Post-92L: Discussions & Imagery

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:28 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

Gone from NRL. Continue the discussion here!

Three Blind Mice · #2 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:53 am

Still turning and trying.....

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... is_east+12

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:56 am

Like I said last night this has to be watched as the northern part of the wave moves towards the Bahamas where in 2005 we saw two cases, Katrina and Franklin, that developed in the area and before getting there the systems were almost invisible.

I don't say that it will develop but due to the time of the year, everything has to be watched.

flwxwatcher · #4 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 11:27 am

HURAKAN wrote:Like I said last night this has to be watched as the northern part of the wave moves towards the Bahamas where in 2005 we saw two cases, Katrina and Franklin, that developed in the area and before getting there the systems were almost invisible.

I don't say that it will develop but due to the time of the year, everything has to be watched.

Hurrakan.. I agree, this wave still needs to be watched to see what happens to it as it approaches the Bahamas.

Ed Mahmoud · #5 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:07 pm

Former 90L- Just watched the Bastardi video, he admits he thought this would already be a cyclone by now, and he isn't quite as bullish, but with front dropping into Texas bringing Northerly winds to Western GOMEX, and shear relaxing, he says it is still possible. Not big ticket, apparently.

Former 92L- Will be in a favorable area when it reaches Bahamas, hasn't named a target, says storms should start increasing tomorrow. May be big ticket.

91L- Will enter Caribbean, but at higher latitude than Dean/Felix due to weakening of South American heat low with progression into Fall. No target yet, but he implied could be big.

JB also pointed out that while he was overdone on intensity of Gabrielle, he doesn't know anyone else who picked up as early as he did on it, and he is 3 for 4 calling "rabbit out of the hat" (Barry, Erin, Gabrielle) development.

Don't want to get any more detailed than that, hate to violate copyright on the AccuWeather PPV.

alan1961 · #6 Postby **alan1961** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:15 pm

does anyone detect a slight turning in the blob over the islands?..it looks like a hook in the western side of it.

#7 Postby **shortwave** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:34 pm

believe that would be mid level turning

#8 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:39 pm

Maybe this one is the one to watch; its convection has not utterly died like ex92L's yesterday, at least not on the eastern side, though I probably just jinxed it.

#9 Postby **Fego** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:47 pm

SW winds reported in Guadalupe, according to Univision Met. She used to work for the NWS in SJ.

#10 Postby **Fego** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:55 pm

Looking at the visible sat you can see a LC, may be a MLC.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #11 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:56 pm

TPC 2:05pm Discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 20N.
A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
WAVE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 60W-63W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP FAIRLY
WELL IN THE SHIP/BUOY DATA AND SATELLITE PHOTOS. THE WAVE IS
GENERATING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ISLANDS...
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND ANTIGUA. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

Ed Mahmoud · #12 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:06 pm

Fego wrote:SW winds reported in Guadalupe, according to Univision Met. She used to work for the NWS in SJ.

OT, the good looking Univision met that has a lot of videos on YouTube?

HurricaneMaster_PR · #13 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:09 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Fego wrote:SW winds reported in Guadalupe, according to Univision Met. She used to work for the NWS in SJ.

OT, the good looking Univision met that has a lot of videos on YouTube?

LOL, no..

Its Ada Monzon, a well respected meteorologist here in Puerto Rico :wink:

#14 Postby **msbee** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:20 pm

clouds rolling in here but no rain yet. It is very sticky and feels like it will pour down any minute. There is little to no wind.

current conditions at Antigua
2 PM (18) Sep 10 71 (22) 69 (21) 29.97 (1015) E 12
1 PM (17) Sep 10 71 (22) 69 (21) 30.03 (1017) Variable 2
Noon (16) Sep 10 71 (22) 69 (21) 30.00 (1016) SSW 14 light rain with thunder

current conditions at St. Maarten......18.1 63.1
2 PM (18) Sep 10 87 (31) 71 (22) 30.00 (1016) ESE 10
1 PM (17) Sep 10 86 (30) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) E 12 light rain showers

punkyg · #15 Postby **punkyg** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:20 pm

I think this ex92L will develop, but i don't know how the shear is over the system. can some be nice and pull up a shear map for me.

ronjon · #16 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:37 pm

From NWS Key West AFD this afternoon:

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OF COURSE A HUGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OUT THIS FAR. THE GFS DROPS A DEEP LAYER TROF FROM THE CENTRAL STATES DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE GFS IS BRINGING THIS TROF INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...IT SHOWS A RIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE KEYS...WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS/WESTERN CUBA. NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL MAINTAIN CLIMATOLOGICAL WINDS AND POPS.
&&

Nimbus · #17 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:08 pm

JB thinks this will develop in the Bahamas and the gfs is showing a closed low headed west in the straits just missing the trough. So if it were to spin up early north of PR the trough might pull it north?

The pro mets have all declared this thing dead but I swear I can still see it rolling over in its grave.

#18 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:09 pm

Not sure what everbody is looking at. The MLC has spun itself out around 19N/60W. Is there any circulation under the convection over the islands, if so where? Seems this convection will traverse over PR & Hispanola, seems unlikely this will develop. Local mets are keeping a close eye on it., I guess they are bored.

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:12 pm

Interesting observations:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

SHIP S 1800 15.90 -62.50 102 302 80 21.0 - 6.6 3.0 - - 30.02 +0.03 82.4 84.2 - 12.4 8 - 4.9 2.0 110 - - 70 ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 1800 13.30 -59.90 120 148 70 19.0 - 6.6 3.0 - - 30.09 +0.04 80.1 - - 1.2 6 - 4.9 3.0 70 6.6 3.0 70 ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 1800 13.40 -63.60 179 238 70 12.0 - 1.6 2.0 - - 29.93 -0.05 82.4 - - 12.4 6 - 4.9 5.0 60 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
41100 O 1800 15.90 -57.90 187 73 90 13.0 - 4.3 6 - - 29.93 -0.06 83.1 - 77.0 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 1800 18.90 -62.50 249 340 80 18.1 - 1.6 3.0 - - 30.01 -0.05 89.6 - 74.8 6.2 3 - 3.3 7.0 100 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -

#20 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:50 pm

Hmmm..convection from the south has been racing towards the old MLC throughout the day...

looks like it is trying to get together again...

meanwhile 91L looks to be decreasing in overall thunderstorm and shower activity...

gosh the tropics love to tease don't they.

I'm still watching ex-92L closely..

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