look at this invest this morning:

-its organizing more with more convection forming near the center
-it continues to move Westerly. I see no NW movement with this thing
-its a HUGE area of showers/thunderstorms.....

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
Hi guys. so wheres 91L's center.
i see some convection to the west of 91L do you think that convection will get absorbed by 91L?

[KWT]

FWIW the last 8-12 GFS runs has had this system moving WNW/NW during Tuesday but on a westerly track till then. The early models were too agressive but they all had any system heading NW around 45-50W. It what it does afterwards where it goes pete tong.

I'm still thinking a track close to Georges upto 70-75W then weakness in the high will likely be present (as it was for Gabby) and I don't really see a NW track, myabe a WNW though.

Remember while it is deep rght now, it is pretty far east as well when all is said and done.

[Sanibel]

I know I'm probably boring people with this, but this is identical to Felix where a vortex was spinning under ill-defined convection and looking unorganized up until it snapped together in the Caribbean. This is a weird, repeating 2007 phenomenon.

Can't expect anything but a hurricane further down the road on this one. And from the looks of it, a big September one. Even the wave out ahead of it is convecting.

[storms in NC]

I alway go by 20 before the 55 is most of the time out to sea. JMO
But I think this will make something of it's self. Just have to wait a few day. They seem to want to take their time this year. Where You all know more about that than I do right now.

[Brent]

It needs to start gaining major latitude if it's going to be a fish. 10 N and approaching 40 W??? I don't think so.

This is looking like a classic large peak of the season major hurricane.

[LarryWx]

Interesting point, Larry. Does that take into account the latitude issue? How many storms have been as far south as 10 N, moved NW, and recurved? In my limited experience following the tropics, it seems that the southern formation/tracks have been all the rage this year and something that starts this far south might be able to move NW and be pushed west later more easily than in the past.

I don't have a breakdown by latitude. My way of looking at the low latitude is that the chances of it actually turning fully NW east of 48 W are probably a good bit lower than if it were at a good bit higher lat. So, perhaps it won't do what the GFDL says. However, if it does once it becomes a tropical cyclone, climo says it has no more than a tiny chance of ever hitting the contiguous U.S.

[Brent]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10-15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[mattpetre]

I've got a feeling this is going to be an obvious monster by Wednesday... I'm not going to speculate too much on path other than a full recurve looks less likely with each passing moment.

Appears to be wrapping up pretty good now.

[canegrl04]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10-15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

It looks like we may have a strong hurricane in it's early stages of development.Whereever it winds up,its going to do damage (I don't believe this one is a fish)

[MWatkins]

It is hard to see what the globals are up to here...

The GFS and NOGAPS seem to leave enough ridging westward from 50W to keep anything developing on a WNW course for a while...although the UKMET is suggesting a mid/low will break off and slip back under the subtropical ridge and perhaps create a weakness in the steering flow in the western Atlantic.

Given the propensity for a rightward bias in the central Atlantic this year...and the fact this is moving at 270/12...it's got a chance to get across.

The big question...back to Larry's post...is can it get to 50W without heading NW in the process?

MW

[Derek Ortt]

if it is going to miss... it had better stop moving completely like yesterday. The models have this stalling at roughly 40W.... why, I am not sure. maybe they think this system is already north of where it actually is

[LarryWx]

I'm not sure what your point is, Larry, but you don't have to look all the way back to before 1851 to find a TS that tracked NW east of 48W, just back to 2004 with Lisa. Lisa tracked at 343 degrees from about 44-45 degrees longitude.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/LISA/track.gif

But that's irrelevant. If 91L tracked toward 288 degrees from its current location it would miss the Caribbean. That's just barely WNW. So it could very easily pass north of the Caribbean and head out to sea. I'm not saying it will do that (head out to sea), but it's quite possible and certainly not unprecedented from the current location.

You misread my post and misinterpreted my point:

1) I didn't say no T.C. has tracked NW east of 48 west since 1851. I said that no T.C. has tracked NW east of 48 and later hit the contiguous U.S.

2) I'm not saying the opposite means it would have to hit the U.S. So, I agree that there are many examples of a storm not moving NW at all east of 48 W and then missing the lower 48.

[MWatkins]

Oh and also...moisture should not be ain inhibiting factor at all...WV imagery suggests there is a huge moisture envelope to work with...

MW