Post-90L: Discussions & Imagery: T1.0/1.0

[HeeBGBz]

I'm just a little surprised, because it looks better now than it ever has.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It's still on a floater.

[HURAKAN]

HeeBGBz, you make a great point. Lets see what happens over the next 12 to 24 hrs.

[Stormcenter]

I am looking at the area south of central LA. as a point of interest.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[jeff]

Based on visible images and surface data there appears to be an area of low pressure SSE of Galveston or due E of Brownsville. The thing looks better defined at the surface than Erin ever did...just needs some convection to sustain. Could see something develop here over the next 24-36 hours as upper air winds become more favorable.

[Cellrock]

Is this system moving at all? very slow if it is. I just wondering how much time it has over water,since conditions will improve for development.

[Stormcenter]

Based on visible images and surface data there appears to be an area of low pressure SSE of Galveston or due E of Brownsville. The thing looks better defined at the surface than Erin ever did...just needs some convection to sustain. Could see something develop here over the next 24-36 hours as upper air winds become more favorable.

Thanks for your input!

[HURAKAN]

WOW. That's a change. I guess 90L will be back at NRL soon.

I find funny that we all believed that 91L or 92L could become depressions way before 90L, but if my eyes are not making it up, 90L is looking pretty darn good.

[HURAKAN]

10/1745 UTC 25.3N 93.5W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[PTrackerLA]

WOW. That's a change. I guess 90L will be back at NRL soon.

I find funny that we all believed that 91L or 92L could become depressions way before 90L, but if my eyes are not making it up, 90L is looking pretty darn good.

Yeah go figure that 90L was dropped earlier and yet it looks more impressive than it ever did. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see a TS out of this.

[KatDaddy]

Interesting GOM observations

WGOM Bouy

Conditions at 42002 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 79 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 97.2 °F

Central GOM Bouy

Conditions at 42001 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SW ( 215 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.9 °F

[frederic79]

While this thing is more or less stationary, there is tremendously high oceanic heat content in the gulf, not just at the surface (well it IS September 10th). That alone is cause for some concern if convection persists.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well maybe I'm seeing things again but it sure looks like
something is definitely trying to organize in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[PTrackerLA]

It will be interesting to see what the afternoon AFD's make out of this but with a front progged to sag down into our area things could be very wet this week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am very surprised that this invest was dropped considering it looks much better today than it ever did in the past.

[Stormcenter]

I am very surprised that this invest was dropped considering it looks much better today than it ever did in the past.

Yeah that is pretty much the tune on the board today.
Oh well we shall see if they put it back up or not.

[Stratosphere747]

I guess I'm the odd man out, as I see very little of any substance with ex 90.

[Stormcenter]

Hello Mr. Odd Man.

Seriously though, looking at the attached loop
the spin is pretty obvious.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[tailgater]

From the 3 buoys in the SW GOM we have South, NE and West winds already, If T-storms develop near the center it would Probably ramp rather quickly.

[SouthFloridawx]

I guess I'm the odd man out, as I see very little of any substance with ex 90.

I agree, with the Upper Level Troughiness in the Caribbean... we won't see any sustained convection over a certain area.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.html

[Pearl River]

Mobile AFD

000
FXUS64 KMOB 102030
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]: UPPER AIR MAP ANALYSIS TODAY HAS
A TROF POSITIONED FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE RIDGING
CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON DOWN INTO TEXAS. OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...A WEAK
SURFACE TROF EXISTS WITH A 1012 MB LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO ERODE AS MID LEVEL ENERGY
DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE ENERGY
SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO BRING THE CENTRAL U.S. FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...MID GULF SURFACE TROF MOVES NORTHWARD. THE STAGE
APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A WET PERIOD AS THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES MERGE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RECOVERS TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH GULF FEATURE AS THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. DID MAKE SOME
MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BY A FEW
DEGREES...WITH CLOUD COVER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE. /10